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Central PA - late January 2013


MAG5035

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I was wondering the same thing. MAG/Joe, where you at? The enthusiasts need guidance!

 

Sorry guys, I was up on the slopes all day. Had to enjoy the nice snow before it gets screwed up early this week haha.

 

Precip is arriving here and it's already pretty much all sleet, so warm air aloft is already seeming to make inroads quickly... which actually might not be a good thing. With this setup depth of the warm air aloft will increase rapidly enough that it will begin to favor a liquid scenario as the night wears on, which for the colder locations east of the Alleghenies could pose for some big problems in terms of a rapid freeze up if it is raining into areas that are starting in the low-mid 20s. I would certainly use extreme caution going places first thing in the morning. One of those events where there won't be a ton of QPF but a potential for high impact. 

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same here...started as snow / sleet mix but now is all snow.

Mixing is trying to push in, latest radar scan has a pretty big mixing signature out towards Indiana, PA. Beam height is about 4700ft so pretty close to the 850 layer. Trying out winter color scheme I found for the reflectivity that a GRlevel user made for mixed precip. Reflectivity (with the winter color palette on the left) and the correlation coefficient dual pol product on the right. 

 

post-1507-0-49014100-1359359975_thumb.pn

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Yep, they are basically saying nuisance, guess I cant disagree. Must be something they think is unimpressive.

 

 

Well, to me anyway, what is forecasted is a bit unimpressive. This was snipped out of today's forecast for my location.

 

Total daytime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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Its not over yet!

 

The precip shield was always expected to become scattered after the initial wedge of snow/sleet. Look at the HRRR compared to the NWS current radar:

 

HRRR 7am:

post-1406-0-33844300-1359373777_thumb.pn

 

NWS 6:28am:

post-1406-0-49694300-1359373787_thumb.pn

 

Not to mention that the 6z NAM, if correct, doesn't have ZR beginning until now (12z) in UNV:

 

 

130128/1200Z   6  16007KT  25.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.041    6:1|  0.7|| 0.09|| 0.04|| 0.15    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130128/1300Z   7  16008KT  26.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.021    6:1|  0.7|| 0.09|| 0.06|| 0.17    0|  0|100130128/1400Z   8  16010KT  27.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.012    6:1|  0.7|| 0.09|| 0.08|| 0.18    0|  0|100130128/1500Z   9  17010KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.056    6:1|  0.7|| 0.09|| 0.14|| 0.24    0|  0|100130128/1600Z  10  18010KT  30.3F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.028    6:1|  0.7|| 0.09|| 0.17|| 0.27    0|  0|100130128/1700Z  11  18010KT  31.0F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009    6:1|  0.7|| 0.09|| 0.17|| 0.27    0|  0|100130128/1800Z  12  19009KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.026    6:1|  0.7|| 0.09|| 0.20|| 0.30    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--

 

And 14z in KIPT:

 

 

130128/1000Z   4  13003KT  23.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0130128/1100Z   5  13004KT  23.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053    7:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0130128/1200Z   6  15004KT  23.6F  SNOW   14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064   11:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130128/1300Z   7  14006KT  24.2F  SNPL   10:1| 0.5|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.051   11:1|  1.8|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.17   64| 36|  0130128/1400Z   8  15008KT  25.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.026   11:1|  1.8|| 0.04|| 0.03|| 0.19    0|  0|100130128/1500Z   9  16007KT  27.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.056   11:1|  1.8|| 0.04|| 0.09|| 0.25    0|  0|100130128/1600Z  10  16010KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.039   11:1|  1.8|| 0.04|| 0.13|| 0.29    0|  0|100130128/1700Z  11  17010KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029   11:1|  1.8|| 0.04|| 0.16|| 0.32    0|  0|100130128/1800Z  12  17008KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003   11:1|  1.8|| 0.04|| 0.16|| 0.32    0|  0|100

 

Finally, if you don't believe the modeling...check out the SPC mesoscale discussion for parts of our area:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0056.html

 

post-1406-0-75358400-1359374025_thumb.gi

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What the hell has to happen for a 4-8" snow around these parts anymore.harrisburg south,state college and points north have already gotten decent all snow events while everyone else is the screw zone. Just fed up and hope everybody can get a storm to lay down 4-8 inches atleast, would be a welcomed sight

 

:violin:   8-10" events aren't common in these parts.

 

 

 

transitioned from snow to pellets to zr within the last 30 mins. Temp is 29 degrees.

 

Roads are covered in slush.

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Prob a1/4" of snow here began changing to sleet around 630 then quickly over to light freezing rain, now only drizzle not exactly freezing on surfaces with a temp of 31 degrees. NWS needs some credit this was a non event as predicted. What the hell has to happen for a 4-8" snow around these parts anymore.harrisburg south,state college and points north have already gotten decent all snow events while everyone else is the screw zone. Just fed up and hope everybody can get a storm to lay down 4-8 inches atleast, would be a welcomed sight

have you been outside? i would bet it is freezing on surfaces!

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Still very light zr here - it's freezing on contact on untreated surfaces. My car windshield got pretty icy in my 5 minute drive to work.

yeah, after YorkPa posted about it not freezing, i went outside, like you said, its like a fine mist, freezing on contact. Everything has a light ice coating on it.

 

Edit to add- After Fridays 2 1/2" imby, my total for 2012/13 13.75" exceeds last years 13.25"

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