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Central PA - late January 2013


MAG5035

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According to my latest forecast, it's going to be almost like a minimal event around here. What is State College seeing that the models aren't?

 

Monday; Snow and freezing rain before 11am, then freezing rain between 11am and 1pm, then rain after 1pm. High near 34. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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Not a meteorologist. But from my experience usually you want high pressure to be located up by Maine so the flow turns to the NE and cold air can remain funneled in east of the Alleghenies. High pressure seems to be moving due east like it will slide of the coast.  Winds in AOO and JST are out of the south. If i am wrong feel free to correct.   

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ABC 27 weather has Harrisburg only reaching 32 at 12 noon tomorrow and only reaching 34 by 5pm.  I still think that with one week of sub-freezing temps, all surfaces are exceptionally cold right now and freezing rain could easily still be occurring even with an observed temp of 33.

 

I guess the real question is just how much liquid is going to fall in total before temps rise above 32?  Maybe that's why NWS isn't appearing as concerned with their less than 0.1" of ice accumulation pretty much everywhere central/south.

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