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Central PA - late January 2013


MAG5035

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After the 12z observations for State College came in, 2012 is considered the warmest year on record out of the last 117 years (when records in State College started). With maximums the 7th warmest, this was clearly achieved by the warm overnight lows.

Beat out 1998 by two thousandths of a degree:

2012: 52.790°F

1998: 52.788°F

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I believe the 2.5" at MDT. I live pretty close and I had a bit less than that.

I'm sure this storm their 2 1/2 is correct, as the farther east the numbers dropped. i guess my comment was just of them in general, from over the years. i know in the past, like during PD2 as an example,many peoples measurements were way different then what they had.

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quote system is all messed up along with everything else that you noted.

 

The post I was referring to was deleted, but basically said that we get nothing in january, 1" in february, then we have winter of 2013/2014 to look forward to, with no proof or reason given.

 

I believe they just did a minor upgrade to the forum software and that's what is causing these issues.

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Heres to a foot plus left in this winter!

 

Hope so. Per the GFS QPF chart on coolwx, it's going to be rather dry this side of the apps through the 9th, but there is still PLENTY of time left in the season.

 

IIRC, some of the best snow storms of the season for the LSV have been late feb/early march. Hell, the storm of the century ('93) was mid-march.

 

Anything's better than 2001/2002. Lancaster averaged 5" that season, even worse than last winter. :axe:

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Continues to look pretty quiet for most of the short and medium range as we press into January. This calm period doesn't really surprise me, as we had a pretty significant blitz of storms in the approx 10 days or so that started leading into Xmas and just ended prior to ringing in the New Year. Counting the GLC/attempted miller B that ended up being an icy surprise for some of us on December 20th, we had 4 noteworthy systems in the December 20-29th timeframe. I said earlier in the month we'd probably have our chances as we got around the holidays, and depending on where you were... there was either 2 or 3 that delivered and has most of us in good shape snowfall wise. Quite something considering how much the early month sent temp departures thru the roof and the rest of the month really wasn't that cold.. culminating in a significantly warmer than average December. 

 

We'll get through the rest of the week seasonably cold (a bit below average) and moderate some as we get into early next week. Models have been pretty strong at suggesting a warmup later next week. This is supported by a continued +NAO/AO as well as the +PNA returning back to neutral/somewhat negative as well as the potential for the MJO to spend some time in the torchy phase 4 and 5 (The magnitude and length of which varies depending on forecast model). If we do get a thawing type warm up, I don't think it will be one that sticks around for much more than 3-5 days. One also has to consider the much, much larger snowpack in place over Canada and the CONUS this year. While a torch like say the 12z Euro was suggesting (or tonights 0z for that matter) would eventually not be denied, the snowpack will certainly mitigate a significant warmup at the surface for a time. I doubt we'll end up with shorts weather, but I think we'll have a period of decently above avg temps. For now, I'd say we end up with something to the tune of spending a few days with PA highs ranging in the low 40s (North central/Laurels) to low 50s (southeast) ahead of some eventual system cutting up . That's just my take on a warmup currently. Obviously, reality could end up being several days of 50-55+ or it could also end up being shorter lived and not as warm. Euro has been more robust on a big warm up than the GFS. 

 

Beyond that in the longer range, it does appear that we could turn potentially much colder... or at least return to kind of temp regime we are seeing currently. We already have one sign in the form of sudden stratrospheric warming (SSW) beginning to occur now (being discussed in some other threads). These SSW's can be a precursor to arctic air being released from the upper latitudes (ie a -AO) and have a lag time of a couple weeks. That said, it of course doesn't necessarily mean the arctic gets released on our side of the globe. GFS and company has looked fairly decent in its long range with returning to cold weather. We shall see, for now though.. its only the 3rd of January. Lots can change for better or worse. 

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Where did this come from? Our forecast is for mostly cloudy today:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
852 AM EST FRI JAN 4 2013

PAZ012-017>019-027-045-046-049-050-041445-
CLEARFIELD PA-MIFFLIN PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON
PA-SNYDER PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN
LYCOMING PA-UNION PA-
852 AM EST FRI JAN 4 2013

...SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT
CENTRE...CLEARFIELD...NORTHEASTERN MIFFLIN...SOUTHERN CLINTON...
SOUTHERN LYCOMING...SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND WESTERN SNYDER COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS OR LOCAL
SQUALLS WAS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRE...CLEARFIELD...
CLINTON... LYCOMING...MIFFLIN...SNYDER AND UNION COUNTIES AT 843 AM
EST. THE SNOW SHOWERS WERE GENERALLY MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE HALF MILE IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS OR
LOCALIZED SQUALLS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 188...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 66
AND 85.

USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING THROUGH THESE AREAS THIS MORNING AS
VISIBILITY AND ROAD CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE QUICKLY OVER A SHORT
DISTANCE AND PERIOD OF TIME.

LAT...LON 4113 7881 4120 7878 4122 7835 4114 7723
      4080 7728 4085 7881

$$

FORECASTER: DEVOIR

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