JamieOber Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lol, no . Maybe you can finally lace up those skates yeah looked like a lil of everything.rain, frzn a lil snow. with temps in the 30's. Bit concerned about a mess like what happened in western PA back on the 10th: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/local/neighborhoods-north/butler-county-car-crash-kills-2-boys-669717/ The temps were like 35-36 when that happened but road surfaces were still below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 All aboard the Donsutherland Train: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/?p=2033252 Before anyone gets too excited, note that one of his analogs featured a cold/snowless February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam says warm fat lady up for Friday event. Despise biting cold and dry/flizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Torch later? stupid GLCs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Torch later? stupid GLCs Not really. Maybe a day or so's worth. This is not a warm pattern we are in, not by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah a day near 40 doesn't really torch IMO when the surrounding days struggle to reach 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah a day near 40 doesn't really torch IMO when the surrounding days struggle to reach 30. Agreed, even if it gets above that for a day. It's no different than 1-2 days of cold during a warm spell. One thing I recommend to everyone is browse the medium-long range threads in the other subforums, esp. the main forecast forum, New England, Philly and mid-Atlantic. There is some good discussion going on among red-taggers. We have a lot going for us up until mid-Feb - favorable MJO and other indices, good analogs, Euro weeklies etc. Does that mean we get a monster snowstorm? No, but there are likely going to be some opportunities for small/medium events. That's why I am fairly optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Honestly if we lack snow I would welcome a nice torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Honestly if we lack snow I would welcome a nice torch. Cold weather like this is vital for croplands and insect control. It helps the land to rest and mitigates pest populations...nature's birth control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lol its also torture on the heating bill...but hey I gotta deal I live in Central Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cold weather like this is vital for croplands and insect control. It helps the land to rest and mitigates pest populations...nature's birth control. Yes! Last year both insects and fungal diseases like blight and powdery mildew were a constant battle in my garden, as were voles and rabbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 YUP! This cold will really help cut back on mosquitoes and other insects come June and July, they have been very bad the past two years because we didn't have a long cold spell. This also is good for plants, believe it or not. Plants here need a cycle like this, reaching very cold and reaching very hot in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam says warm fat lady up for Friday event. Despise biting cold and dry/flizzards. GFS says sit down beeyatch and comes in with advisory snows for all (.21 for us, .19 for you, .15 for MDT but I guess ratios would be good). I honestly think sometimes the NAM and the GFS have AI and just hate each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nuclear-effect snow? Never heard of this: https://twitter.com/wunderground/statuses/294113443261329409 Edit: More details on it: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=367522830012473&set=a.121955251235900.20529.101608723270553&type=1 An inch of snow from steam off a nuke plant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cold weather like this is vital for croplands and insect control. It helps the land to rest and mitigates pest populations...nature's birth control. bingo. people say its a waste of cold. it's not. if they farmed they would understand how important it is for it to get cold during the winter. and really this is not out of the ordinary cold (well maybe for recent winters). to me this is just your typical mid winter cold spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Bit concerned about a mess like what happened in western PA back on the 10th: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/local/neighborhoods-north/butler-county-car-crash-kills-2-boys-669717/ The temps were like 35-36 when that happened but road surfaces were still below freezing. That was a gut wrenching story. Mother appeared to have done everything right but just wrong place at the wrong time and the vehicle impacted in probably the worst case scenario for those kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That was a gut wrenching story. Mother appeared to have done everything right but just wrong place at the wrong time and the vehicle impacted in probably the worst case scenario for those kids. That's terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro's more or less the same as last night. .14 for me, .13 for IPT, .13 for MDT. I think 1-3 Friday is a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cold weather like this is vital for croplands and insect control. It helps the land to rest and mitigates pest populations...nature's birth control. Yes! Last year both insects and fungal diseases like blight and powdery mildew were a constant battle in my garden, as were voles and rabbits. cold weather seems to help with human reproduction as well. We had a temp of -1.1 at 6:30 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NWS on the Friday stormSOLUTION POSSIBILITIES RANGEFROM THE STRONGER/HEAVIER UKMET...TO THE INTERMEDIATE ECMWF...TOTHE WEAKER/FLATTER GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THEGUIDANCE SPREAD IN SEVERAL AREAS...MAKING ITS SOLUTION LESSRELIABLE. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 During these borderline events I tend to like the UKMET/EURO. They don't waffle as much as a certain North American Model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 "THE NAM IS ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD" No sh1t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 15z SREF's don't look too bad, high 1+ probs for most of the state for Friday's system. Not really any 4+ probs. Probably suggestive of a 2-4" type deal. There are still several members way south. I still think this ends up the widespread advisory snowfall that was progged a few days ago before the models got pretty wet QPF wise (prior to burying the system)...at least from I-80 south. We're not gonna need much precip to get there, this is going to be a really cold event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 15z SREF's don't look too bad, high 1+ probs for most of the state for Friday's system. Not really any 4+ probs. Probably suggestive of a 2-4" type deal. There are still several members way south. I still think this ends up the widespread advisory snowfall that was progged a few days ago before the models got pretty wet QPF wise (prior to burying the system)...at least from I-80 south. We're not gonna need much precip to get there, this is going to be a really cold event. Looking like the ratio's is going to be pretty high. "around 20-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 During these borderline events I tend to like the UKMET/EURO. They don't waffle as much as a certain North American Model. "THE NAM IS ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD" No sh1t. cave goes the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Its 7 imby and clear with calm winds...whats keeping us from getting to 0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Its 7 imby and clear with calm winds...whats keeping us from getting to 0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Its 7 imby and clear with calm winds...whats keeping us from getting to 0? That's a good question. Looking at satellite, doesn't look like any clouds around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Its 7 imby and clear with calm winds...whats keeping us from getting to 0? That's a good question. Looking at satellite, doesn't look like any clouds around. Well we are below the predicted low already. We could see zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 latest NAM run is coming in more amplified and slightly more north than the previous run, with DC/Baltimore now over 0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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