Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I should note that as an Eskimo, I love snow like no other and hope that somehow we manage one good 6" - 10" event this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Pretty cold, but progressive flow looks to persist across the Commonwealth of PA and New York State over the next 5 - 7 days. Outside of the lake effect region, any organized snow threat should be from quick hitting clippers that drop 1" - 4" of snow. I do think a storm will impact locations south of I-80 Friday, but with it being moisture starved and no downstream blocking it is an advisory level event at best. Thee preponderance of American and global numerical guidance continues to suggest the system never truly gets it's act together until the storm is offshore and rotates around the long wave trough over eastern Canada. Plus the antecedent is incredibly dry which could equate to a portion of the storm being virga. Wish I had better news, but any widepsread warning event snowfall seems highly unlikely during the remainder of this winter in Pennsylvania You were calling the Friday storm to be a miss several days ago, citing specific reasons (that currently are modeled). I hope to hell you're wrong - but uh I'm betting on you being right at this point. Dam you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Pretty cold, but progressive flow looks to persist across the Commonwealth of PA and New York State over the next 5 - 7 days. Outside of the lake effect region, any organized snow threat should be from quick hitting clippers that drop 1" - 4" of snow. I do think a storm will impact locations south of I-80 Friday, but with it being moisture starved and no downstream blocking it is an advisory level event at best. Thee preponderance of American and global numerical guidance continues to suggest the system never truly gets it's act together until the storm is offshore and rotates around the long wave trough over eastern Canada. Plus the antecedent is incredibly dry which could equate to a portion of the storm being virga. Wish I had better news, but any widepsread warning event snowfall seems highly unlikely during the remainder of this winter in Pennsylvania Yeah, looks that way for the next 5-7 days. One thing that's fairly encouraging for the remainder of winter is the Euro Weeklies have been fairly consistent about the first half of Feb being both rather cold and also stormy. I think that HM (the real HM that posts here, not the AccuWeather one) has said that as well. Hard to say if we get another warning criteria snow this winter up here but at least it's not last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Went walking along the river at lunch btw - ice is RAPIDLY building up on the river here downtown. It's crazy the difference from last night at 5 and today at 1. It's a good 50 feet out from the banks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Went walking along the river at lunch btw - ice is RAPIDLY building up on the river here downtown. It's crazy the difference from last night at 5 and today at 1. It's a good 50 feet out from the banks now. It's amazing how fast it can freeze. You'd think moving water would be slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 People are pulling out the JMA now in the other threads. That's never a good sign for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 People are pulling out the JMA now in the other threads. That's never a good sign for a storm. Has the RDGEX or whatever it is made an appearance yet? That's always good for a laugh too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Went walking along the river at lunch btw - ice is RAPIDLY building up on the river here downtown. It's crazy the difference from last night at 5 and today at 1. It's a good 50 feet out from the banks now. has the river been frozen complete since you have lived here? unreal, Saturday i was sitting on my patio, drinking a cold beer smoking a cheap cigar enjoying the warmth. Today its 16 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You were calling the Friday storm to be a miss several days ago, citing specific reasons (that currently are modeled). I hope to hell you're wrong - but uh I'm betting on you being right at this point. Dam you! He also said back in December that winter was over by MLK day and now look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You were calling the Friday storm to be a miss several days ago, citing specific reasons (that currently are modeled). I hope to hell you're wrong - but uh I'm betting on you being right at this point. Dam you! I make a living (literally) on knowing when to hold and fold. He also said back in December that winter was over by MLK day and now look... I will admit I was wrong about the cold, I did not expect such a pronounced dump of cold air on a relatively snowless ground and unfrozen Great Lakes. Thought those two conditions would greatly temper the airmass, but time shall tell. Could you imagine if there was a fresh 8" - 12" snow pack across the state? Wow would it be even colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Has the RDGEX or whatever it is made an appearance yet? That's always good for a laugh too. My two favorites are the NGM and the Korean model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 has the river been frozen complete since you have lived here? unreal, Saturday i was sitting on my patio, drinking a cold beer smoking a cheap cigar enjoying the warmth. Today its 16 degrees. Yeah, 2009 it was solid ice; I wanted to walk across but I valued my life too much for some silly reason. I'm jealous of you guys that have done it. Hell standing on the bank listening to the flow is scary enough, I'd need new drawers walking on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I make a living (literally) on knowing when to hold and fold. I will admit I was wrong about the cold, I did not expect such a pronounced dump of cold air on a relatively snowless ground and unfrozen Great Lakes. Thought those two conditions would greatly temper the airmass, but time shall tell. Could you imagine if there was a fresh 8" - 12" snow pack across the state? Wow would it be even colder! I was thinking that. We have like an inch on the ground but that doesn't do much for the cold. In other news, the 18Z NAM continues to give us advisory level snows but then again it's the NAM at the LOL range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I didn't want that to come off as disrespectful or bashing, but wanted to point out that you were somewhat wrong in that post last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 :axe: Hasn't I-95 had enough fun with historic storms while we get thrown off to the sideline? The euro isn't historic until you get to Boston. Philly's 6-10, NYC 8-12. I can feel his pain, Jamie. It's been quite awhile since we had a snowfall greater than 8 inches here. The past few winters have, for the most part featured snowfalls of 4 inches or less. It's tough to watch the I-95 corridor, historic or not, get the most snow during the larger storms. Climatolically, we are supposed to be snowier than they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Huge storms are nice, but I'll take the higher overall seasonal snow here and better snowcover in general. Im always rooting for a dumping, but if we get a 2-4" snow here Friday I will be pretty happy. Of course being from Atlanta maybe I have lower standards haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Huge storms are nice, but I'll take the higher overall seasonal snow here and better snowcover in general. Im always rooting for a dumping, but if we get a 2-4" snow here Friday I will be pretty happy. Of course being from Atlanta maybe I have lower standards haha The problem with 2-4 inch snowfalls is that sunlight and the inevitable warm-ups pretty much wipe out the snowpack in between events. Get a good 8-12 inch dumping and that has a decent chance of staying around awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I didn't want that to come off as disrespectful or bashing, but wanted to point out that you were somewhat wrong in that post last month. Who me? Naw it's okay. I've found of late it's best to be incredibly bearish for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Huge storms are nice, but I'll take the higher overall seasonal snow here and better snowcover in general. Im always rooting for a dumping, but if we get a 2-4" snow here Friday I will be pretty happy. Of course being from Atlanta maybe I have lower standards haha I'm with you. Growing up in Texas, you appreciate little snows. Plus it doesn't look like sh1t a week later and brown and grimey. It's similar to t-storms here that people love; I'm like "eh, it's mediocre". Same concept just exchange snow for rain. However thundersnow, that's some kicka$$ stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 People are pulling out the JMA now in the other threads. That's never a good sign for a storm. It seems like we go through this every event we have... where in that Day 4-5 range we see models suppress, weaken, and/or lose the prospective storm system only to bring it back in the short range. So i'm not surprised of the turn in the major models today. I've not thought of this event being much beyond a widespread 2-5" event (with some potential for some higher amounts in the right spots) for PA as we have a progressive pattern and opportunities for the system to deepen are limited. We'll see how it goes the next day or two. Besides, we still have not only the JMA, but the Canadian and UKMET still delivering what looked like a decent system to PA. Thats a winning combo right there haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Who me? Naw it's okay. I've found of late it's best to be incredibly bearish for snow. FWIW, Your being wrong last month was nice for me while I was on holiday upstate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I can feel his pain, Jamie. It's been quite awhile since we had a snowfall greater than 8 inches here. The past few winters have, for the most part featured snowfalls of 4 inches or less. It's tough to watch the I-95 corridor, historic or not, get the most snow during the larger storms. Climatolically, we are supposed to be snowier than they are. I think the last one you guys got was Feb 2010, we all cashed in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12 for the high today. Forecast low is now 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It seems like we go through this every event we have... where in that Day 4-5 range we see models suppress, weaken, and/or lose the prospective storm system only to bring it back in the short range. So i'm not surprised of the turn in the major models today. I've not thought of this event being much beyond a widespread 2-5" event (with some potential for some higher amounts in the right spots) for PA as we have a progressive pattern and opportunities for the system to deepen are limited. We'll see how it goes the next day or two. Besides, we still have not only the JMA, but the Canadian and UKMET still delivering what looked like a decent system to PA. Thats a winning combo right there haha. book it. I was wondering about bringing it back. That's a trend this year for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12 for the high today. Forecast low is now 3. I saw two guys today walking on campus in shorts and a hoodie, complaining about the cold. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Talked to the folks back home. They ended up with a wind driven 3 inches. The low was 5 and made it up to a toasty 10. They said my weather station shows currently 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38972-mjo8-headful-of-snow-hm-february-1-2-storm-thread/ Get on the Feb 2 Train everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Heads up to those in Adams and York counties who have Met-Ed: THEY ARE GOING OFFLINE FROM 2-6 A.M. WHAT THE F?!?!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 btw don't laugh....Ji made a thread this time of the year in 2003 about a monster storm and the next thing you know we got PDII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Re: The power outage- http://www.wgal.com/news/susquehanna-valley/york-adams/Electric-outage-expected-to-affect-thousands-overnight/-/9704248/18239060/-/yw98iiz/-/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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