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Central PA - late January 2013


MAG5035

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

1143 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

PAZ010>012-017>019-041-045-046-180530-

CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-

NORTHERN CLINTON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-

SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-

1143 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLINTON...NORTH CENTRAL

CENTRE...NORTHERN CLEARFIELD...SOUTH CENTRAL LYCOMING...SOUTHEASTERN

CAMERON AND SOUTHEASTERN ELK COUNTIES...

AT 1137 PM EST...A SNOW SQUALL WAS LOCATED FROM KETTLE CREEK STATE

PARK TO FALLS CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SNOW SQUALL. THE SNOW

WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITIES IN THIS SNOW SQUALL TO LESS THAN A

QUARTER OF A MILE. THIS SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT RENOVO...HYNER...PINE

GLEN AND AVIS.

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I am over by State College High School and measured 4.5. Talked to the folks back home they said that it started as a brief period of freezing rain before getting 3inches of snow before flipping back over to freezing rain and having a glaze of ice.

I live right by State High, as well.  

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GFS/Euro have gotten into some decent agreement on progging this late week system around Friday, with some detail differences of course. Both models have also gotten pretty wet with this system as they seem to be pulling Gulf moisture more efficiently and it looks like our more traditional winter event from the sw vs a typical clipper. Now for the differences, 12z Euro tracks the system further south getting the southern half of PA with a moderate snowfall while clipping the northern half with just light snows. The GFS runs the low with the same trajectory, except a good bit further north and its wetter. The 1004ish low tracks right thru PA and presents a ptype scenario similar to our last storm. Northern half of PA would get pretty heavy snows, ptypes indicate ice in the AOO/UNV corridor with rain on either side in the southern half of Penn. 

 

A look at the 12z GEFS mean shows some broadbrushed light QPF and pretty cold 850 temps with no real decipherable low for this time period (both Euro and GFS timed at about 144h). Still about a D6 event so the GEFS means aren't going to really grasp this kind of system too well, but there's clearly not too many members, if any, supporting the op on its deeper system. I tend to lean more toward the Euros take, or at least a GFS/Euro compromise at this juncture.

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True, JST gets serious daming. Shoud be interesting to see low temps.

My bet for MDT is 9.

 

In this scenario JST's elevation (about 2200ft) is a factor. The cold windy NW flow will likely ensure little diurnal range in temps. Also, with 850 and 925 temps progged to be approx -22 (-8ºF) and -16 (3ºF) respectively at these levels, the high elevation stations in the west are simply closer to these levels and thus colder. Those west and northwest stations probably drop below zero at some point Tuesday and Wednesday. The central stations are going to depend on if we can get the wind to settle down one of those nights and have it clear out. Lack of a true deep snowpack is probably going to prevent it from really getting ridiculous if we end up with a calmer night. Regardless, its going to be a very cold first half of the week. 

 

As for snow chances, we're going to have two frontal passages. Sunday the cold front and Monday the arctic front. Tomorrow there's a chance some squalls could survive to places like MDT but instability could be lacking. It'll be something to watch everywhere as the squalls would present a flash freeze threat and potential dangerous travel especially on interstates. 

 

Also, about the possible late week storm.. I didn't really look closely the first time but the Euro's take would be a REALLY cold event if that came to fruition. 850 temps are less than -10ºC in the southern areas that would see the best QPF (0.3-0.4ish) and surface temps would probably be in the mid teens. The Euro never really gets rid of the cold the whole week while the GFS tries to get rid of it more quickly and thus presents the mix threat it had for the Friday storm (18z GFS fwiw colder with same overall track). Should be an interesting battle this week. Since there's no real big shift in the pattern coming I suspect the Arctic air will try to have some staying power and not be easily evacuated. 

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