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Central PA - late January 2013


MAG5035

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Just took a look at the SREFS for tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Far southern York and Lancaster counties (i.e.: Glen Rock, Shrewsbury, Peach Bottom and the Buck) could see an inch or two of wet snow.

That leaves northern Lanco county perfectly sandwiched between last night's snow and now tomorrow. Payback for 2009-2010 no doubt. I'm sitting on about 3" for the season.

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Yeah, we actually are. 

 

We are currently at 19.3 as of midnight, not counting whatever fell after that. Last year we totaled 19.0 for the whole season. 

 

Halfing our January average (prolly a bs way to do it but not sure how else), we should be at 16.6 for the season right now. So, about 115% of normal. Not too shabby, really. Looks somewhat active going forward. 

 

3.7" was what I measured early this morning for the final amount with this storm. That brings total snowfall to 17.8" since Dec 24th and adding the inch from Nov 27th event and roughly 2 inches of BS Lake effect snowfall...I'll call it 20.8" for the season to date give or take an inch. Hopefully we can keep it up and also get our H-burg, York, and Lancaster folks into some good snows. 

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What ever happened to EasternUS/Zach?

Zach is still around / in Shippensburg.  A series of events ticked him off from the forum and he abruptly departed and asked to have his handle deleted.  I still am in touch with him outside of here, although I haven't spoken to him in a couple of weeks.  You can reach him on his facebook page >> hazardous weather prediction page.  But, come to think of it, I haven't seen any posts from him on that page in a while either.  Will have to investigate.  I do wish he'd come back here as I enjoyed his input along with all the other pros.

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Zach is still around / in Shippensburg.  A series of events ticked him off from the forum and he abruptly departed and asked to have his handle deleted.  I still am in touch with him outside of here, although I haven't spoken to him in a couple of weeks.  You can reach him on his facebook page >> hazardous weather prediction page.  But, come to think of it, I haven't seen any posts from him on that page in a while either.  Will have to investigate.  I do wish he'd come back here as I enjoyed his input along with all the other pros.

Hope he's okay. He's had health issues before. 

 

This looks fun: 

 

 

THE HIGH IMPACT WX THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTICFRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTNL MAY EXISTFOR HIGH IMPACT SUB-ADVY /HISA/ SNOWS WHICH COULD CAUSE RAPID WHITE-OUT CONDS. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW-MELT EXPECTEDON SATURDAY...A FLASH FREEZE SITUATION MAY DEVELOP CREATINGTREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

Arctic fronts can put on a nice show. 

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Hope he's okay. He's had health issues before. 

 

This looks fun: 

 

 

THE HIGH IMPACT WX THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTICFRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTNL MAY EXISTFOR HIGH IMPACT SUB-ADVY /HISA/ SNOWS WHICH COULD CAUSE RAPID WHITE-OUT CONDS. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW-MELT EXPECTEDON SATURDAY...A FLASH FREEZE SITUATION MAY DEVELOP CREATINGTREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

Arctic fronts can put on a nice show. 

I don't think we had any good arctic fronts last winter?  It's been awhile since we've had a really impressive one.

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I don't think we had any good arctic fronts last winter?  It's been awhile since we've had a really impressive one.

The last time the Susquehanna was frozen in HBG (or even had ice) was the winter of 2008-09. I'm nearly positive 09-10 didn't have ice, and I know for sure last winter never saw any on the main river stem here.

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I don't think we had any good arctic fronts last winter?  It's been awhile since we've had a really impressive one.

I remember one in the 1970's when the temp was in the 30's and the front went through. 

We had white-out conditions that dropped about an inch of snow and within the hour the temp dropped into the single digits.

I wish I could remember the year but I was probably in my early teens.

As long as you are not out driving in them they are great to see. Sometimes you will get thunder as well.

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The last time the Susquehanna was frozen in HBG (or even had ice) was the winter of 2008-09. I'm nearly positive 09-10 didn't have ice, and I know for sure last winter never saw any on the main river stem here.

 

2010-2011, as did 2009-2010, had fairly minor ice. 

 

Here's ice on the Susky: http://www.flickr.com/photos/imeshome/5324326404/

 

More ice on the Susquehanna: http://susquehannafishing.blogspot.com/2010/01/susquehanna-river-fishing-report-for.html

 

Plus a video from December 2010 taken around City Island: http://videos.pennlive.com/patriot-news/2010/12/ice_on_the_susquehanna_river.html

 

But that ice was really nothing compared to most years. 

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wow jamie is that for us?

 

Yep

 

I don't think we had any good arctic fronts last winter?  It's been awhile since we've had a really impressive one.

Last year we had one on Jan 2, I made a crappy cellphone vid of it coming through. Got about an inch in 45 minutes or so. We had a low of 5 on January 3 but then it was 56 on Jan. 6. Here it is: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30766-central-pa-thread-met-winter-11-12-obsdisco/?p=1238485

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Does anyone remember a terrible whiteout that caused a major.crash on I 80..my moms good friend and son actually passed away in it. I was pretty young at the time but it stuck with me. Info appreciated.

Yes. My next door neighbor responded with Port Matilda VFD. He said it was the most horrible thing he ever witnessed, people screaming and they couldn't get to them. 

 

http://old.post-gazette.com/localnews/20040108crashfolo0108p2.asp

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Just took a look at the SREFS for tomorrow and tomorrow evening.  Far southern York and Lancaster counties (i.e.:  Glen Rock, Shrewsbury, Peach Bottom and the Buck) could see an inch or two of wet snow.

I take that all back.  PA will be dry tomorrow.

 

What ever happened to EasternUS/Zach?

He got angry over some kind of AmWx drama and left.

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I take that all back.  PA will be dry tomorrow.

 

He got angry over some kind of AmWx drama and left.

At least PA really hasn't been in the running to see much from this storm.  I would hate to be in D.C. watching this event unfold on the last few model runs. Looks like a great event for VA/NC though. 

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

From NWS:  BUT ANY ACCUMS SHOULD STAY IN THE SNOW BELT THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. A FEW FLURRIES COULD GET OFF THE ALLEGHENIES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION MUCH S OR E OF CLEARFIELD AND WELLSBORO.

 

What is considered the snow belt?? Just places that has snow on the ground??

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Zach is still around / in Shippensburg.  A series of events ticked him off from the forum and he abruptly departed and asked to have his handle deleted.  I still am in touch with him outside of here, although I haven't spoken to him in a couple of weeks.  You can reach him on his facebook page >> hazardous weather prediction page.  But, come to think of it, I haven't seen any posts from him on that page in a while either.  Will have to investigate.  I do wish he'd come back here as I enjoyed his input along with all the other pros.

Were friends on FB, i have seen some posts there. He's a big hockey nut

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

From NWS:  BUT ANY ACCUMS SHOULD STAY IN THE SNOW BELT THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. A FEW FLURRIES COULD GET OFF THE ALLEGHENIES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION MUCH S OR E OF CLEARFIELD AND WELLSBORO.

 

What is considered the snow belt?? Just places that has snow on the ground??

 

The snow belt is the areas that usually get lake effect or upslope snows. Places like Warren, Bradford, Johnstown, Somerset. Pretty much any of the counties that US 219 crosses through and points west.

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As of 12:18pm I'm still locked in at 32.5 degrees. I'm sure it will probably rise further before the day is over, however, I'm presently working on a 0.9 degree diurnal range for today. I think my smallest diurnal I have ever recorded is about 1.5 degrees many winters ago when we were fogged in with snowpack for over 24 hours and the temp didn't budge. I'll let you know tonight what the final range for today turned out to be.

What did it end up?

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What did it end up?

Hey Sauss...well for a couple of hours early yesterday evening the temp slowly pushed up to 33.7....so I ended up with a 2.1 degree diurnal (31.6 to 33.7) which is still very impressive for a 24-hour period for temps.  It was back down to 32.9 at midnight.  It might have been more impressive because it was holding at 33.1 for many hours prior, then that sudden "spike".

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I know. I cringed when I saw them. 

 

This is just personal opinion, not bashing NWS Sterling whatsoever, but I think they jumped the gun.  The NAM/SREF came in and showed an afternoon commute nightmare and memories of Commuteageddon (hope I spelled that right) probably popped up in people's heads.  The watch really wasn't justified  in my opinion, for DC Metro, but at least they went winter wx advisory instead of straight warnings.

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