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The December 29-30 RPM Miracle--Obs Thread


moneypitmike

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mcd2251.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0122 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LONG ISLAND THRU MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 291922Z - 292315Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR

INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY 23-00Z...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH

02-03Z...AND PERHAPS BEYOND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH DEEPENING

OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST

ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR SINCE MID MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE

INDICATES THAT RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO

THE EVENING HOURS...AND BEYOND...AS IT MIGRATES INTO AREAS SOUTH AND

EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00-03Z. THIS IS EXPECTED

TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION

AND INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MID

ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC

PROFILES ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. EVEN

ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN

THE MID 30S...AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...COLD

ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE

21-00Z TIME FRAME.

HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND

EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT THROUGH MUCH OF RHODE ISLAND AND

A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE

BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...BY AROUND 00Z. THIS SHOULD OCCUR IN

CONJUNCTION WITH THE EVOLUTION OF DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A

NEWLY FORMING AND DEEPENING MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER...AS LIFT

INTENSIFIES IN THE LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR LARGE

DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. SUPPORTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER ON

THE ORDER OF .5 TO .75 INCHES...MAXIMUM SNOW RATES PROBABLY WILL

EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR...PERHAPS APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN

SHORTER-LIVED CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BURSTS.

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Even northern CT is now included in the warning... going with 4-8'' of snowfall. I went with 4-6'' for much of the state with 5-9'' in the NE corner of the state. There are going to be some nice totals within where the heaviest banding sets up. In fact, Kevin may actually be in the prime zone.

Prob Windham for jack
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