Superstorm93 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 not all snow no? that would be epic. It has some obvious temp issues, but the system is a bomb and a psuedo deformation band sits over the NYC metro for about six hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 if that's the case we're going to be in for some surprises.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I did some comparisons from what the 00z NAM soundings showed for my area (by Long Branch) at 1AM. The NAM showed .7C (or 33.2 Fahrenheit) at the surface. I was at 28.4 degrees at the time (or -2C) . This is almost a 3C difference, and 6 degree fahrenheit distance (do the math!) Point being is the NAM soundings are clearly too warm, at least at the surface. It is now 330AM, and my temperature is 30.3 , a 2 degree increase from the cloud cover (as expected). I did GFS soundings earlier, and was too warm at surface as well, although not as pronounced as the NAM. Point being lets not hug the models - low level warmth especially. The model does not take into effect the dynamic cooling which will occur when the precipitation is falling AND the warm surface temps are overdone, at least so far , and usually are. If precipitation is falling at a decent pace - I suspect most areas will be snow for the duration of the event (in the NYC/N NJ/ C NJ area). Any mixing or rain would most likely occur a little bit after the precipitation starts, and the areas highest at risk would obviously be coastal areas - although I'm not convinced it'll mix if precipitation starts falling hard early. If precipitation lightens up, don't be surprised to see the temp jump a degree or 2, and it to be "drizzling" . Not sure we will see the amount 6z NAM depicts - NAM tends to overdo qpf amounts, but we shall see. I'd say many people will see 2-4" from this event - with some areas higher especially those closer to the coast in general - but any mixing that would occur early on may hinder those totals obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 28 Degrees, but not even the slightest idea what to expect tomorrow. I feel like I'm in between the rain/snow line and the moderate/significant snow line. I can't recall the last time I was so uncertain with less than 24 hours before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 New srefs also bring a piece of the coastal CCB through NYC and LI. Low is stronger and closer to coast. Not far off from the nam and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong, but last time I checked almost every model kept coastal CT in snow. Plus, even if we did flip, how would NYC possibly get an inch more than BDR/HVN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 New TAFs tell us where Upton is headed with this....they seem to think a hit on the backside as the low deepens but a mix initially.... KLGA 290830Z 2908/3006 VRB04KT P6SM FEW040 BKN100 BKN200 TEMPO 2913/2915 2SM -SN BR BKN012 FM291500 07006KT 2SM -SNRA BR BKN007 OVC015 FM291900 02012KT 1SM RASN BR BKN004 OVC012 FM292300 34014G22KT 1SM -SN BR OVC009 FM300500 32017G27KT P6SM OVC015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 toss 'em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 John, what's your gut saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 toss 'em All I see is a weenie symbol and a "blank" box.. Pic supposed to be attached? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 All I see is a weenie symbol and a "blank" box.. Pic supposed to be attached? Are you on a phone? Photo must be too large...here's the link. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_6z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 John, what's your gut saying? Same as the last two days..2-5" areawide, someone in NE NJ, Southeast NY, CT may get higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Winter weather advisory cancelled for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Advisory continues for the 5 boros on west. -- 400 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. A FEW SPOTS MAY EXCEED 6 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR CONNECTICUT AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...THE SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. * IMPACTS...MODERATE SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The 6z runs did this the night before the 11/7 event, as well. They all trended colder, and the first snow maps to actually show snow for JFK were the 6z runs the night before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 A few of us talked about this earlier, but the NAM closes off the mid level centers two or three hours earlier than it was previously. The best lift shifts to the NW side of the surface low which is slightly more tucked in off the coast. As a result the CCB develops basically overhead and you can see it here with this banding signal over NE NJ and NYC. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/rad16.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 KISP now up to 30F after hitting a low of 26F three hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 A few of us talked about this earlier, but the NAM closes off the mid level centers two or three hours earlier than it was previously. The best lift shifts to the NW side of the surface low which is slightly more tucked in off the coast. As a result the CCB develops basically overhead and you can see it here with this banding signal over NE NJ and NYC. http://www.meteo.psu...C4_6z/rad16.gif Gee what a surprise.. NENJ in for another pounding.. How many times can a deform band form over u guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Gee what a surprise.. NENJ in for another pounding.. How many times can a deform band form over u guys? Lets not count our totals before the snow falls....many models are still pretty far east and would pretty much whiff our area with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Can't wait to see the freakout when there's a bit of shadowing between the initial lift over PA/NY and the coastal...should make it look like a nice screw zone setting up over NYC and I'm sure it will take less than 30 minutes for Noreaster27 and others to come in screaming about a bust. Save this post for tomorrow morning around 9am. You can see it here on the NAM http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAFLOAT_6z/f12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 RAP still producing an outrageous 979mb bomb south of SNE NYC metro still gets their CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Lets not count our totals before the snow falls....many models are still pretty far east and would pretty much whiff our area with the CCB. No, i know... my comment only refers to how the precip is depicted on the image that u posted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Can't wait to see the freakout when there's a bit of shadowing between the initial lift over PA/NY and the coastal...should make it look like a nice screw zone setting up over NYC and I'm sure it will take less than 30 minutes for Noreaster27 and others to come in screaming about a bust. Save this post for tomorrow morning around 9am. You can see it here on the NAM http://www.meteo.psu...LOAT_6z/f12.gif The current forecast could bust tremendously. It appears to me that most of the area is going to miss the initial area of snow. I'm surprised to see the NWS forecasting any snow really before 12-1pm. I could see the far NW areas like Sussex or Orange seeing some snow from the first round but most of the area little else. Very possible if the band of snow associated with the surface low is a bit east of the RAP/NAM that places like TEB/EWR/NYC could see only 1-2 inches while LI sees 3-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Can't wait to see the freakout when there's a bit of shadowing between the initial lift over PA/NY and the coastal...should make it look like a nice screw zone setting up over NYC and I'm sure it will take less than 30 minutes for Noreaster27 and others to come in screaming about a bust. Save this post for tomorrow morning around 9am. You can see it here on the NAM http://www.meteo.psu...LOAT_6z/f12.gif hahahah yeah. Here's the next frame. We will be ripping under this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Can't wait to see the freakout when there's a bit of shadowing between the initial lift over PA/NY and the coastal...should make it look like a nice screw zone setting up over NYC and I'm sure it will take less than 30 minutes for Noreaster27 and others to come in screaming about a bust. Save this post for tomorrow morning around 9am. You can see it here on the NAMhttp://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAFLOAT_6z/f12.gif And since the coastal is stronger and develops earlier via the mid level centers closing off, the primary gets robbed, which further enhances the shadowing. Also, if the trends for the coastal to close off its mid level center sooner remain true, that would greatly help the wind component in the BL for coastal regions, and any rain would turn over to snow quicker. I'm still wary for LI, but I have my hopes. Tomorrow will be a great day to test nowcasting skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The current forecast could bust tremendously. It appears to me that most of the area is going to miss the initial area of snow. I'm surprised to see the NWS forecasting any snow really before 12-1pm. I could see the far NW areas like Sussex or Orange seeing some snow from the first round but most of the area little else. Very possible if the band of snow associated with the surface low is a bit east of the RAP/NAM that places like TEB/EWR/NYC could see only 1-2 inches while LI sees 3-5 inches. My forecast for LI is anywhere from 0-12". And I'm not totally kidding so much bust potential either way, based on the timing of the mid level centers closing off and where exactly the CCB sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 My forecast for LI is anywhere from 0-12". And I'm not totally kidding so much bust potential either way, based on the timing of the mid level centers closing off and where exactly the CCB sets up. I get a feeling the pressure falls map is going to be posted more this morning than ever before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I get a feeling the pressure falls map is going to be posted more this morning than ever before. Hahaha, so true. And it will be misinterpreted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 6z gfs have slightly sharper height field than the nam so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 GFS is nothing like the nam really. Time for bed, then nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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