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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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So do you think we stay all snow here in Flushing?

If the euro is correct, I think the entire north shore of Queens, all of the Bronx, NYC and then west and north of there is mostly snow.

A euro surface temp of 34-36 at LGA with 31-32 degree dews is not bad at all for the euro, which usually is 2-3 degrees too warm.

An area like JFK which is 39 degrees with a 34 dew point, doesn't look good right now, unfortunately.

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Big Bass Lake indeed. We really have a lot of fun up there. It becomes a circus up there for New Year's Eve. The rest of the winter it's very, very quiet.

Been there for New Years 4 years in a row. Definitely a wild time. Should be no different this year. Add the snow and you have tons of fun. 7 inches tomorrow maybe and already saying more accumulating snow on New Year's Eve itself. Only one of the last 4 New Year's Eve's featured snow in good old Big Bass lake. :snowing:

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Euro is basically a borderline event for NYC and south.

Anyone north and west is looking good on the euro.

Ocean influenced areas are fighting major boundary layer issues.

Definitely colder then the nam, gfs or rgem though, for NYC itself and wetter then most guidance.

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If the euro is correct, I think the entire north shore of Queens, all of the Bronx, NYC and then west and north of there is mostly snow.

A euro surface temp of 34-36 at LGA with 31-32 degree dews is not bad at all for the euro, which usually is 2-3 degrees too warm.

An area like JFK which is 39 degrees with a 34 dew point, doesn't look good right now, unfortunately.

Thanks. Hoping for the best.

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NAM is 6"+ for NYC. Almost on the .75 contour. Wow!

Definitely a much better run for NYC.

Soundings support snow for the last half of the storm at least.

I would say 4"-5" for NYC in this run. More in Jersey.

Even the clown maps are finally showing good accumulations, even down to the coast.

And it's not THAT far off from the 0z euro.

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would the intensity of the precip being shown by the NAM lessen the chance of a change to rain at the coast??

The other way around. The NAM is mostly a coastal storm now and brings a piece of the CCB over us.

Coastal areas that start as rain, change to snow on the NAM.

1st west and then east.

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