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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

1104 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK

AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-300200-

/O.CON.KBGM.WW.Y.0015.121229T1000Z-121230T0200Z/

SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-

LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...TOWANDA...SAYRE...

MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...

MILFORD...HONESDALE

1104 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM

EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY

NEW YORK.

* HAZARDS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WITH BRIEF BURSTS OF

HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE

AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES BY SATURDAY

EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER

THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONO PLATEAU...AND THE WESTERN

CATSKILLS.

* TIMING...STEADY SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA EARLY

SATURDAY...REACHING THE WILKES-BARRE SCRANTON METRO

AREA...HAZLETON...AND MONTROSE...BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM. SNOW SHOULD

REACH THE POCONOS AND SULLIVAN COUNTY BY AROUND 9 AM. THE

HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN ROUGHLY 10 AM AND 4 PM...WITH

SNOW DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

* WINDS...LIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND

SLIPPERY. MORE ELEVATED STRETCHES OF INTERSTATES 80...81...

84... 380...AND 476 ARE LIKELY TO HAVE DIFFICULT DRIVING

CONDITIONS.

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Personally I can't stand that guy. Actually my feelings are much stronger than that, but no reason to completely bash someone who can't defend himself.

The gradual but steady strengthening of the northern stream s/w has been telegraphed for days and several people have observed and discussed it. The obvious implications are (are were speculated upon previously) increased snow from S IL through IN, OH, and PA. The problem is, the persistent strenghening of this s/w has not led to a significant increase in QPF or slowing of forward speed with the SLP along the coastal plain. More likely, this feature will result in more snow over W and C NY. It remains to be seen how the coastal will behave, but the stuff from Steve D is pure hype.

Ok, thanks for letting me know. I wasn't sure about him, as I just found his twitter earlier today.

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I told people to take the 2-4 and run and stop hounding on any little bit that pushed the totals to 6. Karma people karma...just hope we can get something to plow at this point.

and this was never a big storm...the signals were never there for more than a 2-4 storm, now we trending the wrong way and the trend aint our friend.

People here have been spoiled grotesquely over the past several years, 2-4" used to be far more common. Now winters are big or bust really. I think 2008-2009 was the last real nickel and dime winter I can remember.

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If you view Steve D's forecast map he is and has in no way hyped this storm. On twitter he is just pointing out observations and he clearly states in his tweets that he has no need to change his current forecast but as with any storm things must be watched...

His forcast map can be found here which was updated at 3:55pm http://www.nynjpaweather.com/

Again I see zero hype with that at that time period

If you view Steve D's forecast map he is and has in no way hyped this storm. On twitter he is just pointing out observations and he clearly states in his tweets that he has no need to change his current forecast but as with any storm things must be watched...

His forcast map can be found here http://www.nynjpaweather.com/

Again I see zero hype with that

Personally I can't stand that guy. Actually my feelings are much stronger than that, but no reason to completely bash someone who can't defend himself.

The gradual but steady strengthening of the northern stream s/w has been telegraphed for days and several people have observed and discussed it. The obvious implications are (are were speculated upon previously) increased snow from S IL through IN, OH, and PA. The problem is, the persistent strenghening of this s/w has not led to a significant increase in QPF or slowing of forward speed with the SLP along the coastal plain. More likely, this feature will result in more snow over W and C NY. It remains to be seen how the coastal will behave, but the stuff from Steve D is pure hype.

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Some pretty heavy snow ongoing in S IL just north of that potent vortmax in association with strong mid-level forcing. That feature is progged to cross the area tomorrow afternoon. Although it will weaken a little, if the developing coastal does not shut off the forcing mechanisms, there could be some enhanced precipitation from roughly EPA through NNJ, SENY, and probably north of there.

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

1104 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK

AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-300200-

/O.CON.KBGM.WW.Y.0015.121229T1000Z-121230T0200Z/

SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-

LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...TOWANDA...SAYRE...

MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...

MILFORD...HONESDALE

1104 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM

EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY

NEW YORK.

* HAZARDS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WITH BRIEF BURSTS OF

HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE

AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES BY SATURDAY

EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER

THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONO PLATEAU...AND THE WESTERN

CATSKILLS.

* TIMING...STEADY SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA EARLY

SATURDAY...REACHING THE WILKES-BARRE SCRANTON METRO

AREA...HAZLETON...AND MONTROSE...BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM. SNOW SHOULD

REACH THE POCONOS AND SULLIVAN COUNTY BY AROUND 9 AM. THE

HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN ROUGHLY 10 AM AND 4 PM...WITH

SNOW DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

* WINDS...LIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND

SLIPPERY. MORE ELEVATED STRETCHES OF INTERSTATES 80...81...

84... 380...AND 476 ARE LIKELY TO HAVE DIFFICULT DRIVING

CONDITIONS.

Perfect, I'll be arriving at the in laws in the Poconos (Exit 13, Route 380) starting tomorrow right at the height of the heaviest snows.

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If you view Steve D's forecast map he is and has in no way hyped this storm. On twitter he is just pointing out observations and he clearly states in his tweets that he has no need to change his current forecast but as with any storm things must be watched...

His forcast map can be found here http://www.nynjpaweather.com/

Again I see zero hype with that

He has been doing it for many years... always making extremely "weenyish" comments about the radar and satellite and making very aggressive assertions about what it means. I consider him an amateur. But much worse because he masquerades as a professional. Judging a meteorologist's ability is not an objective thing. Everyone has their own preference. And I'm sure he makes an insightful comment once in a while.

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If you view Steve D's forecast map he is and has in no way hyped this storm. On twitter he is just pointing out observations and he clearly states in his tweets that he has no need to change his current forecast but as with any storm things must be watched...

His forcast map can be found here http://www.nynjpaweather.com/

Again I see zero hype with that

He had one of the best forecasts on Sandy a week out and was consistent all the way through. I have to give him props for that.

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He has been doing it for many years... always making extremely "weenyish" comments about the radar and satellite and making very aggressive assertions about what it means. I consider him an amateur. But much worse because he masquerades as a professional. Judging a meteorologist's ability is not an objective thing. Everyone has their own preference. And I'm sure he makes an insightful comment once in a while.

I have no doubt he has some good knowledge about meteorology in general. No way you can say he doesn't with some detailed discussion on legit features of a storm or synoptic setup....but the way in which it is applied or hyped can be totally counter productive.

I think he lost most of his credibility in the Vday 2007 storm...when he kept insisting even 12 hours before the event that I-95 would get hammered with snow.

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I understand your point but this is not considered hyping. Unless his snow map and forecast show hyping then it is not hyping. He is just making an observation and stating that it can lead to a different solution. This being said he merely states its something to be watched but no change in the forecast is needed. If its amateur to look at current observations and compare them to the models/current forecast then I'm not to sure what professional means...

His map is fine especially at the time it was created.

He has been doing it for many years... always making extremely "weenyish" comments about the radar and satellite and making very aggressive assertions about what it means. I consider him an amateur. But much worse because he masquerades as a professional. Judging a meteorologist's ability is not an objective thing. Everyone has their own preference. And I'm sure he makes an insightful comment once in a while.

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But we have all been wrong at some point : )

Anyway back to discussing the storm and less talk about what met is good or bad

I have no doubt he has some good knowledge about meteorology in general. No way you can say he doesn't with some detailed discussion on legit features of a storm or synoptic setup....but the way in which it is applied or hyped can be totally counter productive.

I think he lost most of his credibility in the Vday 2007 storm...when he kept insisting even 12 hours before the event that I-95 would get hammered with snow.

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My family has a second home in Gouldsboro in the Pocono region just off of I-380. I have endured the worst driving conditions of my life on I-380 (which says a lot given the fact that I lived in Erie, PA for 2 years and Buffalo, NY, for 5 years). Waiting later in the day for the drive would likely be in your best interest. Be safe.

Probably late morning. Drive is probably going to be awful. If it is too risky, we will wait until it ends.

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My family has a second home in Gouldsboro in the Pocono region just off of I-380. I have endured the worst driving conditions of my life on I-380 (which says a lot given the fact that I lived in Erie, PA for 2 years and Buffalo, NY, for 5 years). Waiting later in the day for the drive would likely be in your best interest. Be safe.

Lol I definitely know that waiting it out would be best.

Big Bass Lake? My In Laws have their second home there as well.

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But we have all been wrong at some point : )

Anyway back to discussing the storm and less talk about what met is good or bad

You're sure right about that. Any met who hasn't had a big bust is either lying or has only forecast for like 2 storms in their career, lol. That said, that one was indefensible with a 12h lead time...so I don't feel bad about bringing it up. But I'm not going to bash a forecast by someone any longer who can't defend himself. So I digress.

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mount holly at 922 pm

AS FAR AS MODEL VERIFICATION GOES WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS OF

00Z, THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE DONE THE BEST JOB WITH BOTH THE AREA

EXTENT AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. POOREST JOB BY THE WRF-NMMB. THE

SURFACE LOW LOOKS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL PROJECTION AND

THE GFS`S DOUBLE BARREL LOW LOOK LOOKS THE BEST.

SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. PHL FREEZING

LEVEL AT AROUND 1K OFF OF ACARS AND BWI AROUND 1200 FT, EWR NEARLY

COMPLETELY BELOW. THE PHL ACAR SOUNDING ALSO HAD DEW POINT

DEPRESSIONS OF 5-10C IN THE LOWEST 5K. WITH SOUNDINGS LIKE THAT

EVAPORATION AL COOLING SHOULD HELP MOST PLACES START AS SNOW ON

SATURDAY MORNING.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES FOR PLACES AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR AND

SOUTHEAST HOW LONG BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. THE 00Z SOUNDING

925MB TEMPS UPWIND OF US ON AVERAGE WERE 1-2C COLDER THAN WHAT THE

MODELS WERE FORECASTING AND 0-1C COLDER AT 850MB. ALL THINGS BEING

EQUAL AND WITHOUT A STRONGER SYSTEM COMPENSATING FOR IT, WOULD

THINK THE MODELS SHOULD BE COLDER WITH THE 00Z RUN OR AT LEAST

COLDER THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

AT 500MB THE GFS FCST VERIFIED THE BEST WHILE AT 250MB THE GFS

AND ECMWF WERE CLOSE, THE NAM FAILED TO BIFURCATE THE STREAKS. THE

LATEST SREF RUN HAVE TRENDED WETTER VS WHITER SOUTHEAST OF THE

FALL LINE AND THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING CLOSER TO THE LATE NOVEMBER

EVENT WHERE ELEVATION WAS THE KEY FOR SNOW. ALBEIT THE SOUNDINGS

WILL BE COLDER AND DRIER AT THE START EVERYWHERE. STILL TRYING TO

WRAP OUR HEADS ON HOW THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WARMING SO

EFFICIENTLY WITHOUT A BIG WIND PUSH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE LACK

OF A SURFACE HIGH (LIKE WE HAD NORTH OF NY STATE ON WEDNESDAY) MAY

BE THE REASON.

WE DID NOT CHANGE ANY OF THE PRESENT HEADLINES OR FORECAST

PENDING THE COMPLETE SUITE OF SOUNDING RUNS, BUT BASED ON THE

TREND WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CURRENT OUTCOME NORTHWEST OF

THE FALL LINE AND IT GETS SHAKIER IN THE I95 CORRIDOR, CONFIDENCE

GROWS AGAIN TOWARD THE COAST WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY RAIN

EVENT. CURRENT TEMPS ARE HOLDING WELL AND NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE

THERE.

WINDS WILL RELAX AND ONLY SOME CIRRUS WILL STOP US FROM RADIATING

DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE

COOLER STAT GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE PUT THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN PASS BY TO THE

NORTHEAST BY 06Z, AND THAT WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN

CLOUDS TO OCCUR. WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WON`T BE

SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN OVERNIGHT RISE IN

TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS A LITTLE SOUTH), BUT THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW

TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME

ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN I295 AND I300 WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN

AND WESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK, AND THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SNOW

EVERYWHERE IT FALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE FIRST

PERIOD SOUTH AND WEST ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH ONE-HALF INCH.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

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Big Bass Lake indeed. We really have a lot of fun up there. It becomes a circus up there for New Year's Eve. The rest of the winter it's very, very quiet.

Lol I definitely know that waiting it out would be best.

Big Bass Lake? My In Laws have their second home there as well.

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Strongly disagree...a lot of LI, especially the North Shore, is going to do very well with this storm. North Shore if SE of I-95 but could have some impressive totals.

I agree and am cautiously optimistic at the moment. Here in Port Jefferson, I think the worst would be a period of mixed precip between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM...and a good chance for an accumulation of 3 inches or possibly more. At least one to two inches of snow should fall out here after 7:00 PM, maybe more if things break right.

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Text output for NYC from 0z euro:

.40" of precip

Starts at 32 degrees at 7am.

Then 35 degrees at 1pm with .11" fallen

Then back down to 33 degrees by 7pm with .22" fallen

Then down to 31.5 degrees by 1am with .07" fallen

Not bad. Close call. Prob snow, mix, snow

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