12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II

[WintersGrasp]

Lol....this always happens before a storm...saying that precip is blossoming all over the place....wasn't forecasted to get this much by models, etc...fact is, the precip WAS modeled to be mod to even sometimes heavy where it is moderate to heavy now....it basically is just panning out how it was modeled, at least the basics of it. The problematic part is when the transfer occurs. It WILL look like a huge storm headed towards us, on radar...and if we think that will translate east if we just kinda paintbrush it over 500-1500 miles from where it is now....that is NOT the case. A lot over the ocean will become the main course here. The low pushing through now will transfer the energy off the coast, and in doing so, it IS modeled that it will have trouble getting going and will finally do so in time for parts of New England and then Nova Scotia. Radar looks great, yes....but does not mean anything for us, unfortunately. I'm not trying to be a downer....just stating some facts that I feel must be cleared up here that I see happen time and time again and some people/forecasters claim that this is going to be much better than modeled and come up with sudden forecasts like "this is gonna be more like 5 to 10 inches" if it shows a possibility of maybe getting 3 to 5. Wish casting is nice as long as you keep it to dreams and have a day in bed the next day I'm still thinking the 3-4" amounts that I said days ago....haven't changed...for NYC, NNJ and much of Long Island

[TWCCraig]

Some people are already calling this off. I think we still have a good chance to see decent snowfall across the area. Why should we put all our trust in the american models which have been warm in the BL's with the past couple of storms?

[SnoSki14]

A lot of weenies need to calm down and let the storm just happen. If it rains then that's how things go, way too much whining going on.

[WintersGrasp]

Some people are already calling this off. I think we still have a good chance to see decent snowfall across the area. Why should we put all our trust in the american models which have been warm in the BL's with the past couple of storms?

Models showed a coating, then 1-3, then 2-4, then 4-6, then 2-4, now 1-3....but the important part is to remember that the amounts that we WILL get never really changed because they never happened yet. The models are giving computerized forecasts that will change time and time again. Remember that there have been storms that models have been just a bit off in regards to how they handled a storm and it was the difference between all snow and all rain. The storm is happening how it will happen regardless of how the models will handle it or if there were no models at all

[FreeRain]

The upper system appears to have been badly underestimated by the models most of the past 24 hours....I posted this morning how the jet dynamics and ridging in the OH Valley were causing alot of aircraft turbulence the models were missing because the heights were kicking up with expanding trops ahead of the vort which was over Oklahoma at the time. It also dropped a surprise 1-2 inches of snow over OK this morning. Its possible tonight's milder solutions may be the models realizing how strong that system is and holding it on longer, the thing is primary lows, especially weak ones usually die faster than the models expect them to, just ask people in the OH Valley during our big storms here how often that happens...if thats the case this time the coastal is probably developing earlier than most guidance shows.

So then if the primary is stronger why would it tend to redevelop earlier?? Seems like it should be later.

(corrected for typo)

[Storm At Sea]

You would think that the forecast just went from 6-12 inches to rain in a matter of one model run. Just 36 hours ago, the forecast was for 1-3 in. most areas. I will say this: SREF's look terrible from Middlesex County, NJ south and east.

A lot of weenies need to calm down and let the storm just happen. If it rains then that's how things go, way too much whining going on.

[Rtd208]

This.

A lot of weenies need to calm down and let the storm just happen. If it rains then that's how things go, way too much whining going on.

[allgame830]

So then if the primary is stronger why would it tend to develop earlier?? Seems like it should be later.

No it would transfer to the coast sooner if the primary is stronger.

[SnoSki14]

You would think that the forecast just went from 6-12 inches to rain in a matter of one model run. Just 36 hours ago, the forecast was for 1-3 in. most areas. I will say this: SREF's look terrible from Middlesex County, NJ south and east.

Well people want their few inches of snow. You've always been against this storm regardless though so I'm not surprised to hear the pessimism.

[Rtd208]

Regardless of what the models are showing, the only thing we can really do is nowcast and see how this thing plays out tomorrow.

[threeyoda]

25/21 here. There's some virga stretching across SE PA from Pittsburgh down to Harrisburg and even a little across South Jersey from Vineland to Atlantic City.

[jm1220]

It won't happen...meteorology over modelology!

Exactly.....the last system cut well to the west, and I didn't go above freezing until the last couple of hours, and then it was to 36F. This is a colder airmass, a better storm track, and a weaker system. Not seeing the warmth.

Inland Westchester is way different and harder to torch than coastal Long Island or NYC. You'll be good with snow tomorrow almost regardless.

[SnoSki14]

27/22 in east brunswick and at the forecast low.

[WintersGrasp]

Keep in mind that we've had storms in MID APRIL that were forecasted to be snow to rain with temps in the upper 30s that stayed ALL snow because the precip was steady and not even heavy but moderate for the duration....and we've hovered around 32-33 or so with the snow accumulating on all surfaces

[Allsnow]

I did not say anything that bad. Verbatim hr 21 is rain 78-south. And anything before that is slop. 95-se it looks like a coating to inch type event now. Pretty brutal being that 3-5 was being forecast at 12z

[killabud]

0z gfs p-type map show more snow than the 12z and 18z gfs on wunderground

pretty much all of nassau is snow the whole time this run.....

[CTWeatherFan]

0z gfs p-type map show more snow than the 12z and 18z gfs on wunderground

pretty much all of nassau is snow the whole time this run.....

That'd be great. I'm gonna be in Oyster Bay tomorrow.

[famartin]

27.5F back home in Ewing. And since someone asked, officially Ewing is part of NYC metro (though I've always thought that was stupid, its obviously Philly metro).

[WintersGrasp]

I did not say anything that bad. Verbatim hr 21 is rain 78-south. And anything before that is slop. 95-se it looks like a coating to inch type event now. Pretty brutal being that 3-5 was being forecast at 12z

I'm sitting at 27 degrees in NE NJ with clear skies to drop a degree or two more....clouds approaching so we should hover in the mid to upper 20s until morning when temps won't rise much due to the approaching precip. Where are you located ? This will be a widespread 3-4" storm with some amounts to 6"

[TWCCraig]

0z gfs p-type map show more snow than the 12z and 18z gfs on wunderground

pretty much all of nassau is snow the whole time this run.....

Those maps are extremely low resolution. Use instant weather maps.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122900&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=021

[killabud]

Those maps are extremely low resolution. Use instant weather maps.

http://www.instantwe...=PTYPE&hour=021

ya i figured they probably wouldn't be all that accurate,but just surprised that they'd show more now than the colder runs

[nzucker]

27.2/24

[ace0927]

Those maps are extremely low resolution. Use instant weather maps.

http://www.instantwe...=PTYPE&hour=021

how about just look at the skew-t's or soundings for accurate model output?

[Rtd208]

Temp. 29/DP 25.

[winterwarlock]

I told people to take the 2-4 and run and stop hounding on any little bit that pushed the totals to 6. Karma people karma...just hope we can get something to plow at this point.

and this was never a big storm...the signals were never there for more than a 2-4 storm, now we trending the wrong way and the trend aint our friend.

[Heisy]

I told people to take the 2-4 and run and stop hounding on any little bit that pushed the totals to 6. Karma people karma...just hope we can get something to plow at this point.

and this was never a big storm...the signals were never there for more than a 2-4 storm, now we trending the wrong way and the trend aint our friend.

This is a weather board, we root on the extreme, that's the whole point. But anyway, good luck to you guys up there.

[CTWeatherFan]

22/18F Southbury, CT.

[ChineseFood4Snow]

26/18

[mulen]

Were gonna get our fix but this is an appetizer for Jan. look at caa just waiting for the barndoor to open which system is the mechanism.I'm not familiar with this science you'd figure after how many years as a space cadet 12-15yrs don't trust the models till your looking out the window.Especially winter storms all bets are off i guess its the chase getting it right makes the effort worth it because we have dedicated members me excluded .

[eduggs]

If anyone has a twitter and doesn't follow Steve D, he's been live updating since about 8pm, and has been very informative on the models coming out plus updates on the current radar and snow reports:

"It should be noted the 00Z NAM already busted with snow rates in IN."

"over 5 inches in Indy already"

"So basically what we are observing tonight is CLEARLY a stronger storm than modeled thus far."

"Moderate to heavy snow now developing throughout Ohio River Valley this evening, very much not forecasted."

"Does this translate east? I think so and I think so far the RUC is trying to catch on to that aspect."

'"Steve...is that precip building off North Carolina coast already?" Yes, it is.'

Personally I can't stand that guy. Actually my feelings are much stronger than that, but no reason to completely bash someone who can't defend himself.

The gradual but steady strengthening of the northern stream s/w has been telegraphed for days and several people have observed and discussed it. The obvious implications are (are were speculated upon previously) increased snow from S IL through IN, OH, and PA. The problem is, the persistent strenghening of this s/w has not led to a significant increase in QPF or slowing of forward speed with the SLP along the coastal plain. More likely, this feature will result in more snow over W and C NY. It remains to be seen how the coastal will behave, but the stuff from Steve D is pure hype.