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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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Just want to add, following the models closely for this event, the ukmet was the steadiest and mainly had .25" of precip for the last 6-7 runs. This model is so good sometimes and so terrible at other times.

The UKMET had a few runs that had the heavy precip from the low encompassing the whole metro area and having 0.5" or so total (more east). I could tell fairly early on that we were screwed except for eastern areas, and even then only CT was cold enough to add much snow. Hopefully we get in on some better storms later on this winter but the longitude storm type is literally the most frustrating, where you bite your nails until you see the comma head form 30 miles east of you and then watch New England get slammed. This was pretty much a mini 3/5/2001.

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Fwiw, I walked in CPK, including around the Great Lawn, both during the initial snow pulse and in the early evening (though then, closer to 90th street), and the report of a trace is simply incorrect. Heck, I live 2 blocks from the park, and I have more than a T,on the ground right now, in the yard behind my window.

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Beautiful!

All I got was this, on my phone. I have a some better shots on my digital camera, but I'm still a n00b with photography.

Not bad for a phone! I just think it's cool that people are getting out there and appreciating individual flakes. Congrats :thumbsup:

4" on the nose here. Couple tenths too low for biggest snow of the season, but nice event.

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You ended up int he sucker hole for the niller B redevelopment that was modeled to be over western SNE.

Many of us were screaming about the potential for "shadowing" between the initial development and the secondary. It was clear even from the get go that this wasn't a "huge" event here.

When we had the "big" Euro run several nights ago and even that kinda fringed us, I knew we weren't talking about a bomb here. By the way, this was almost similar to Dec 2010 for you guys as far as tracking/modeling goes. Looked like crap until under 84 hr and then came down to the last minute inside 36. And it was the Euro that sniffed out the big bomb but then lost it. Watching that radar last night was awesome.

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a trace for Central is a joke...I got three measurable events since Christmas eve while they got one...There's no one minding the store...

Definitely not a joke, there was barely any snow in Manhattan. Even up in Harlem we only had an inch or so. There was almost no snow at all in the Village & I assume Central Park was the same.

The Park is typically quite accurate in measurements... just because it doesn't match the suburban stations doesn't mean it's wrong...

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Definitely not a joke, there was barely any snow in Manhattan. Even up in Harlem we only had an inch or so. There was almost no snow at all in the Village & I assume Central Park was the same.

What do you mean by "almost no"? If there was even a small coating, a "trace" is not correct.

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Many of us were screaming about the potential for "shadowing" between the initial development and the secondary. It was clear even from the get go that this wasn't a "huge" event here.

When we had the "big" Euro run several nights ago and even that kinda fringed us, I knew we weren't talking about a bomb here. By the way, this was almost similar to Dec 2010 for you guys as far as tracking/modeling goes. Looked like crap until under 84 hr and then came down to the last minute inside 36. And it was the Euro that sniffed out the big bomb but then lost it. Watching that radar last night was awesome.

We knew it wasn't going to be a huge event, but the result was definitely on the low end of expectations....I had 3.25" here when the forecast from NWS and local TV was 3-5". Most of the City was expected to get 2-4" and only came in with a coating to an inch. Even with the shadowing, the modeled QPF was not realized as no one got more than .25" whereas many runs had shown between .3" and .5" QPF. Getting only .18" here was not exactly expected. Although my forecast verified, I definitely thought with the ECM and NAM trending a little wetter that we'd be closer to 5" than 3" for total snowfall...

If the primary had been a bit south and yielded to a secondary just slightly earlier, we all would have seen the 6-10" that CT got. It's sort of fair in the end though because the shoreline of CT has been screwed in countless events, and Boston has not done nearly as well as NYC in the past 10 years relative to climo, especially in winters like 03-04 and 09-10 when NYC got hammered while Boston saw pedestrian totals.

Still waiting for the big bomb this season...I can't help but think it's coming given the ridiculous stratospheric warming we're seeing and the signals for a cold pattern late Jan/early Feb which is the time when we usually get our big snowstorms down here.

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Definitely not a joke, there was barely any snow in Manhattan. Even up in Harlem we only had an inch or so. There was almost no snow at all in the Village & I assume Central Park was the same.

The Park is typically quite accurate in measurements... just because it doesn't match the suburban stations doesn't mean it's wrong...

I was by Columbus Circle around 8 last night and there was definitely a light coating on the grassy areas where the fountains are.

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I am no weenie (a former scientist who quit a climatology phd program, I have a masters, etc.). I rarely post.

But I walked again in the park today, and there is more than a trace of accumulation on the ground tonight. The CPK report is an error, and if the integrity of the data matters (does it?) them someone should fix the problem going forward. This won't be the only marginal temp snow event in NYC this winter.

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