Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Gfs has less qpf and looks warm...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 So guys, ready to track this rain storm tomorrow? I hope not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Gfs has less qpf and looks warm...ugh Looks like 2-4" for the NYC Metro... that's where I live, that's what I care about (Tommy Boy reference)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks like 2-4" for the NYC Metro... that's where I live, that's what I care about (Tommy Boy reference)... 925 looks above 0 at hr 21... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks like 2-4" for the NYC Metro... that's where I live, that's what I care about (Tommy Boy reference)... Hope we can pull out the 2-4 here as well. The changes in the last day have been pretty large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z sat nyc is slightly over 32 by 18z just over 37,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 925 looks above 0 at hr 21... It has less precip everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Hah amazing...a low a bit outside of benchmark track trending more towards what seems to be a better solution....and suddenly rain enters the picture lol. south and east equals a couple inches of snow....north and west trend equals good positioning of low, yet rain and still just a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Ok, maybe this thing does start out as rain for us tomorrow, then transition to snow. But it wouldn't make sense to start out as rain given the current temps, many areas have already dropped below their forecast low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z sat nyc is slightly over 32 by 18z just over 37,, Ughhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 We're probably going to be nail-biting until game time with this one. The Jan 2005 clipper was progged to be an interior NJ jackpot until the nowcasting period, when it was obvious the coastal was deepening quickly, with intense banding from CNJ to LI. I'm not willing to guarantee anything w/ this event until it starts precipitating tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 SV maps has no snow accumulating for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 knyc SAT 12Z 29-DEC 0.2 -2.3 1014 83 95 0.00 552 541 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 2.8 -3.9 1006 93 100 0.08 543 539 SUN 00Z 30-DEC 0.2 -3.6 1001 96 80 0.17 534 534 SUN 06Z 30-DEC -1.1 -5.9 1002 89 90 0.02 531 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 These latest trends have weenies on the ledges for sure. I am kinda disappointed myself, and I was definitely not looking for a bomb of a storm. 2"-4" would have been fine...but rain...yech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Tomorrow should be an interesting day. I wouldn't be shocked to see an all snow event despite what the models are showing tonight. This is a delicate situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Precips basically over by then Back down to just above freeing at 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Hr 21 is rain for ewr south and east...pretty brutal GFS has 2" or so of snow into NYC. Much better then what the nam and Rgem have. So lets hope it's correct this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z sat nyc is slightly over 32 by 18z just over 37,, 850s are -4C for NYC at 18 hours and -3C at 24 hours with precipitation falling both frames...looks fine to me. 0z GFS looks like a nice hit with close to .4" QPF in NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Tomorrow should be an interesting day. I wouldn't be shocked to see an all snow event despite what the models are showing tonight. This is a delicate situation. More or less shocked than it bring an all rain event if the models were showing snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 SV maps has no snow accumulating for anyone Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 850s are -4C for NYC at 18 hours and -3C at 24 hours with precipitation falling both frames...looks fine to me. 0z GFS looks like a nice hit with close to .4" QPF in NYC metro. The problem isnt at 850hPa, it is below that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 850s are -4C for NYC at 18 hours and -3C at 24 hours with precipitation falling both frames...looks fine to me. 0z GFS looks like a nice hit with close to .4" QPF in NYC metro. It also has -2 to -3 c for monmouth county with surface in the low 40's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 More or less shocked than it bring an all rain event if the models were showing snow? I don't get what happened.The models were showing snow with highs near 30 and now they are showing highs near 40. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The problem isnt at 850hPa, it is below that... Yep. 925 is the problem area roughly. Warm nose pushing. And with weaker precip rates, you have to question whether or not it's enough to stave off the warm push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Poor trends tonight, looks like another mostly interior-favored event. We coastal bums have to hope the precip starts earlier so that we don't warm up much after the morning lows, and that dynamics can somehow overcome a torched boundary layer. If those don't pan out, I would expect very little, other than maybe some slush at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Time to nowcast, we'll see what happens tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 850s are -4C for NYC at 18 hours and -3C at 24 hours with precipitation falling both frames...looks fine to me. 0z GFS looks like a nice hit with close to .4" QPF in NYC metro. The soundings for LGA are all boundary layer warmth, it tries to do that funny 925mb nose at 21Z but at that point the coastal is already well underway as fat as development. The GFS is having all sorts of problems with the boundary layer, by the wya the NAM MOS for LGA shows 35/26 at 06Z tonight, its already was 33/23. at 03Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 850s are -4C for NYC at 18 hours and -3C at 24 hours with precipitation falling both frames...looks fine to me. 0z GFS looks like a nice hit with close to .4" QPF in NYC metro. The surface low needs to intensify faster, plain and simple. Take a look at the 950-sfc level. For early afternoon in NYC, this is well above freezing if it's correct. Not going to stick with temps in the 35-37 degree range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Probably going to be one of those deals where we get a few inches as the coastal takes over and pulls away. May be some junk to contend with on the front end. I still like 2-4" over the city (4 NW, 2 SE) ... we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The problem isnt at 850hPa, it is below that... Models are notorious for overdoing boundary layer warmth and not accounting for dynamic/evaporational cooling. I always look at the track of a storm to determine whether we're going to be snow, and as a secondary factor I look at temps and dewpoints. A low tracking from the VA Capes to just off the Benchmark in late December with dews in the 20s across the area equals snow to me. Also, why are people looking at NAM/GFS temperatures? 12z ECM had a cold temperature profile that supported accumulating snowfall across the area. The ECM nailed the last storm with 2.5" snowfall here then significant sleet/freezing rain before the change to rain while the NAM/GFS had mostly rain in Westchester until the last minute. The ECM is the steady hand in this storm, showing 2-4" snowfall with cold temperatures. Why people would doubt the King is beyond me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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