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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

412 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER BANDS OF FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP NOW LIFTING INTO CT AND LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ELEVATED MID LEVEL CAPE...SO SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP LIKELY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS...MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. PER RADAR TREND HAVE BUMPED ACCUMS UP IN THESE AREAS...WITH 6-10 INCHES EXPECTED IN SE CT...AND 4-8 INCHES IN NEW HAVEN COUNTY CT WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. OKX 88-D DUAL POLARIZATION RADAR DATA ALSO SHOW MELTING LEVEL QUICKLY COLLAPSING TOWARD GROUND LEVEL OVER LONG ISLAND AND ALSO NYC METRO...AND LOCAL BROADCAST MET REPORTS SNOW ALREADY MIXING IN NORTH OF KISP...SO HAVE REISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY FOR LONG ISLAND. ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM NEAR THE SFC UP TO 850 MB MAY HOLD SNOWFALL RATIOS DOWN A LITTLE THERE INITIALLY DUE TO WATER LOADING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ISLAND...AND LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. FARTHER NORTH/WEST...A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT TO OCNL MODERATE SNOW HAVE YET TO PASS THROUGH BEFORE PRECIP WINDS DOWN THIS EVENING... BRINGING ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ON TOP OF THE 1-2 AND LOCALLY 3 INCHES THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN...SO ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST DURING THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS CT/LONG ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING WINDS BACKING FROM NE-N TO NW OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW...SO WARNINGS/ADVYS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT EVEN AFTER EXPECTED END TIMES OF SNOW.

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Enhancement of banding in eastern NJ/NYC/western LI as per latest radar trends, seems like convective returns are popping in a cellular fashion in this zone to consolidate soon. Either that or my eyes are teasing me for watching too many radar screens the past eight hours.

There does seem to be some enhancement of the bands near Middlesex county on the Mt. Holly radar, not sure how much will make it further east though. Snow is still struggling to pick up in intensity in Bergen county, although it's snowing here for the first time in over an hour, roads are covered again.

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Good to see LI switching... :santa:

I was down to 31.5 with sleet and occasionally moderate snow... went over to light freezing rain... and now... not sure what happened but within the last 20 minutes, I've jumped back up above freezing and am back to plain rain...

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There does seem to be some enhancement of the bands near Middlesex county on the Mt. Holly radar, not sure how much will make it further east though. Snow is still struggling to pick up in intensity in Bergen county, although it's snowing here for the first time in over an hour, roads are covered again.

There seems to be a bit of a dry slow between the banding over Western/Central NJ and the heavier stuff moving towards LI. Luckily I've been on the eastern side of those bands and although the intensity is much lighter than before, it hasn't stopped.

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SN

31.3/30

2.5" accumulation

Winds: NE

We may have spoken too soon about the storm being a disappointment. More bands of moderate snow forming over NJ, and accumulations have picked up here in Westchester again. Temperature is down to 31F and snow is sticking to all surfaces, including plowed/salted roads. Looks like a band should consolidate over central NJ and then slowly lift northeast.

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