kevbo81 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 412 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012 RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER BANDS OF FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP NOW LIFTING INTO CT AND LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ELEVATED MID LEVEL CAPE...SO SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP LIKELY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS...MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. PER RADAR TREND HAVE BUMPED ACCUMS UP IN THESE AREAS...WITH 6-10 INCHES EXPECTED IN SE CT...AND 4-8 INCHES IN NEW HAVEN COUNTY CT WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. OKX 88-D DUAL POLARIZATION RADAR DATA ALSO SHOW MELTING LEVEL QUICKLY COLLAPSING TOWARD GROUND LEVEL OVER LONG ISLAND AND ALSO NYC METRO...AND LOCAL BROADCAST MET REPORTS SNOW ALREADY MIXING IN NORTH OF KISP...SO HAVE REISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY FOR LONG ISLAND. ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM NEAR THE SFC UP TO 850 MB MAY HOLD SNOWFALL RATIOS DOWN A LITTLE THERE INITIALLY DUE TO WATER LOADING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ISLAND...AND LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. FARTHER NORTH/WEST...A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT TO OCNL MODERATE SNOW HAVE YET TO PASS THROUGH BEFORE PRECIP WINDS DOWN THIS EVENING... BRINGING ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ON TOP OF THE 1-2 AND LOCALLY 3 INCHES THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN...SO ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST DURING THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS CT/LONG ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING WINDS BACKING FROM NE-N TO NW OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW...SO WARNINGS/ADVYS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT EVEN AFTER EXPECTED END TIMES OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not yet here in Oyster Bay (just north of 25A) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Starting to mix alittle here after a few hours of dreaded drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm under some of that banding in NJ. Have close to 4" so far. Snowing lightly. Treated roads are mainly wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yellowish shade is the rain line. On a loop, it's collapsing south very fast. I'm glad to see I interpreted this correctly. It's still raining here though, but I should be changing over snow shortly if the radar is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wow, Upton may just have restored my hopes. I thought we may only get a dusting, but from there discussion, I understand why they put the WWA back in place. And the radar is showing more precip forming right off the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm glad to see I interpreted this correctly. It's still raining here though, but I should be changing over snow shortly if the radar is correct. Look at the kdix image for our area. It shows the warm layer north into NYC. But also collapsing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm under some of that banding in NJ. Have close to 4" so far. Snowing lightly. Treated roads are mainly wet. I might be under the band. I'd have to look at the radar but we're under heavy snow as well. Lowest visibility of the day, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Edit: Starting to see flakes (Oyster Bay) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 still sleet here Still rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Some snowflakes starting to mix in with the rain now here in marlboro, nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mweisenfeld Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Just drizzle here. 32f. Disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The euro had .34" falling from 1pm to midnight at LGA. Only .12" has fallen so far in this time frame. So the euro does have and additional .22" falling. Would like to see where it comes from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Rain/snow line should be south of Lie soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Euro also had .62" falling for ISP from 1pm to 6am. Just to give you an idea about LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Enhancement of banding in eastern NJ/NYC/western LI as per latest radar trends, seems like convective returns are popping in a cellular fashion in this zone to consolidate soon. Either that or my eyes are teasing me for watching too many radar screens the past eight hours. There does seem to be some enhancement of the bands near Middlesex county on the Mt. Holly radar, not sure how much will make it further east though. Snow is still struggling to pick up in intensity in Bergen county, although it's snowing here for the first time in over an hour, roads are covered again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not yet here in Oyster Bay (just north of 25A) I'm just south of you and snow is just now starting to mix in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks like it's gonna start to change over here just when the precip is gonna end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Just about all snow here, but its still very wet. Temp is 35 (down 2 in the past hour). I just made my last trip to the rain gage for the day As of 4:40pm 0.25" has collected. That would have made a nice little covering if snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The temps still suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Huge flakes are falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 18z rgem is very nice for LI and even into NYC and LGA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Good to see LI switching... I was down to 31.5 with sleet and occasionally moderate snow... went over to light freezing rain... and now... not sure what happened but within the last 20 minutes, I've jumped back up above freezing and am back to plain rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 There does seem to be some enhancement of the bands near Middlesex county on the Mt. Holly radar, not sure how much will make it further east though. Snow is still struggling to pick up in intensity in Bergen county, although it's snowing here for the first time in over an hour, roads are covered again. There seems to be a bit of a dry slow between the banding over Western/Central NJ and the heavier stuff moving towards LI. Luckily I've been on the eastern side of those bands and although the intensity is much lighter than before, it hasn't stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Finally starting to mix with snow again, temp just above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Snow is definitely beginning to mix in.. Dix Hills, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 SN 31.3/30 2.5" accumulation Winds: NE We may have spoken too soon about the storm being a disappointment. More bands of moderate snow forming over NJ, and accumulations have picked up here in Westchester again. Temperature is down to 31F and snow is sticking to all surfaces, including plowed/salted roads. Looks like a band should consolidate over central NJ and then slowly lift northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Sleet/rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 There must be some really large wet snowflakes under those 58 DBZ returns over Northern Suffolk now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Still all rain 37.1 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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