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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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I think you guys may be looking in the wrong direction for the changeover... Usually it does happen from NW to SE however this time, it may be coming in from the NE or N. Points to my NE and E - along the immediate coast - have had accumulating snow for the past hour or so while I've been rain. Only in the last 15 minutes - when my temp finally went to 32.4 (and my dew went up to 30) did I finally make the switch from all rain to all sleet. Ground has quickly whitened up and there is even a few snowflakes mixing in now.

Truthfully, I've never seen a rain/snow line be shunted NW while being pushed in from the E and NE like this one. Rain in Wilton CT with snow on the island of Jamestown in RI? With a coastal low to the E??? One for the record books.

Anyway, something to keep in mind... especially if there's anyone on the North Fork reading...

..very intriguing 'RI'...i would be in that game too!

that would be a very unusual if that came true..i'll keep

an eye on that..temp down to 36.8* w/ rain.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

337 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

...WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...

NYZ078>081-177-179-300500-

/O.EXA.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121230T1100Z/

NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

337 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6

AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...DROPPING TO ONE HALF MILE THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL

CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TAPER OFF LATE.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

337 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

...WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...

NYZ078>081-177-179-300500-

/O.EXA.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121230T1100Z/

NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

337 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6

AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...DROPPING TO ONE HALF MILE THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL

CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TAPER OFF LATE.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND

SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...SUNDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON

HOURS.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD DOWN TREES AND TREE

LIMBS...POWER LINES AND HOLIDAY DECORATIONS...AND CAUSE MINOR

PROPERTY DAMAGE. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. DRIVING

WILL BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...

OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS

STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE

VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

337 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

...WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...

NYZ078>081-177-179-300500-

/O.EXA.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121230T1100Z/

NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

337 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6

AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...DROPPING TO ONE HALF MILE THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL

CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TAPER OFF LATE.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

you have got to be kidding me...its like 40 degrees

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I can see Upton's reasoning for a WAA for Suffolk, but not Nassau, and especially not southern Nassau.

As the mid level centers get closed and organized, temperature will drop, sure, but the precip is going to consolidate towards the coastal. I'd be pretty surprised if any banding hit Nassau. I hope Upton is right, but I just don't see it.

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