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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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Well it looks like the concerns we discussed last night regarding the 00z mesoscale data have come to fruition. The NAM/RGEM pulled out a coup with respect to the rainy solution for I-95 southeast. The coastal low is taking control too late in the game to save us.

On the bright side, we're not wasting much precip. Only 0.14" here which is much less than progged by most data.

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Well it looks like the concerns we discussed last night regarding the 00z mesoscale data have come to fruition. The NAM/RGEM pulled out a coup with respect to the rainy solution for I-95 southeast. The coastal low is taking control too late in the game to save us.

On the bright side, we're not wasting much precip. Only 0.14" here which is much less than progged by most data.

To be fair the NAM and RGEM also flipped right back at 06z...both of them gave me 6" of what we now know is imaginary snow. :lol:

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Well it looks like the concerns we discussed last night regarding the 00z mesoscale data have come to fruition. The NAM/RGEM pulled out a coup with respect to the rainy solution for I-95 southeast. The coastal low is taking control too late in the game to save us.

On the bright side, we're not wasting much precip. Only 0.14" here which is much less than progged by most data.

The precip from the coastal is beginning to wrap into Westchester so we're not done quite yet up here.

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The "shadow" I was worried about is happening right now as precip is consolidating east of most of the area. Much of the area might not even make it to 0.25" liquid out of this. You have to be out well into Suffolk or eastern CT to really have a chance at more. This is eastern New England's storm, not ours. Much like a 12/9/05 deal with less in front of this storm.

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To be fair the NAM and RGEM also flipped right back at 06z...both of them gave me 6" of what we now know is imaginary snow. :lol:

There's a few decent bands to your west...I could see a convergence zone on radar developing over you in which bands from the SE inflow/coastal interact with the old primary snows to the west and you get decent rates.

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agreed. at least when it changed, the precip pretty much became super light

Yeah, I was thinking that too. With the rain very light and temps still near freezing, at least not much of the snow will be washed away. Even with only 1-2", we should see a little snow on the ground for a few days due to the cold weather.

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I think you guys may be looking in the wrong direction for the changeover... Usually it does happen from NW to SE however this time, it may be coming in from the NE or N. Points to my NE and E - along the immediate coast - have had accumulating snow for the past hour or so while I've been rain. Only in the last 15 minutes - when my temp finally went to 32.4 (and my dew went up to 30) did I finally make the switch from all rain to all sleet. Ground has quickly whitened up and there is even a few snowflakes mixing in now.

Truthfully, I've never seen a rain/snow line be shunted NW while being pushed in from the E and NE like this one. Rain in Wilton CT with snow on the island of Jamestown in RI? With a coastal low to the E??? One for the record books.

Anyway, something to keep in mind... especially if there's anyone on the North Fork reading...

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I said last nite that ive never seen a scenerio on the north shore w minus 3 air. Air temps low 30s. NE winds storm bombing from hatteras to cape cod. And just rain. Now i can say i hav

Made the same mistake yesterday thinking we could salvage snow with a storm going that far southeast of us. The initial primary low screwed us, particularly below 850mb as those lower levels scorched us. The coastal low was too slow to develop and too far east, and here we are. Hard to expect much different in a fast progressive pattern that has almost no real cold air. Congrats Boston.

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