KEITH L.I Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The Rain The Park and Other Things 36 in West Babylon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Still rain here in the Woodbridge area...suckage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 925mb low still in Central PA but the secondary center has formed off the coast of OC MD. Strengthening rapidly so we should see things begin to cool down soon if we can get some moderate precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Where is the rain/snow line right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm just about calling it for west of the Sagtikos- precip looks like it's consolidating too far east for anyone west of there. Too strong initial low, putrid, stale airmass initially in place, and poor dynamics. Not even expecting a coating here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Did you guys see this??? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LONG ISLAND THRU MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 291922Z - 292315Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY 23-00Z...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 02-03Z...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. DISCUSSION...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR SINCE MID MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND BEYOND...AS IT MIGRATES INTO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00-03Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. EVEN ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S...AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME Still light rain here along the coast of RI... 32.5/29 - I think I see freezing rain before I see snow! Not until you posted.Thanks...one more trinket in the hope chest for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yup we were told. We just didn't want to listen. I'm still hanging on for pulling a rabbit out of the hat later on the north shore. Some people (i.e., me) never learn In 18 years out here, we have a strong tendency to start badly and end very well...like that 12/19/95 event...when I had a coating and LGA 7 inches midway through...and we ended up with more than NYC when all was said and done. I'm still going to give this one a bit more time as Lee Van Cleef did for Kurt Russell in Escape From NY.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 can someone provide a link to the dual pol radar being used? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Where is the rain/snow line right now? About like so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Heavy snow just in the past 10 minutes here in Rockland after a slowdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm just about calling it for west of the Sagtikos- precip looks like it's consolidating too far east for anyone west of there. Too strong initial low, putrid, stale airmass initially in place, and poor dynamics. Not even expecting a coating here anymore. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of some banding pushing back towards western LI later. There is a bombing low well to our south. Shame its gonna be a quick mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 925mb low still in Central PA but the secondary center has formed off the coast of OC MD. Strengthening rapidly so we should see things begin to cool down soon if we can get some moderate precipitation. I have no doubt the energy transfer will occur and the 925 low will close off to our east, but the problem is can we hold the precip shield for another several hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 About like so Only seems to be going more N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 About like so I can confirm that...just changed to a very light rain/sleet mix here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Barely even snowing here now, since the front end band it's been just light snow. Precip shield doesn't look too impressive over NJ on the Mt. Holly radar. Unless sustained heavier precip forms over NJ I doubt I'll get more than an additional 1-2" out of this at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Barely even snowing here now, since the front end band it's been just light snow. Precip shield doesn't look too impressive over NJ on the Mt. Holly radar. Unless sustained heavier precip forms over NJ I doubt I'll get more than an additional 1-2" out of this at most. The upper pattern is too progressive for the precip shield to be further west. It's too bad the the 500 mb low is going to close off near the Canadian maritimes instead of right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 I have no doubt the energy transfer will occur and the 925 low will close off to our east, but the problem is can we hold the precip shield for another several hours? Doubtful. Things are moving fast and you can see the shadowing that I was worried about yesterday occurring now as the best lift rapidly transitions to northwest of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Where is the heavier precipitation? Radar looks like a mess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Doubtful. Things are moving fast and you can see the shadowing that I was worried about yesterday occurring now as the best lift rapidly transitions to northwest of the surface low. Is banding from the coastal going to begin to fill in from the southeast, or are we basically looking at a 2" event here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Nice meso discussion will hold out for that inch an hr for three hours. Hope it can get as far west as the nassau suffolk border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Where is the heavier precipitation? Radar looks like a mess right now. East with the bombing out low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Doubtful. Things are moving fast and you can see the shadowing that I was worried about yesterday occurring now as the best lift rapidly transitions to northwest of the surface low. The snow did lighten up here for a bit as apparently the low was just starting to develop and transition from the PA low to the offshore low, but now the snow is pouring here again, I think it is probably the back edge of the developing coastal low now and it will likely still need to move through areas to the east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 East with the bombing out low. It's going to be a close call as to whether it can wrap in from the east/southeast to the NYC Metro area. I've tapered to light snow after a couple inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Is banding from the coastal going to begin to fill in from the southeast, or are we basically looking at a 2" event here? It could fill in a bit but the surface low and dynamics are very compact. The models have been pretty steady with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 snow light to moderate for about 3 1/2 hours. 2.5 on the ground. I think we may get another inch? Points west will end fairly rapidly from here I think - just like the models have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 awesome call on by steve D for south shores...LOL and anyone else who forecasted this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 3pm update 37/36 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Precip looks to end in about 4 hours for NYC southwest. Pretty much game over for anything more than T-1" totals NYC/coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Barely even snowing here now, since the front end band it's been just light snow. Precip shield doesn't look too impressive over NJ on the Mt. Holly radar. Unless sustained heavier precip forms over NJ I doubt I'll get more than an additional 1-2" out of this at most. Pretty much the same story here 15 minutes to your due south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 snow light to moderate for about 3 1/2 hours. 2.5 on the ground. I think we may get another inch? Points west will end fairly rapidly from here I think - just like the models have shown. The deformation band is setting up now just to your west over Northern Warren County. The snow was light for about an hour but is now the heaviest it has been all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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