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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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36 with rain here but I am starting to get a little more optimistic. The banded precip organizing off the south Jersey coast with the bombing low is looking pretty good. I think we get more than just a glancing blow from that later, and probably colder. I think we should start to see the NE wind picking up fairly soon.

FWIW, as of 2:20PM we have 0.10" liquid in the bucket. I'd rather it was accumulated snow on the ground, but it really isn't much so far.

Anyway Ed...its always exciting to watch the rain transition to snow...assuming it does...lol

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Nobody should be surprised by this especially on the Island..soundings were horrible yesterday..they all said rain..GFS and NAM snowfall maps were hideous for the coast..if the models are saying this within 24 hours that's a warning sign..also if we had real cold air to start with the 920 line would have no effect..the airmass was stale..just a few observations

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Nobody should be surprised by this especially on the Island..soundings were horrible yesterday..they all said rain..GFS and NAM snowfall maps were hideous for the coast..if the models are saying this within 24 hours that's a warning sign..also if we had real cold air to start with the 920 line would have no effect..the airmass was stale..just a few observations

You can see already the precip dying out over NJ/eastern PA and consolidating over the ocean. I'm really not liking this for western Long Island. Maybe eastern Long Island can salvage something at the end.

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Light rain here now, with some sleet. Radar doesn't look that great either, with only patches of slightly heavier precip. Starting to think that 2 inches will just about do it here. For days I figured this would be no better than a 2 inch storm, so I can't complain. I got my 2 inches.

agreed. was hoping to at least cover the grass. maybe next time. melting pretty fast too.

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Nobody should be surprised by this especially on the Island..soundings were horrible yesterday..they all said rain..GFS and NAM snowfall maps were hideous for the coast..if the models are saying this within 24 hours that's a warning sign..also if we had real cold air to start with the 920 line would have no effect..the airmass was stale..just a few observations

Yup we were told. We just didn't want to listen. I'm still hanging on for pulling a rabbit out of the hat later on the north shore. Some people (i.e., me) never learn :)

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Did you guys see this???

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0122 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LONG ISLAND THRU MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 291922Z - 292315Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR

INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY 23-00Z...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH

02-03Z...AND PERHAPS BEYOND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH DEEPENING

OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST

ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR SINCE MID MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE

INDICATES THAT RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO

THE EVENING HOURS...AND BEYOND...AS IT MIGRATES INTO AREAS SOUTH AND

EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00-03Z. THIS IS EXPECTED

TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION

AND INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MID

ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC

PROFILES ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. EVEN

ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN

THE MID 30S...AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...COLD

ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE

21-00Z TIME FRAME

Still light rain here along the coast of RI... 32.5/29 - I think I see freezing rain before I see snow!

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The heavy banded precip will probably consolidate towards the coastal low. So western LI will probably be the biggest screw zone. Too far east for the initial snow, and too far west for the CCB. I have a feeling some places in Suffolk might do decently well.

This doesn't update nearly enough for my liking, but it does show why a good chunk of LI still has a chance and why someone in eastern New England is going to get clobbered later:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

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