Guest Pamela Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 36 with rain here but I am starting to get a little more optimistic. The banded precip organizing off the south Jersey coast with the bombing low is looking pretty good. I think we get more than just a glancing blow from that later, and probably colder. I think we should start to see the NE wind picking up fairly soon. FWIW, as of 2:20PM we have 0.10" liquid in the bucket. I'd rather it was accumulated snow on the ground, but it really isn't much so far. Anyway Ed...its always exciting to watch the rain transition to snow...assuming it does...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Plain snow, never mixed with rain, intensity barely got above light though. 1.2" so far and barely accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Going to be a race against time for many of us to get a period of good snow vs. the back edge of the precip. Hopefully cold air arrives in time and the R/S line starts collapsing pronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Latest frames have it advancing NW into NJ faster. Bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Nobody should be surprised by this especially on the Island..soundings were horrible yesterday..they all said rain..GFS and NAM snowfall maps were hideous for the coast..if the models are saying this within 24 hours that's a warning sign..also if we had real cold air to start with the 920 line would have no effect..the airmass was stale..just a few observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Latest frames have it advancing NW into NJ faster. Bad news. Its going after Earhtlight and Forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Latest frames have it advancing NW into NJ faster. Bad news. Can report that it changed to all rain 10 minutes ago in westfield after flirting with the R/S line for 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Did you ever change over in central Somerset from snow? I'm in millburn Essex county, haven't changed here, my parents are in hillsborough and they just mixed with a little sleet per them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Nobody should be surprised by this especially on the Island..soundings were horrible yesterday..they all said rain..GFS and NAM snowfall maps were hideous for the coast..if the models are saying this within 24 hours that's a warning sign..also if we had real cold air to start with the 920 line would have no effect..the airmass was stale..just a few observations You can see already the precip dying out over NJ/eastern PA and consolidating over the ocean. I'm really not liking this for western Long Island. Maybe eastern Long Island can salvage something at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Anyway Ed...its always exciting to watch the rain transition to snow...assuming it does...lol I might be wishing a little too hard, but that radar does look good to me. I think in a couple of hours the tenor of posts around here will have reversed, even if the precip type hasn't just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Appears to be very close to changing here. Must be warm layer between 900-950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 925mb circulation still fighting over PA, not wanting to hand the energy completely to the coastal low yet. Once it does, we'll probably be done precipitating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Light rain here now, with some sleet. Radar doesn't look that great either, with only patches of slightly heavier precip. Starting to think that 2 inches will just about do it here. For days I figured this would be no better than a 2 to 4 inch storm, so I can't complain. I got my 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Did you ever change over in central Somerset from snow? I haven't seen anything but snow here in Bridgewater. That rain/snow line must be getting very close though. Up to 2.5'' but it's just snowing very lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 A lot of precip intensification just south of LI, if we can get that later when the colder air arrives, look for big time snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Light snow here now... If we don't see some precip developing over NJ with that coastal, its not going to be fun to read this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 27 over 25 here in Sparta, NW NJ. Temp down from a high of 29 an hour or so ago. Currently in a lull of light snow but been mostly moderate snow w/ ~ 2.5" thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I haven't seen anything but snow here in Bridgewater. That rain/snow line must be getting very close though. Up to 2.5'' but it's just snowing very lightly. It's pretty close to where you are. I changed over about an hour ago to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Its going after Earhtlight and Forky. It's pretty much there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 light rain and very light snow mix here in belle mead, looking like all she wrote for accumulations, going to get ready to go out plowing soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Light rain here now, with some sleet. Radar doesn't look that great either, with only patches of slightly heavier precip. Starting to think that 2 inches will just about do it here. For days I figured this would be no better than a 2 inch storm, so I can't complain. I got my 2 inches. agreed. was hoping to at least cover the grass. maybe next time. melting pretty fast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Melting layer is going for SMQ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The heavy banded precip will probably consolidate towards the coastal low. So western LI will probably be the biggest screw zone. Too far east for the initial snow, and too far west for the CCB. I have a feeling some places in Suffolk might do decently well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Nobody should be surprised by this especially on the Island..soundings were horrible yesterday..they all said rain..GFS and NAM snowfall maps were hideous for the coast..if the models are saying this within 24 hours that's a warning sign..also if we had real cold air to start with the 920 line would have no effect..the airmass was stale..just a few observations Yup we were told. We just didn't want to listen. I'm still hanging on for pulling a rabbit out of the hat later on the north shore. Some people (i.e., me) never learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 After an hour of poor snow growth with light snow and small flakes, much larger flakes have begun falling here in the past 10 minutes. Temp:30.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The mild SST's even let LGA turn over to rain on a NE wind without a good Arctic high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks like its transitioning to rain here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Did you guys see this??? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LONG ISLAND THRU MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 291922Z - 292315Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY 23-00Z...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 02-03Z...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. DISCUSSION...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR SINCE MID MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND BEYOND...AS IT MIGRATES INTO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00-03Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. EVEN ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S...AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME Still light rain here along the coast of RI... 32.5/29 - I think I see freezing rain before I see snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Mixing has reached Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The heavy banded precip will probably consolidate towards the coastal low. So western LI will probably be the biggest screw zone. Too far east for the initial snow, and too far west for the CCB. I have a feeling some places in Suffolk might do decently well. This doesn't update nearly enough for my liking, but it does show why a good chunk of LI still has a chance and why someone in eastern New England is going to get clobbered later: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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