JBG Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 00Z Nam is 'bout .40-.45 prec.for NYC metro. With expected ratios does that work out to around 4-5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not getting my hopes up here on the Island..expecting mainly rain on the south shore..in every snowfall map I have seen by GFS ect..the most I see is an inch here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks like sref cut down on amounts a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not getting my hopes up here on the Island..expecting mainly rain on the south shore..in every snowfall map I have seen by GFS ect..the most I see is an inch here Snowfall maps by most models, especially like the GFS treat LI likes it's part of the ocean, so that's why you see basically nothing for LI. I'm very sure we'll get over an inch. I don't think this will be a rain event, maybe some mix and a change over to rain for a very brief period of time at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 SREF Ensembles and mean, not bad at all, still some mixing problems at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Ratios prob close to 10 to 1, maybe closer to 8 to 1 by the southern shores with more marginal temps.. With expected ratios does that work out to around 4-5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAM is mighty warm in the low levels...there seems to be a sneaky warm layer near 925mb and the p-type maps are catching on and showing a transition to rain for a period making it all the way up to Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This sucks.. When and why did this storm go warm on us? Maybe the NAM is on crack? This is more typical of our winters, so i can't say that i am surprised.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This sucks.. When and why did this storm go warm on us? Maybe the NAM is on crack? This is more typical of our winters, so i can't say that i am surprised.. yep what we had in the last 10 years was not typical..I guess it's the water temps..whatever it's just weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Nam shows an banding with the vortmax from about Harrisburg- E of Scranton-Albany to NH coast. dry stripe over I95. Hope that doesn't verify, or all those places will have 5-7" while we get a slushy inch. Edit:18z GFS had us in the Vortmax!! I'll take it over the NAM even if the NAM spits out double the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 The NAM is just a hair too slow to close off the mid level centers. The high resolution models that show the CCB developing overhead close off the mid level centers just a few hours sooner. Should be fun to track this one tomorrow. I wouldn't worry too much about the NAM being a bit warm at least in the city and west. It ran several degrees too warm with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think NE PA into NW NJ as well as the north coast of LI into CT and MA get the best of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 850 low is too close to the coast as it merges with the one upstate. 850's still remain below freezing with the exception of coastal NJ. NAM is torching us and giving us rain almost the entire event. But that doesn't seem like what a sfc low would do moving out the delmarva and deepening as it shoots out the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The NAM is just a hair too slow to close off the mid level centers. The high resolution models that show the CCB developing overhead close off the mid level centers just a few hours sooner. Should be fun to track this one tomorrow. I wouldn't worry too much about the NAM being a bit warm at least in the city and west. It ran several degrees too warm with the last storm. from tony gigi (rainshadow) in the philly forum: "At 0Z, IAD sounding had -1.9 at 925 and -1.3 at 850. NAM initialized with ~-1.5 at 925 and +0.1 at 850. At 0Z, WAL sounding had -0.1 at 925 and +2.6 at 850. NAM initialized with ~+0.5 at 925 and +2.0 at 850. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 from tony gigi (rainshadow) in the philly forum: "At 0Z, IAD sounding had -1.9 at 925 and -1.3 at 850. NAM initialized with ~-1.5 at 925 and +0.1 at 850. At 0Z, WAL sounding had -0.1 at 925 and +2.6 at 850. NAM initialized with ~+0.5 at 925 and +2.0 at 850. " you mean ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think NE PA into NW NJ as well as the north coast of LI into CT and MA get the best of this This reminds me of the early 90's when Joe Coffi (one of the best) on News 12 LI who would talk about the LIE (495) being the split between good snows to the north and wetter solutions to the south, on LI.. This whole idea has escaped me over the past decade as it hasn't really been a factor.. Perhaps tomorrow it is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 850 low is too close to the coast as it merges with the one upstate. 850's still remain below freezing with the exception of coastal NJ. NAM is torching us and giving us rain almost the entire event. But that doesn't seem like what a sfc low would do moving out the delmarva and deepening as it shoots out the NE. The problem is by the time those warmer temps near the coast here its 21Z. BY that point we're probably snowing for several hours. This is the sort of system where if its going to be rain I think it will start as rain, if it starts as snow its going to be very hard at that point to get it over except for eastern LI and coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I really think anyone north of Atlantic city stays mostly all snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This reminds me of the early 90's when Joe Coffi (one of the best) on News 12 LI who would talk about the LIE (495) being the split between good snows to the north and wetter solutions to the south, on LI.. This whole idea has escaped me over the past decade as it hasn't really been a factor.. Perhaps tomorrow it is.. it does happen but it's rare..usually when it's rain in Babylon it's rain in Huntington..also weather in Islip is usually close to weather at JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 you mean ray oo wow.. der der derrr I coulda swore that was Rainshadow when i read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Nam shows an banding with the vortmax from about Harrisburg- E of Scranton-Albany to NH coast. dry stripe over I95. Hope that doesn't verify, or all those places will have 5-7" while we get a slushy inch. Edit:18z GFS had us in the Vortmax!! I'll take it over the NAM even if the NAM spits out double the QPF. Mentioned this earlier ... but the 18z GFS tried to develop the CCB overhead and had very impressive uvv's from Newark eastward but didn't produce the big QPF. So we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 it does happen but it's rare..usually when it's rain in Babylon it's rain in Huntington..also weather in Islip is usually close to weather at JFK Those splits are more common in Nassau county. In February 1999 there was a storm where the south shore of Nassau saw all rain from about 5am -10am while the entire north shore saw a crippling ice storm with power outages all over the place. 12/19/95 and 2/11//94 also had some notable differences between north and south shore in Nassau but those were mainly sleet/snow differences not rain/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAM is mighty warm in the low levels...there seems to be a sneaky warm layer near 925mb and the p-type maps are catching on and showing a transition to rain for a period making it all the way up to Newark. That's not a very good sign. NAM tends to run too cold in the thermal layers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 There is very little rain with ths period. If u live on the imm coast yes. You guys r taking ths numerical proggs as gospel. The 850 s r fine. The 925 s may hinder coast for 3 hrs. Central nj south eastern li yes. The euro is far enough off shore. Ths is a snow evenr for 80 perc of ths board. I cant get over the model hugging and the limited met work to see the errors here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That's not a very good sign. NAM tends to run too cold in the thermal layers.... Not recently....it was the warmest model in the 12/27 SW flow event, having almost all rain for the area, and busted horribly. Euro did the best with the 12/27 storm in terms of temperature profiles by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 My high was originally supposed to be in the low 30's. Now it is going to be near 40 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 My high was originally supposed to be in the low 30's. Now it is going to be near 40 tomorrow. I believe OKX is torching the highs tomorrow way too much. Even the extremely warm NAM shows temps in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Those splits are more common in Nassau county. In February 1999 there was a storm where the south shore of Nassau saw all rain from about 5am -10am while the entire north shore saw a crippling ice storm with power outages all over the place. 12/19/95 and 2/11//94 also had some notable differences between north and south shore in Nassau but those were mainly sleet/snow differences not rain/snow. Neat example in Suffolk was 2/5/2001...Port Jeff went over to snow at dusk and accumulated just under 8"...transition was slower 12 miles to the south in Patchogue where, although it eventually snowed, only about 2 inches accumulated. However during the 1993-94 winter, this was very common...with the N. Shore receiving about 60 inches on the winter and the S. Shore closer to 40 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 yep what we had in the last 10 years was not typical..I guess it's the water temps..whatever it's just weather Haarp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Upton has me at 40 now too and im just South of the lie in western nassau.. Going to be interesting watching how this unfolds.. Right now my temp is only down to 30 was hoping it would be colder.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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