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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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Per SUNY MM5 you (Smithtown) are in the clear Ed...warmest seems to be around 2:30 PM..and temps should fall thereafter. Heaviest snow in our area between 3:00 PM and 8:00 PM. Only problem is quick movement...not much west of us after 7:00 PM.

With the way the radar is blossoming south of LI, there could be some serious lost opportunity between now and 3PM. Its a very light mix here now and temp is about scraping 36. I'm hoping to see more snow if it gets a little heavier, but hope does spring eternal.

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And thats why I am not a pro met. Not even a flake at the start in Wantagh plain rain and 35 after some nice radiational cooling last night got us into the mid 20's... You learn as you go I guess I never thought such a light east flow could do this and bam it did. Moving 6 miles NE from Long Beach was not enough!

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This is the initial punch of the mid level warming , it will start to ease off through the next few hours from west to east and from north to south , so If you are raining on Long Island chill you will snow later , and this is why the GFS - NAM snow maps for zero snow on Long Island are to be ignored .

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How about we just make definitive statements after the storm has departed. I hate all these claims and definitive statements being made before the event even begins. If people knew what was going to happen there would be no need for discussion and no uncertainty. Let's see what happens today and how this unfolds. It is very well possible somewhere like the city could benefit from stronger banding which could boost their total. Precipitation amounts vary greatly across the board.

The radar trends pretty much agree with the GFS/SREF that the heaviest precip is east and that the NAM

looks overdone further west. But higher ratios there should compensate somewhat for the lower

precip amounts than the NAM has.

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