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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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From Stony Brook to Rocky Point seems to be the big snow belt on the Island if I recall correctly from Northshorewx's great maps. This storm looks to perhaps be one of those where, at least on Island, those of up north can do better.

I'd shift that zone farther to the west and include parts of the north shore of Nassau. Those maps are skewed towards some particularly good C-E LI winters in the 2000s. You could probably find a similar period where the bullesye was Nassau - western Suffolk.

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Very Heavy snow in Liberty NY 1-2 inches an hour 23 degrees. I haven't seen snow thisheavy since 12.26.10.

A few hours of this and 6 inches easily.

Appears you are scoring from the shield progressing northward mainly associated with the primary low. It appears that will move out for your locale in a little while. The secondary low's precip shield is filling in nicely and steadily progressing northward. The key for our areas (NW zones) is how far west the best bands get. You may score your best snows early with lighter snows later while further SE scores better snows later. In reality all that matters is we get some snow to enjoy whether it be 3-5" or 5-8".

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Appears you are scoring from the shield progressing northward mainly associated with the primary low. It appears that will move out for your locale in a little while. The secondary low's precip shield is filling in nicely and steadily progressing northward. The key for our areas (NW zones) is how far west the best bands get. You may score your best snows early with lighter snows later while further SE scores better snows later. In reality all that matters is we get some snow to enjoy whether it be 3-5" or 5-8".

Temps in the 20's, Excellent ratios, should be on target for a nice advisory event maybe even a low end warning event

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I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little worried. Models picked up on this insidious bleeding warmth. No major WAA, just some warm steam spilling over from the teakettle.

That's why I still think if we can get steady snow in here early enough we can maintain a 32 isothermal profile that could work out nicely. I do realize I am going against the model output on that one and so far at least, the bleeding warmth idea is not wrong.

Temp here is now 35 with a few spits of snow now and then.

Per SUNY MM5 you (Smithtown) are in the clear Ed...warmest seems to be around 2:30 PM..and temps should fall thereafter. Heaviest snow in our area between 3:00 PM and 8:00 PM. Only problem is quick movement...not much west of us after 7:00 PM.

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