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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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KJFK is 34/25 with a NE wind at 9mph. Pretty much aligns with what you have been saying for the T/TD spread for days now. And great to see the winds are still NE.

This could pull a 1/2001 or a 1/29/04 and be a stubborn sleet storm for awhile though, there is potential for that, Wrightstown is now reporting UP. If anything this was the biggest threat I foresaw here was a nasty long sleet period, thats more typical when a close tracking low occurs with marginal 850-1000mb temps.

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This could pull a 1/2001 or a 1/29/04 and be a stubborn sleet storm for awhile though, there is potential for that, Wrightstown is now reporting UP. If anything this was the biggest threat I foresaw here was a nasty long sleet period, thats more typical when a close tracking low occurs with marginal 850-1000mb temps.

Agreed. Because we have really poor snow growth at this time. Things will get better though once the coastal low really takes shape and the mid level centers from the coastal takes off - that should help with our snow growth. Hopefully we can maintain a favorable T/Td spread.

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Agreed. Because we have really poor snow growth at this time. Things will get better though once the coastal low really takes shape and the mid level centers from the coastal takes off - that should help with our snow growth. Hopefully we can maintain a favorable T/Td spread.

The radar actually looks alot like it did early on in that January 04 storm over NJ, very convective appearance to the precip.

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Can confirm...hoping for a good one on the N. Shore.

From Stony Brook to Rocky Point seems to be the big snow belt on the Island if I recall correctly from Northshorewx's great maps. This storm looks to perhaps be one of those where, at least on Island, those of up north can do better.

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Can confirm...hoping for a good one on the N. Shore.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little worried. Models picked up on this insidious bleeding warmth. No major WAA, just some warm steam spilling over from the teakettle.

That's why I still think if we can get steady snow in here early enough we can maintain a 32 isothermal profile that could work out nicely. I do realize I am going against the model output on that one and so far at least, the bleeding warmth idea is not wrong.

Temp here is now 35 with a few spits of snow now and then.

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