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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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We are supposed to drive from Norfolk up to NYC today. I had been thinking if we left in the early afternoon we'd mostly be following behind it, but what do you all think the roads (mostly NJ TP) will be like in the evening, say 6:00 to 10:00?

How far south do think we'll first run into snow?

No 4WD. Driving a Chevy Malibu.

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The NAM initialization is too far west with the precip shield as it is just cloudy now where the NAM

was showing precip over VA.

The radar is blowing up and filling all those areas in. Coastal beginning this transformation. Don't worry the adjustment is coming.

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The radar is blowing up and filling all those areas in. Coastal beginning this transformation. Don't worry the adjustment is coming.

I think it is clear that this will happen but happen too far East for many of us to experience significant snow amounts. Still a widespread 3" snowfall for most though. Looks like places around Boston could get hammered with 10-14"

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I think it is clear that this will happen but happen too far East for many of us to experience significant snow amounts. Still a widespread 3" snowfall for most though. Looks like places around Boston could get hammered with 10-14"

This has always been modeled as a moderate snowfall. That is still the case, we were never expecting huge amounts here. Radar is filling in nicely and should deliver a moderate snowfall to most.

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It is going to fill in but the .5 precip line will be out over LI not over NYC.

How about we just make definitive statements after the storm has departed. I hate all these claims and definitive statements being made before the event even begins. If people knew what was going to happen there would be no need for discussion and no uncertainty. Let's see what happens today and how this unfolds. It is very well possible somewhere like the city could benefit from stronger banding which could boost their total. Precipitation amounts vary greatly across the board.

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How about we just make definitive statements after the storm has departed. I hate all these claims and definitive statements being made before the event even begins. If people knew what was going to happen there would be no need for discussion and no uncertainty. Let's see what happens today and how this unfolds. It is very well possible somewhere like the city could benefit from stronger banding which could boost their total. Precipitation amounts vary greatly across the board.

This.

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It is going to fill in but the .5 precip line will be out over LI not over NYC.

All that convection moving off Hatteras is the system taking over , you see the radar fill in over VA in the last hour,

You will see the whole radar light up by 11 am just to your south .

Take a look at that deepening 1004 to 988 on the Nam in 12 hours, then to 976 east of boston . Someone up there has to see a foot .

Once poast 12z the 925 mb levels back off , and its gona force UPTON to put WWA back up for Nassau and Suffolk counties at least north of LIE .

Still think lotta pp see 4 inches just away from the imm shore line

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33 degrees here in Brooklyn already UGH

Its minus 3 at 850 , relax once the precip starts you go back to 0 c even if you get to 35 .

Look at the radar in DC and see what evap cooling did for them in the past hour .

You will mix today when the 925`s line gets to the coast , but you will go back to Snow

and will accumulate after .

Patience .

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