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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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Here is what I see sitting here , the current 850s are strung from DC thru AC , surface temps are close to 30 even on the coastal plain. As ths storm gets going later at NO point do people's 850 go above minus 1 -and the argument can be made it closer to minus 3. Surface temps prob get to the lower and mid 30s today. So they fall once the precip gets going , prob back to 0c The 6z nam shows a punch of warm air at 12z at 925 mb and it backs it down 3 hrs later. Here's what I thnk the models see the energy in the deepening phase and transfer that heat all the way thru NYC north shore of Ll I and anyone south of 78 east of the tpke. And i believe thats the error , As it is you snow mix and go back to snow in those areas. Being up on the north shore today on the water in Nassau county I don't see a change at all. I am not speaking of the south shore. South jersey coast or east end because there an E wind does hurt u for a bit. But I don't see a rainy day for the coast. And the fact that upton took down advisories makes me scratch my head because no forecast is a lock , so why run that risk of getting caught in a hair splitting forecast. I think this is a solid 4 inch shot w some 6 showing up to the north and northeast thru CT. On the coast I still don't see how you don't pick up 2 inches. I can't buy 40 and rain. I've never seen a BM storm do that. Mayb today will b my first

Have to agree...having gone a year and the first month of winter with very little snow, I think Upton may be slightly gun shy. I could be wrong, time will tell.

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The HRRR model is pretty accurate when it comes to radar representation under 10 hours. It has trended like the 6z NAM during its 10z run, I'm rooting it on here just NE of Philly, this would be a great trend. It says the radar gap completely fills by 9-11am, then really starts to crank as the ULL catches up

Here is how it showed the current radar (pretty accurate)

post-8091-0-05462400-1356785855_thumb.pn

then it fills in and starts cranking...

post-8091-0-77360300-1356785799_thumb.pn

The current HRRR pretty much confirms what I have been thinking the last 1-2 hours, this event now is probably relegated to being a coastal event...you may see 1-2 inches west of 95 but its likely the CCB is going to hit from NYC east or slightly west of that since often times it ends up a bit west of where the models show it. I'd say there is nothing to see here really til 18-19Z other than some light snow across inland areas.

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Guest Patrick

its painful...and they just dont stop.

the hrrr et al still show a general 2-4, 3-5 snowfall. storm uncancel, back up from that ledge, put away the pills.

Guys will you calm down the radar is going to fill in. This is nuts reading some of the idiotic comments on here

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06z NAM too warm especially further south. 06z NAM has Cape May around 44, currently only 37. We'll see what the 12z brings, hopefully more precip, filling the gap, and colder.

The precip shield looks like what the GFS was showing right now. The .5 in precip line will be from ISP east

with closer to .3-.4 city and Nassau.

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