Guest Pamela Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Here is what I see sitting here , the current 850s are strung from DC thru AC , surface temps are close to 30 even on the coastal plain. As ths storm gets going later at NO point do people's 850 go above minus 1 -and the argument can be made it closer to minus 3. Surface temps prob get to the lower and mid 30s today. So they fall once the precip gets going , prob back to 0c The 6z nam shows a punch of warm air at 12z at 925 mb and it backs it down 3 hrs later. Here's what I thnk the models see the energy in the deepening phase and transfer that heat all the way thru NYC north shore of Ll I and anyone south of 78 east of the tpke. And i believe thats the error , As it is you snow mix and go back to snow in those areas. Being up on the north shore today on the water in Nassau county I don't see a change at all. I am not speaking of the south shore. South jersey coast or east end because there an E wind does hurt u for a bit. But I don't see a rainy day for the coast. And the fact that upton took down advisories makes me scratch my head because no forecast is a lock , so why run that risk of getting caught in a hair splitting forecast. I think this is a solid 4 inch shot w some 6 showing up to the north and northeast thru CT. On the coast I still don't see how you don't pick up 2 inches. I can't buy 40 and rain. I've never seen a BM storm do that. Mayb today will b my first Have to agree...having gone a year and the first month of winter with very little snow, I think Upton may be slightly gun shy. I could be wrong, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Guys will you calm down the radar is going to fill in. This is nuts reading some of the idiotic comments on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The HRRR model is pretty accurate when it comes to radar representation under 10 hours. It has trended like the 6z NAM during its 10z run, I'm rooting it on here just NE of Philly, this would be a great trend. It says the radar gap completely fills by 9-11am, then really starts to crank as the ULL catches up Here is how it showed the current radar (pretty accurate) then it fills in and starts cranking... The current HRRR pretty much confirms what I have been thinking the last 1-2 hours, this event now is probably relegated to being a coastal event...you may see 1-2 inches west of 95 but its likely the CCB is going to hit from NYC east or slightly west of that since often times it ends up a bit west of where the models show it. I'd say there is nothing to see here really til 18-19Z other than some light snow across inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I say the moderators should ban everyone that makes a "storm cancel" post prior to the start of the today's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 its painful...and they just dont stop. the hrrr et al still show a general 2-4, 3-5 snowfall. storm uncancel, back up from that ledge, put away the pills. Guys will you calm down the radar is going to fill in. This is nuts reading some of the idiotic comments on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 31.7/ DP 26.8 Doesn't look like snow. Temps really warm, running only 1 degree cooler than NAM guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm not gonna say the HRRR will be totally correct, but I've seen it score coups. We'll see. If the 12z NAM goes wide right I'd give up here in Philly. Though you guys could still do alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm still on the snow train till the bitter end. I think this coastal storm is gonna surprise alot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm not sure what to expect in my area in northern cnj. Sitting at 29 now. The rain/snow line seems to always be in my area on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 There's bands of snow reaching towards Morristown, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 30.2F here in Northeast NJ (Cliffside Park) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm not sure what to expect either. I would hate for this to turn to rain. Still doesn't seem like a coastal low that's passing near the BM would bring mostly rain. Maybe some light rain to start, but we should be mostly snow, especially when the heavy stuff gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Perfect, I'll be arriving at the in laws in the Poconos (Exit 13, Route 380) starting tomorrow right at the height of the heaviest snows. We have a place at Exit 13 in Gouldsboro (Big Bass Lake). I would expect 6" there on top of 4"already on ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 30.7F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 EPAWA just posted this to their FB page: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 06z NAM too warm especially further south. 06z NAM has Cape May around 44, currently only 37. We'll see what the 12z brings, hopefully more precip, filling the gap, and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 EPAWA just posted this to their FB page: The gap will fill pretty quickly by 11 AM. The 700 mB RH Values should be very moist from the complete coastal formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 First flakes in Byram Township, NJ. I counted 6. 26 degrees 22 degree dew point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 06z NAM too warm especially further south. 06z NAM has Cape May around 44, currently only 37. We'll see what the 12z brings, hopefully more precip, filling the gap, and colder. The precip shield looks like what the GFS was showing right now. The .5 in precip line will be from ISP east with closer to .3-.4 city and Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z nam .5+ from garden state parkway east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z NAM looks good w/ a deform band by 21z. Coastal deepening a bit quicker. What we needed to occur w/ the faster development is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z NAM Looks pretty decent from my amateur eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Temp. 33/DP. 29/Humidity 86%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The DP is starting to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAM KNYC SAT 7A 29-DEC -1.2 -1.7 1014 86 88 552 541 SAT 1P 29-DEC 1.3 -4.1 1006 93 97 0.08 544 539 SAT 7P 29-DEC -0.2 -4.6 1000 96 95 0.37 533 533 SUN 1A 30-DEC -1.5 -7.0 1003 88 72 0.06 529 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAM KNYC SAT 7A 29-DEC -1.2 -1.7 1014 86 88 552 541 SAT 1P 29-DEC 1.3 -4.1 1006 93 97 0.08 544 539 SAT 7P 29-DEC -0.2 -4.6 1000 96 95 0.37 533 533 SUN 1A 30-DEC -1.5 -7.0 1003 88 72 0.06 529 527 .51" of liquid and mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm pretty worried guys. This seems like a sne storm, while we get a few flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The NAM initialization is too far west with the precip shield as it is just cloudy now where the NAM was showing precip over VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z NAM starts LI with snow. Good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z NAM starts LI with snow. Good sign! What about NYC 5 boroughs? Mostly queens & Brooklyn do we all stay snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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