lindywx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Ballsy move by Upton to drop the advisories for L.I. If the 6Z Nam comes close to verifying with It's 1"+ QPF for much of the Island then much of that falls as heavy rain. I just don't see that happening. I would think a heavy wet snow would be more likely. Nevertheless this will be an interesting day to nowcast as the event unfolds. I would think north of the L.I.E from Nassau County eastbound to about the William Floyd Pkwy see an appreciable snowfall with areas south of the L.I.E. waiting till after sunset to see accumulating snow. A fun day ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The GFS shadows the hell out of E PA and NJ. Amazing how different the guidance is currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Nice little high resolution - global model battle going down to the wire here. 06z RGEM came back west and wetter compared to the 00z run. Still warm along the coast but brings more QPF to NJ/etc which it had taken away at 00z. Still warm near the coast but much better for interests in NE NJ, SE NY, CT. The total snowfall (bottom graphic) is almost spot on to the NAM...just a little less near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The GFS shadows the hell out of E PA and NJ. Amazing how different the guidance is currently. Yeah the models have really struggled with this one, it's definitely a wait and see type scenario then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 The only difference between the NAM and RGEM now is a sharp cutoff due to warm lower layers near NYC and Long Island with the NAM showing much more snow on Long Island. Comparing the two, there is strong agreement on a band of heavier snows from Northeast NJ into Connecticut and Southeast SNE. RGEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_06/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif NAM: http://meteocentre.com/models/nam_amer_qc_06/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Hopefully the coastal gets cranking even a bit earlier than the models suggest because that we'll really be the difference for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Nice little high resolution - global model battle going down to the wire here.06z RGEM came back west and wetter compared to the 00z run. Still warm along the coast but brings more QPF to NJ/etc which it had taken away at 00z. Still warm near the coast but much better for interests in NE NJ, SE NY, CT. The total snowfall (bottom graphic) is almost spot on to the NAM...just a little less near NYC. Here was the 00z RGEM, for comparison. The 6z RGEM is significantly improved, even for coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 A few of us talked about this earlier, but the NAM closes off the mid level centers two or three hours earlier than it was previously. The best lift shifts to the NW side of the surface low which is slightly more tucked in off the coast. As a result the CCB develops basically overhead and you can see it here with this banding signal over NE NJ and NYC. http://www.meteo.psu...C4_6z/rad16.gif It's honestly nice to see you guys east into the city with a shot at some weenie banding... We'll take our 3-5" of fresh powder and be quite happy out here in the great NW. 25 degrees 22 dewpoint 36 degrees Beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Will be interesting to see what happens. Just waking up and checking a few things via mobile and HRRR seems to be overdoing radar echoes and doesn't adequately show dry air nosing from E WV into NW VA and towards eastern PA. Looks like the two areas of precip diverge and we rely heavily on the coastal low. HRRR does throw back good snowfall rates into NE NJ and CT though. Tight call for NYC and LI also with marginal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The gap between these two does make me nervous. If the GFS is right (which I know this is not its best range), there will be a lot of dissapointed folks due to the dry slot between the Northern stream and the coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm in northern queens talk about splitting the short hairs let me start pissing on sparkplugs again sometimes it works it prime up the snowthrower Lol .Last week it was snowing at the top of the whitestone bridge mixed at the bottom pretty cool of course i'm freaking out and everyone in the car wanted me committed see ya . Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Temp. 31/DP. 27/Humidity 86%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Just dropped to 32 here in queens the usual for this time of day marginal temps have me concerned hopefully its not moveover rover let the marine environment takeover a little hendrix to break up the tension in nowcasting mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 30.6/ DP. 26.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The 540 thickness contour is where the R/S line will set up today. The mixing line should get as far NW as to within a few miles of JFK. As the storm really bombs out everyone should end as a period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Your mouth to g-ds ears this is a met's nightmare trust me bustorama in either direction . Yeah, pretty much anywhere from 0 to 6 inches is legit right now for alot of areas. I would actually feel better now from say eastern NJ eastward. I just don't think inland areas are gonna do to well from the dying primary or the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Your mouth to g-ds ears this is a met's nightmare trust me bustorama in either direction . When we get the heavier burst of snow later this afternoon, the storm is going to be progressive enough that just as we start to accumulate the storm will wind down early this evening. After the Island mixes with rain we need the 500 mb center to close off like Christmas 2002 to do more than a few slushy inches. This storm won't close off until it reaches the Canadian Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Halifax/ newfoundland orgasm my unc was stationed up there during the cold war norad man the snow was silly always with blizzard criteria, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The radar is mighty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Upton says 2-3 for me in Brooklyn, expecting rain but hoping for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The radar is mighty ugly. It'll be fine once the coastal gets going but I would not feel too good right now north and west of a line from say Princeton-Morristown-Danbury and I might even be too far west with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Be grateful remember last year or as J.B woulld say the ducks are on the pond regardless of todays storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well at least they are doing good from this, AWESOME parties at IUP.http://www.opentopia.com/webcam/3276?viewmode=livevideo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It'll be fine once the coastal gets going but I would not feel too good right now north and west of a line from say Princeton-Morristown-Danbury and I might even be too far west with that. I hear you. The only hope I think is our elevation and some lift... Odd that HPC has our neck of the woods with a 40% chance of 4+... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yeah, pretty much anywhere from 0 to 6 inches is legit right now for alot of areas. I would actually feel better now from say eastern NJ eastward. I just don't think inland areas are gonna do to well from the dying primary or the coastal. ...love the persistence SG..I'm hanging my hat on your discussions/reasoning.. currently 29*,mostly cloudy..here on the east end.. looks right..feels right..smells right..hoping your right ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I was worried about the r/s line yesterday for LI. Not expecting much from this system, because the llv cold air is just not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 this. Can't wait to see the freakout when there's a bit of shadowing between the initial lift over PA/NY and the coastal...should make it look like a nice screw zone setting up over NYC and I'm sure it will take less than 30 minutes for Noreaster27 and others to come in screaming about a bust. Save this post for tomorrow morning around 9am. You can see it here on the NAM http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAFLOAT_6z/f12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 this. Impressive. That's why we're amateurs and they are the pros! When does he sleep anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Bad karma i won't be disappointed i'd pass up 5 of these for one mommaluka with cad in place and know roll of the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The HRRR model is pretty accurate when it comes to radar representation under 10 hours. It has trended like the 6z NAM during its 10z run, I'm rooting it on here just NE of Philly, this would be a great trend. It says the radar gap completely fills by 9-11am, then really starts to crank as the ULL catches up. Just to add to it I compared the 01z HRRR's 9hr radar forecast to the 10z HRRR initialization radar composite and it made a very accurate prediction..Shows the gap clearly... At least something to root for. Here is how it showed the current radar (pretty accurate) then it fills in and starts cranking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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