earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 SREFs in a few should kick off the 00z suite. 2-5" looks good areawide. Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Lets hope we can tick NW again in tonights 00zs and get our area under a better ccb before we start nowcasting..If not, then i will glady take my 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 SREFs in a few should kick off the 00z suite. 2-5" looks good areawide. Good luck to all. good post. /thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 SREFs look about the same, maybe a hair stronger. Ticked north and west with the 0.50" contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 0.50"+ line extends into central and NE jersey now. So a slight improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 RUC at 18 hrs is hella ramped up. FWIW...Very warm though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAM looks pretty significantly more phased than the 12 and 18z run so far through only 6 hours. The height field on the east coast is not much more amplified...but the phase happening sooner and a stronger vort is just as big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Shouldn't this still be a 12/29 storm threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Hey my account still works, apparently. Anyway, I feel good about 2.5 to 5 or 3 to 6 area wide (save immediate shores). Two other comments: I saw someone link to MOS data as a sounding in the prior thread... It's not. Second, I was surprised that the NWS includes all the boros in the same advisory, and then notes that higher amounts will be away from the shore. Why not just split the southern boros (or southern part of Queens and BK for instance) into their own advisory... then include the northern boros in the one for the northern suburbs? Cutting hairs I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Shouldn't this still be a 12/29 storm threat? Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Through 15 hours this run looks better than 18z to me. The new ARW sends weenies into a frenzy with a CCB and ends up with about 1.00" over NYC. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/f27.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 The h5 trough on this run is arguably even better oriented than it was on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The h5 trough on this run is arguably even better oriented than it was on the 12z NAM. def some more amplification. Just wondering if we've run out of time on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Slightly odd lack of more organized precip through 18 hours...but light/moderate precipitation for everyone so far. Surface low went from inside OBX to southeast of Ocean City MD. Best dynamics must be ready to get going soon. 21 hours should be a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 As expected a nice hit at 21 hours. Surface low in a similar position to 12z, maybe a hair stronger. Mid levels look to be a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Slightly odd lack of more organized precip through 18 hours...but light/moderate precipitation for everyone so far. Surface low went from inside OBX to southeast of Ocean City MD. Best dynamics must be ready to get going soon. 21 hours should be a nice hit. .25-.50 for SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 at 21hr, decent hit...best stuff still offshore though. looks cold enough for everyone besides E LI and SE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Solid hit....still in line with a 3-4" snowfall here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 925mb temperatures get very borderline for a period at 21 hours...we could overcome that with moderate precipitation rates but it definitely will be iffy on the coast and from NYC east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 higher qpf tpwards the center, but thats offshore. Looks about the same As 18z with the precip field/ amount. maybe differences in tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Highest totals and best snow growth in NE PA...maybe 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 we can keep watching the models tonight because that is what us weather donks do...but this one is locked in for everyone besides the immediate coast, who will have to nowcast tonight into tomorrow for r/s line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I don't think there will be any heavy bands with this system....just a 6-8 hour quick hit of light snow sometimes moderate that leaves a large area of a few inches with some areas receiving up to 6 or 7....and in New England some areas receiving closer to a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 at 21hr, decent hit...best stuff still offshore though. looks cold enough for everyone besides E LI and SE NJ. E long island gets into the heavy precip rates. it might overcome the boundary layer issues there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think there's still outside potential for the CCB to develop overhead and this to tick NW one more time. 11 or 12 of the SREF members have a QPF bomb over NYC and east as the best lift develops to the northwest of a surface low which is tucked in closer to the coast than most other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 At 21 hours that coastal precip shield looks like its really getting going, then at 24 its kind of ehh...just off the coast, then its bombed again at 27, if that precip shield is 30 -50 miles more northwest at 24 hours its a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks like the NAM has a QPF of around 0.5" for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 00Z Nam is 'bout .40-.45 prec.for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I don't think there will be any heavy bands with this system....just a 6-8 hour quick hit of light snow sometimes moderate that leaves a large area of a few inches with some areas receiving up to 6 or 7....and in New England some areas receiving closer to a foot The 12Z SPC WRF from earlier today sort of agrees with that idea, shows a decent hit but no notable banding as it often does show somewhere....00Z run may be different.. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 E long island gets into the heavy precip rates. it might overcome the boundary layer issues there. yup....places in E LI that stay all snow will deff cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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