Geos Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Those 850mb maps are like a night and day difference for the Midwest! Interesting that there is a Yukon vortex on the ECMWF, but not the GFS... Everything would progress along if it wasn't for the cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 The GEM looks more like a blend at that same time-frame.... The low on the GFS is non existent on the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Those 850mb maps are like a night and day difference for the Midwest! Interesting that there is a Yukon vortex on the ECMWF, but not the GFS... Everything would progress along if it wasn't for the cut off. Those maps look like they are from different time periods unless I'm getting old images on my end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 nice to have western michigan in the futility club I would prefer to NOT be...misery loves company.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 I cleaned my cache and those are what comes up for 12Z GFS/Euro. but they clearly have different time stamps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 12Z GFS forecast for 1/12/2013 cold and a chance for light snow. 12Z Euro for 1/12/2013 - high hear 50 with almost 2" of rain. Which model will win? I know which one I would pick if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 12Z GFS forecast for 1/12/2013 cold and a chance for light snow. 12Z Euro for 1/12/2013 - high hear 50 with almost 2" of rain. Which model will win? I know which one I would pick if I could. The Euro Ensembles in the upcoming runs will be very telling; if they start to trend toward the GFS wrt temps and a trough carving its way through the center of the country, then I will become a lot more confident siding with the GFS if it continues to show this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 850mb maps for NA at 168 hours. EURO top, GFS bottom. Trough in west is progressed further east on the GFS in response to that low not cutting off. Big difference in ridge strength and northward extent for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Classic winter day, intermittent light snow and temps stuck in the 20s. Snow depth of 9", more like ice sheet thickness. There's glacial like flows bulging out onto sidewalks and roads from the surrounding snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Not going anywhere is it turtle (snowpack)? I just getting some drips off the roof... We been mostly clear here since around noon...beautiful afternoon if you like sun...some wind and its still cold. Temp stuck at 20F. I'll believe a warm up when it gets here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 From LOT. Love the missing poster in the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Not going anywhere is it turtle (snowpack)? I just getting some drips off the roof... We been mostly clear here since around noon...beautiful afternoon if you like sun...some wind and its still cold. Temp stuck at 20F. I'll believe a warm up when it gets here... Yeah, this is the time of year when a projected warm up can easily fail to materialize. Models aren't that great at simulating snowpack feedbacks, especially the thin stable boundary layer generated by snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 There is plenty of winter..its just not in Chicago...head over to Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Today is my favorite type of weather... Snow on the ground, mid 20's, gray skies and flurries in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 DVN regarding next weeks system. THAT SAID...THERE ARE TWO SIGNIFICANT MODEL CAMPS WITH RESPECT TO AN EJECTING UPPER LOW/MIDWEST CYCLONE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM BOTH BRING IT OUT QUICKLY AND SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO CREATE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PREFERRED ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH DRAWING OUT A MILD CYCLONE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING RAIN...POSSIBLY MODERATE INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH VERY MID AIR. THIS STRONG CHALLENGE WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED IN THE DAYS AHEAD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. THUS OUR PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Classic winter day, intermittent light snow and temps stuck in the 20s. Snow depth of 9", more like ice sheet thickness. There's glacial like flows bulging out onto sidewalks and roads from the surrounding snow pack. That's awesome! Got any crevasses showing up!? Can easily see where the most water is in frozen form. Beaver Dam, west & east of Lake Winnebago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Lol Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 From LOT. Love the missing poster in the corner. Izzi must have made that map. Long term forecaster Marsili at IWX is favoring the slower, Euro/GEFS mean solution: VERY LARGESPREADS NOTED AMONG GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND VARIOUS DETERMINISTICSOLUTIONS REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. 12ZGFS REMAINS A PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER...ALTHOUGH 12Z GEM HAS MADE A VERYDRAMATIC JUMP FROM 00Z CYCLE IN TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS. GEFS MEANUPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO TREND MUCH SLOWER THAN THE MOREPROGRESSIVE CLUSTER HOWEVER. BACKGROUND FLOW/LARGE SCALEANTICYCLONIC SHEAR HAS TENDED TO FAVOR MORE OF A CUT OFF PATTERNRECENTLY AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUT MORE WEIGHT INSLOWER ECMWF/GEFS MEAN. Can someone explain what is meant by "background flow/anticyclonic shear"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 The 2" or so of snowpack around here is beginning to really look mangy the last few days. Hasn't been "refreshed" since the xmas eve dusting. Like having snow cover, but it won't break my heart if it melts away next week. Hit 29 early this morning, but temps drained into the teens later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Made it to at least 30. Temp still sitting at 30 so it's possible there was an intrahour bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 About 28° for today's high. Few flurries, especially early this morning. Overcast, except maybe one or two peaks of highly filtered sun for about 10 seconds! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Steel gray skies and flurries have been the rule the last 2 days here. Cold air (though it has spiked to 30F this evening) and white snowpack, some snowbanks dirty around the edges, and salt-soaked roads...it certainly looks and feels like January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Looking to me like the Saturday afternoon/evening time frame could deliver an inch or so of snow to much of northern IL, including Chicago. Models have indicated this little wave for awhile now. Latest NAM and RGEM both bring a respectable little wave of light snow through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 Looking to me like the Saturday afternoon/evening time frame could deliver an inch or so of snow to much of northern IL, including Chicago. Models have indicated this little wave for awhile now. Latest NAM and RGEM both bring a respectable little wave of light snow through the area. Light rates+temps in the 30's+ORD futility power=DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Nice avatar Cyclone! Was just about to post about that -SN event Saturday evening. 0z NAM delivers around an 1" or so and most models have been hinting at atleast a dusting to an 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Light rates+temps in the 30's+ORD futility power=DAB. lol. Some of it looks to fall after sunset, so maybe ORD can manage a tenth to crawl over the 1" seasonal threshold. A good dusting to an inch would be okay, but I'll be happy just to see some flakes flying again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Nice avatar Cyclone! Was just about to post about that -SN event Saturday evening. 0z NAM delivers around an 1" or so and most models have been hinting at atleast a dusting to an 1" Thanks. That map is courtesy of Ocean from back when he was still at DVN. Would love to see that modeled again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Looks like that snow this weekend would be completely at night (for IL). Roughly from 6pm Saturday - 6am Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Decent little vort with this thing. Maybe a few pockets of overachievement possible. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/6/wrfq.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 nice to have western michigan in the futility club Yeah unless the lake is active West Michigan and Chicago usually ( some exceptions ) have the same results. Most spots have between 6-9" for the season and yes that includes the heart of the Lake belts. Incredible stuff considering many of those areas should be at/around the 40" mark.. Been since 1952-53 since this area here has finished with below 30" on the season ( 27") and i imagine for them one has to go back to 1948-49. So far we are on pace with both. I suspect though we wont be talking futility for too much longer up this way. Gonna be very hard to do especially if we get that arctic chill late next week/beyond.. That will surely fire up the lake machine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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