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January 2013 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Wonder where we'll finish for the month. These wild swings/big daily departures coming up don't give much confidence in any calculations.

 

-0.4º right now...but the next three days, including today, will seal the deal for a 1º+ departure IMO.

 

You LAF folks need to put the snow totals back in your sigs :P

 

7.9" on the season. January has been abysmal. I'm just hoping to break into double digits when all is said and done. :D

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Up to 75 in Clinton Missouri, southeast of KC.  Vis shows a spring-like cumulus field bubbling up over central/southern MO.  30-40mph southwest surface wind gusts blasting along pushing that warmth northward.

 

Next 48 hours are going to be excellent for any weather fan...such extremes.

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Don't forget winter is still here... -51F last time I checked in Fairbanks, AK...  That air will come back to visit us in a few weeks ;)

Theres always a lag-time with cold in Canada and cold in the US later on. They were freezing in Dec if I recall, then in Jan during our arctic outbreak it was torching and raining in AK.

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And there it is, the first RAP map. Totally thought Hoosier would be the first, though I'm sure he'll be hot and heavy with posting 'em tomorrow. :maphot:

Whatever torches us the most. :devilsmiley:

If we get any breaks of sun tomorrow then I think we'd make a run into the upper 60s.

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It looks like, in terms of overall mean temperature, this January is going to finish up remarkably close to last January. As of this morning, our mean was -2.6C. With the upcoming torch, I could see that climbing to -1.6C. Last january's mean temperature was -1.7C. January 1950 saw a mean temperature of -1.8C at Toronto Pearson and this month has been remarkably similar to that one, temperature wise, with two big blowtorches, one on the 13th, the other around the 25th.

This January was colder than last January... If you average both months out, it was a comparable Dec-Jan overall. Not a good winter... February will determine which winter gets the nod for being less craptacular.

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Was out for a while enjoying the deep snow one more day.  John Dee map shows updated totals for this area today.  Still plenty deep and hoping we can retain half of this after the warm day tomorrow.  At least it will be short lived, but what happen to the day when deep snow could offset warming? :(

 

 

Ellsworth today:

 

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LOT goes with a FW for Tues...

 

THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR TUE/TUE NGT WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CORRECTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF
HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO BE ZEROING IN ON A
CENTRAL IL/IN STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST IL/NORTHERN IN.
THE COMBINATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER...PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO
APPROACH 1.5" WHICH ENSEMBLES SUGGEST IS 5 TO 6 SIGMA ABOVE
CLIMO...HAVE OPTED TO PROCEED WITH A FLOOD WATCH. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE THE STILL MOIST TOP FEW
INCHES OF SOIL. WHILE IT APPEARS THE TOP FEW INCHES OF SOIL WILL
THAW...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL THAW. WHICH WILL
FURTHER EXACERBATE THE RUNOFF OR PONDING CONCERNS. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS QPF TOTALS OF ARND 1.00" ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A LASALLE TO LAKE COUNTY IL LINE. EAST OF THIS LINE FORECAST
PRECIP TOTALS RAMP UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A FORD COUNTY IL TO
LAKE COUNTY IN. 

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