Stebo Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I believe the model QPF, we very much over performed on liquid yesterday...this airmass is for real At least we know one thing, the drought can be overcome with the right atmosphere and trajectories out of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 At least we know one thing, the drought can be overcome with the right atmosphere and trajectories out of the Gulf. Of course but the heavy rains are still going to be well east of the areas that need it much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Of course but the heavy rains are still going to be well east of the areas that need it much worse. Yes the plains are pretty much going to miss out, but we have chipped away areas to the East across the OV since the beginning of winter. Maybe we can continue to chip away going through the next couple of months. The more the drought is chipped away on it's Eastern fringes the better the severe prospects are going into Spring for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Of course but the heavy rains are still going to be well east of the areas that need it much worse. Yes the plains are pretty much going to miss out, but we have chipped away areas to the East across the OV since the beginning of winter. Maybe we can continue to chip away going through the next couple of months. The more the drought is chipped away on it's Eastern fringes the better the severe prospects are going into Spring for the region. I would rather see the drought ended to the west so we don't get blow torched all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I would rather see the drought ended to the west so we don't get blow torched all summer. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 agree Maybe we can have both, good severe in the Spring and the Summer not hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 ultra dense fog hugging the shore...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Yesterday was the 7th consecutive day that DTW saw measurable snowfall. Longest stretch since Feb 21-27, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Only freezing here (32F)... Temps suppose to get up to 39F... I see even MKE should see near 60F temps...not happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Imagine we'll see fog headlines for the lakeshore counties before too long here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Latest NAM breaks out a bunch of convective showers over N. IL later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Imagine we'll see fog headlines for the lakeshore counties before too long here. Yeah it was getting thick when I left work, probably down to 3/4SM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 massive area of 2-4" of liquid on the NAM...could really help the LM situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 #1 analog for this upcoming storm, via CIPS, is January 7-9, 2008 (based off the 0z GFS at 60 hours). Notorious for heavy rainfall, and then major flooding in parts of LOT's CWA. Of course that one rained on a substantial snow pack at the time, seriously complicating matters. All part of the wild 2007-08 winter. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=13427&source=2 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=pontiacfloodingjan2008 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=13432&source=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 #1 analog for this upcoming storm, via CIPS, is January 7-9, 2008 (based off the 0z GFS at 60 hours). Notorious for heavy rainfall, and then major flooding in parts of LOT's CWA. Of course that one rained on a substantial snow pack at the time, seriously complicating matters. All part of the wild 2007-08 winter. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=13427&source=2 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=pontiacfloodingjan2008 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=13432&source=2 Over under storm total QPF at ORD of 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Over under storm total QPF at ORD of 2" I like the over right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I like the over right now. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Over under storm total QPF at ORD of 2" Over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Very impressive temp rise last night considering the icing event just hours before. Rose all the way up to 48 here by around 3am. MLI made it to 49. Temps have fallen back down into the upper 30s now though as a brief period of weak CAA takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 A balmy 50 degrees in LAF right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 A balmy 50 degrees in LAF right now. Spring. Nice month in the LAF. Only thing missing was snow... -7 -15 -5 -6 0 +3 -2 +6 +12 +8 +25 +23 +2 -9 -5 +1 +3 +3 +18 +4 -13 -17 -10 -11 -4 -6 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It looks like, in terms of overall mean temperature, this January is going to finish up remarkably close to last January. As of this morning, our mean was -2.6C. With the upcoming torch, I could see that climbing to -1.6C. Last january's mean temperature was -1.7C. January 1950 saw a mean temperature of -1.8C at Toronto Pearson and this month has been remarkably similar to that one, temperature wise, with two big blowtorches, one on the 13th, the other around the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 massive area of 2-4" of liquid on the NAM...could really help the LM situation. Heard at work that the Army Corps of Engineers said that really no matter what happens with precip deficits this year, substantial improvement is unlikely for the next few years. But every little bit helps I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Spring. Nice month in the LAF. Only thing missing was snow... -7 -15 -5 -6 0 +3 -2 +6 +12 +8 +25 +23 +2 -9 -5 +1 +3 +3 +18 +4 -13 -17 -10 -11 -4 -6 +1 Wonder where we'll finish for the month. These wild swings/big daily departures coming up don't give much confidence in any calculations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I like the over right now. Was gonna take the cautious route and say under as there's only been 2 Jan days on record in Chicago with 2+" qpf. But http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=13427&source=2. Take that axis and shift it north, could go way over. So over is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Heard at work that the Army Corps of Engineers said that really no matter what happens with precip deficits this year, substantial improvement is unlikely for the next few years. But every little bit helps I'm sure. kind of depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Pretty damn impressive for a late morning in January. Dews are into the 60s as far north as central Missouri as well. This next system is gonna be amped.. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/571/jan28.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 As we hit the half-way mark of winter I was just thinking...no matter what you like, this winter in SE MI has had a little bit of something for EVERYBODY, but not enough of any one thing to give someone their preferred winter. ~The snowcover hounds got their fix when snow covered the ground Dec 21-Jan 11, no grass tips Dec 26-Jan 9 ~The 6"+ snowstorm group got a good storm (Dec 26) ~Some lake effect snuck hit the area Jan 21-23 ~The high snow-rates people got theirs Jan 27 ~The arctic blast group got to freeze Jan 21-25 ~The torch mongers got some torches (Dec 1-4, Jan 11-13, Jan 29) ~Those who like to see roller coasters got theirs (last 2 weeks of Jan feature temps from -20F to +20F departure, overperforming snow events...and we will go from well below normal temps to near record high to back to well below normal all this week) What will the 2nd half bring...stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Over under storm total QPF at ORD of 2" Over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 kind of depressing. It is. Another reason to hope for a not as hot summer. A summer like last year would probably undo any minor improvements with extra evaporation and increased water use by the cities/towns around the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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