Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 The funny thing is that 1967 has been showing up as a pattern analog. It looks like we're about to have a severe threat unseasonably far north just like January of that year, but the winter storm part may not be quite the same. 1967 is the new 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 It's hard to tell because of the precip being for the previous 6 hours but the best may actually be northwest of there. LAF special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 IWX is liking the heavier rainfalls modeled, they've already issued areal flood watches for Tuesday/Wednesday: TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 yeah nam hoses us both. never a fan of these setups but someone could score a decent hit with the new snow standards. 18z GFS kinda looks like the December 20th storm for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 18z GFS kinda looks like the December 20th storm for you. A very poor man's version, but if a storm wraps up like that, potential is there for a tad more moisture to be funneled in. The Gulf of Mexico should be wide open if convection on the warm side doesn't ruin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 A very poor man's version, but if a storm wraps up like that, potential is there for a tad more moisture to be funneled in. The Gulf of Mexico should be wide open if convection on the warm side doesn't ruin it. Please no. No more lows taking that track anymore. That would be death to my amazing lake effect snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Had a wintry weekend, from Fridays snow, to Saturdays snowfest in Frankenmuth, to sledding earlier today. Frankenmuth snowfest pics. Then the pic of the snowboard was taken last night to show how rumply the snow is from settling all day, the ripples owing to the extremely fluffy consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Nice pictures...especially the sunset picture. My wife and I were over in eastern Michigan this weekend. We had even talked about going to Frankenmuth, and didn't even know that was going on. We should have gone! It looks like you had a great time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Nice pictures...especially the sunset picture. My wife and I were over in eastern Michigan this weekend. We had even talked about going to Frankenmuth, and didn't even know that was going on. We should have gone! It looks like you had a great time. It was fun. LOL...so you come to SE MI when we had a 2-4" snowcover (depending where you were) and you had 12-18". But yet after Christmas when we had 6-8" and you had like 1" you stayed home. You did that backwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It was fun. LOL...so you come to SE MI when we had a 2-4" snowcover (depending where you were) and you had 12-18". But yet after Christmas when we had 6-8" and you had like 1" you stayed home. You did that backwards It was fun. LOL...so you come to SE MI when we had a 2-4" snowcover (depending where you were) and you had 12-18". But yet after Christmas when we had 6-8" and you had like 1" you stayed home. You did that backwards Hahaha...my wife said the same thing...but my bro was flying in for a meeting and we wanted to see him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 all this rain should help with drought conditions east of the Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Wish I could take all the rain to come for Indiana, and dump it out west. Don't really need it here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Not sure how much rain will benefit with the frozen ground. There was lots of standing water around even with light rates. Think much of it probably just ran off. EDIT: MLI picked up 0.51" today, and DVN had 0.26". My rain gauge froze up so not sure how much fell, but guessing close to a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Got 0.30" of freezing rain today. Nothing can soak in so it's pretty much all sitting in puddles on the pavement and in the grass. Temp has steadily risen tonight and is now 38. Latest models are surging mid 50s temps all the way up to Cedar Rapids by Tuesday morning. The GFS was lagging behind, but the 00z has Iowa City up to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The rain can help raise the Mississippi and it's tributaries. Barge traffic has been slowed with the low water levels. Snow Freak those pictures are all really good. I really like the snow sculpture with the bear and the guy cooking dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Got 0.30" of freezing rain today. Nothing can soak in so it's pretty much all sitting in puddles on the pavement and in the grass. Temp has steadily risen tonight and is now 38. Latest models are surging mid 50s temps all the way up to Cedar Rapids by Tuesday morning. The GFS was lagging behind, but the 00z has Iowa City up to 60. Very impressive if this pans out. Deep into the 60s here. MLI's all-time Jan record is 69, but this wouldn't be too far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The rain can help raise the Mississippi and it's tributaries. Barge traffic has been slowed with the low water levels. Good point. Was thinking of moisture more from an agriculture point of view, but you're right. Any additional runoff into area tributaries is a step in the right direction for the extremely low river levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 awesome pics of the snow fest MSF! Perfect weather for the whole fest also. Must be quite the chore but I think it would be fun packing all the man made snow in to those huge block molds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 nice summer sleeping weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 awesome pics of the snow fest MSF! Perfect weather for the whole fest also. Must be quite the chore but I think it would be fun packing all the man made snow in to those huge block molds. thanks. It was awesome! Funny thing I think there was actually a tiny bit more snow at home, but it didnt matter...PERFECT to see the fresh real snow and then the massive sculptures of manmade snow. (except that the drive took me 3.5 hours instead of 1.5...my own fault for having to drive through metro Detroit during Friday rush hour in moderate snow lol). Ive seen many events with ice scupltures, but never saw anything like this, I definitely recommend it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Temp has now reached 40. Pretty impressive WAA to say the least. The icy landscape is a distant memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Guidance is in agreement with showing 60+ temps for Tuesday, with GFS MOS consistent in showing mid-60's. The record for the date is 59 (1914). Here's a list of all-time January record highs... 67 - 25/195065 - 1/187665 - 7/200865 - 23/190965 - 24/196765 - 31/198964 - 4/199763 - 8/196563 - 20/1906 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Guidance is in agreement with showing 60+ temps for Tuesday, with GFS MOS consistent in showing mid-60's. The record for the date is 59 (1914). Here's a list of all-time January record highs... 67 - 25/1950 65 - 1/1876 65 - 7/2008 65 - 23/1909 65 - 24/1967 65 - 31/1989 64 - 4/1997 63 - 8/1965 63 - 20/1906 A couple of notable severe weather days there on the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Up to 41 and still climbing. MLI/DVN both up to 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 A couple of notable severe weather days there on the list. Indeed I think the LAF area was near 70 on January 1, 1876. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Last evenings training storms really over performed...tons of standing water and some minor street flooding here in the city. Easily over 1". LOTs discussion is impressive with another two rounds of very heavy rain likely. A much needed drought buster. ABSOLUTELY FASCINATING WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 48HOURS AS DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAPLOWS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY BRINGING A WIDE VARIETY OF EXTREMEWEATHER. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IS MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST ANDALLOWING FOR DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.WITH LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ANDNW CARIBBEAN. THIS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TRANSPORTING UNSEASONABLYMOIST AIR NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEP TROUGH WITH 00Z RAOB DATASUNDAY EVENING SHOWING PWATS OF 200-300% OF NORMAL FROM TEXAS NORTHTO NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREATLAKES REGION TODAY AND ALLOW FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT ACROSS THECWA SETTING UP A RESPECTABLE TEMP GRADIENT. COULD SEE A COUPLE OFSHOWERS SE COUNTIES TODAY BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY DRY WEATHERTODAY...THOUGH AS FRONT LIES DOWN ACROSS CWA COULD SEE FOG REDEVELOPALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS TRIES TO SEEPSOUTH INTO THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS. FOG PROBLEM COULD BECOMEBIGGER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...AS WE LOSE THE SUNAND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS PULLING CHILLY MARINE AIR INTO THE"SOUPY" 40F DEW POINTS. SUSPECT A DENSE FOG ADV WILL BE NEEDED ATSOME POINT IN TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WILL LET LATERSHIFTS HANDLE THAT AS LOCATION AND TIMING OF FOG BECOMES CLEARER.SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO RIDE THE BROAD SW FLOW INTO THE REGIONTONIGHT WITH 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCEISENTROPIC ASCENT AS WELL AS RESULT IN FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ELEVATEDINSTABILITY BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. NORTHERNILLINOIS PROGGED TO END UP IN THE CONVERGENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OFTHE LOW LEVEL JET WITH MUCAPE NEARING 1000J/KG AND STRONG QPFSIGNAL IN THE MODELS ALL POINTING TOWARD HIGH POTENTIAL FORTHUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLY EVEN ALOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPING. HAVE BUMPED UP QPF AND POPS TOACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE WITHTHIS WAVE. SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP COVERAGE MUCH OF THE DAYTUESDAY BEFORE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE LEADS TO THUNDERSTORMINITIATION TO OUR WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO OUR CWA. WHILE PROGGED LAPSERATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SFC DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50SWOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THAT AND ALLOW FOR WEAK SURFACEBASED INSTABILITY TO FORM. EVEN WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...THEPRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING FORCING SUGGESTS THATTHERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOONAND EVENING IN THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IF TEMPS/DEW POINTS ANDRESULTANT END UP AS HIGH OR HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.OF GREATER CONCERN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS THE HEAVYRAINFALL POTENTIAL. STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGHLYAMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN BACKING LOW AND MIDLEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOWPROGGED TO BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONT. PWAT VALUES AREPROGGED TO REACH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR JANUARY...IN FACTPWATS GETTING UP OVER 1.25 INCHES. TO PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE HOWSIGNIFICANT THAT VALUE IS...IT WOULD BE A NORMAL VALUE FOR JULY AND2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR APRIL. THE LATE SPRING LEVELMOISTURE VALUES COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FROM A SLOW MOVINGFRONT REALLY SCREAMS MAJOR RECORD BREAKING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.NOT SURPRISINGLY 2 OF THE TOP ANALOGS ON THE CIPS PAGE ARE OF RECENTDEVASTATING JANUARY FLOODS IN THE REGION (JAN 2008 AND JAN 2005).STRONG CONSIDERED HOISTING A FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OFTHE CWA...BUT WITH BRUNT OF THE EVENT 4TH PERIOD AND MODEL GUIDANCESLOWING THE TROUGH AND THUS SHIFTING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FARTHERWEST DECIDED TO PUNT THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE TO THE DAY SHIFT WHENTHEY CAN BETTER REFINE HOW FAR NORTHWEST TO GO WITH THE HEADLINE. INTHE MEANTIME WILL FRESHEN UP AND REISSUE THE ESF THIS MORNING. Our new climo is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Last evenings training storms really over performed...tons of standing water and some minor street flooding here in the city. Easily over 1". LOTs discussion is impressive with another two rounds of very heavy rain likely. A much needed drought buster. Our new climo is awful PWATs over 1.25 is downright incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I find the top two CIPS analogs being January floods within the last decade pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I find the top two CIPS analogs being January floods within the last decade pretty incredible. Yeah that is also equally incredible, the NAM and GFS are actually closer to 1.50" for PWAT over Central IL/IN. With the soil basically rock hard, if some of the precip amounts are realized, could be a pretty significant flood issue. Some of the individual SREF models are pushing 2-4" for parts of IL/IN/MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I believe the model QPF, we very much over performed on liquid yesterday...this airmass is for real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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