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January 2013 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Something that hasn't been mentioned is that this air will be passing over an expansive area of D2-D4 drought conditions on the way in. It might not make much difference given that it's the dead of winter but since airmasses of this origin are typically bone dry to begin with I wonder if it may add a little extra oomph and dry it out even more. Or lack of snowcover could lead to steeper low level lapse rates and tap into the drier air aloft?

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Euro also has something wintry D6.  The basic surface evolution looks more like the GFS than the GGEM.

 

Yep fairly decent amounts too probably in the .4-.6" range. Not the biggest storm in the world but with good ratios probably several inches of snow for parts of the region.

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Either that or 1/10/82 when it was -27 at RFD (all time record low there) and -26 at ORD.

Yeah...a brutal air mass.  Then, it was reinforced a week later, although a bit further east.  If you get a chance, take a look at a map of 850 mb temps on 1/17/82.  If I remember correctly, a -45C 850 mb contour actually shows up in central Canada...just unbelievable.

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Temp has shot up into the low 50s again.  These torch days seem to nearly always outperform even the most aggressive forecasts.

Looks like the GFS overdid the cloud cover today, lots of sun breaking through between the frontogenetic cloud bands. Optimal position in relation to the cyclone off to the north for warm air advection also.

 

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Made it to 49 so far.  Was stuck under mid-level clouds most of the day.  Only a few small piles left in a few areas.  Point forecast has our wind chills dropping to nearly -10 by early tomorrow.  The main cold front just now entering MSP area, so we should remain relatively mild for another 6-8hrs.

 

EDIT:  Just hit 50.

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Yeah...a brutal air mass. Then, it was reinforced a week later, although a bit further east. If you get a chance, take a look at a map of 850 mb temps on 1/17/82. If I remember correctly, a -45C 850 mb contour actually shows up in central Canada...just unbelievable.

Hoosier asked last night about the date of the -32C 850 temp over the LOT CWA. It was actually on 1/18/1994 when ORD had a split of -11/-21. 1/20/85 was a close second, with -31C at 850mb.

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