WestMichigan Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Well, most of this morning's snow has melted. Time to hibernate inside until tomorrow night when the arctic front comes and lake effect begins. What is your forecast up there? It looks like 5 or 6 inches are possible around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Nice heavy snow now falling. 4.7" thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 48F here now...like summer out there So that means its 75F in Saukville Back yard is a big puddle from the snow melt. Might have -10F next week with no snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 What is your forecast up there? It looks like 5 or 6 inches are possible around here.It is looking like 5 to 9 inches by Sunday night with more Monday and Tuesday. A couple people at work were saying they heard 12 to 15 inches.Still have some snow in spots from the snow earlier today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Gusted up to 41mph today. Made it to 47. Most of the snow gone for Iowa and other areas south of WI/MI. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/820/nosnow.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Love those hi-res maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Cedar Rapids hit 53 today. I figured the local mets were too conservative with the highs and they were(mid to upper 40s). A couple days ago one local station still had 39 for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Josh, I think we are in a 1932-1935 type period now.... Disaster, thankfully it will end eventually. haha its amazing what a week of bare ground does to long term memory We are not even in the same ballpark LOL. Technically last January wasnt that bad in total snowfall. And after a closer to seasonal 1936, we had a very low snow 1937-1938. JAN......Snow....1"+ snwcvr dys....Peak Snow Dpth...Mean temp 1932.......0.9"..........0...........T..........36.7F 1933.......0.4"..........0...........T..........34.7F 1934.......6.0"..........8...........3".........30.0F 1935.......1.4"..........4...........1".........24.8F 1936.....10.1"........23...........4".........21.7F 1937.......4.4"..........8...........3".........29.7F 1938.......4.4"........13...........2".........24.3F ***** 2007.......6.4"........11...........3".........29.6F 2008.....13.8"........15...........4".........28.9F 2009.....25.2"........25.........14".........17.3F 2010.......8.9"........13...........5".........25.0F 2011.....17.9"........26...........7".........21.9F 2012.......9.3"........10...........3".........30.7F 2013.......0.6"+......10+.........6".........??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 At least someone's getting snow today! Low over achieved this morning at 10°. Up to 34 37° now. GGEM showing that arctic front snow still.. It would be great if Toronto could see an inch or so of snow from the arctic front to replace what we will lose tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 It would be great if Toronto could see an inch or so of snow from the arctic front to replace what we will lose tomorrow. I think Ontario has a good shot at seeing snow from the front itself. Quite unlikely this far back to the west. Hit 43° today. 33° temperature spread today! Still had some sleet and ice frozen the ground in the shade late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Regarding below zero temps in Chicago... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1207 PM CST THU JAN 17 2013 /107 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013 LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY STRONG BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL COME BARRELING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS TO HIT CHICAGO SINCE THE BIG COLD SNAP BACK AROUND FEBRUARY 10TH 2011 WHEN THE LOW TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO -9 OFFICIALLY IN CHICAGO. WHILE CURRENT FORECASTS ARE NOT THAT COLD...THEY DO SUGGEST LOWS COULD APPROACH ZERO IN CHICAGO. THE PROSPECTS OF ANY MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEAR VERY LOW...SO JUST HOW UNUSUAL WOULD IT BE FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BELOW ZERO IN CHICAGO WITHOUT ANY SNOW COVER? BETWEEN 1960 AND 2010 THERE HAVE BEEN 469 DAYS THAT HAVE RECORDED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AT CHICAGO O`HARE...OF WHICH ONLY 16 HAVE OCCURRED WITH AN OFFICIAL SNOW DEPTH OF ZERO. THERE WERE 45 DAYS WITH JUST A TRACE OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT O`HARE...WHICH MEANS ONLY ABOUT 3 PERCENT OF ALL SUBZERO DAYS IN THAT 50 YEAR PERIOD OCCURRED WITHOUT ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND AT O`HARE AND ONLY ABOUT 13 PERCENT WITH ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. WHILE SNOW ON THE GROUND AT A GIVEN REPORTING STATION OBVIOUSLY HAS A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...EVEN SNOW COVER UPSTREAM WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUBZERO TEMPERATURES. OF THE 17 DAYS THAT O`HARE SAW SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WITH NO SNOW ON THE GROUND...THE MAJORITY OF THEM (10) ROCKFORD HAD AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND ONLY 3 OF THOSE 17 DAYS DID MADISON WISCONSIN NOT HAVE AT LEAST 5 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN FACT...5 OF THE DAYS MADISON ACTUALLY HAD 10 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ON THE GROUND...SO THE UPSTREAM SNOW COVER LIKELY HELPED ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO. CURRENTLY THERE IS MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER UPSTREAM WITH NO SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND OFFICIALLY IN ROCKFORD AND ONLY AN INCH ON THE GROUND IN MADISON WISCONSIN. ONE OF THE TOOLS FORECASTERS COMMONLY USE TO FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB (AROUND 5000FT ABOVE THE GROUND). NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...LOOKING BACK AT THE APPROXIMATE 850MB TEMPERATURES DURING DAYS WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES AND NO SNOW COVER AT O`HARE...IT TOOK COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE TO PRODUCE SUBZERO LOWS THAN IT DOES WHEN THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. FOR NON-SNOW COVER SUBZERO DAYS THE AVERAGE 850MB TEMPERATURE WAS AROUND -21C AND AS COLD AS -29C...WHILE THE AVERAGE 850MB TEMPERATURE FOR ALL SUBZERO DAYS IN LATE JANUARY IS -17C. WHILE IT IS EXTREMELY RARE TO SEE SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WITHOUT ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND IN CHICAGO...HISTORY SHOWS IT HAS HAPPENED AND IT CAN HAPPEN AGAIN. CERTAINLY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER HERE AND UPSTREAM WILL MAKE THE TASK OF GETTING BELOW ZERO OFFICIALLY IN CHICAGO MUCH HARDER THAN IT WOULD BE IF THERE WAS A BIG SNOW PACK UPSTREAM. $$ IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Might get a cheap midnight high on Monday to screw up the departure unless this front speeds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Seems to be subtle cooling trends on recent model runs. 00z NAM/GFS bring 850 mb temps of -25C to -27C into ORD and -23C to -25C here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Gusts to 45 tomorrow... going to be nasty ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I noticed on my phone app that there wasa "freezing spray warning" issued for Lake Michigan by the NWS. Don't think I've ever heard of anything like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Seems to be subtle cooling trends on recent model runs. 00z NAM/GFS bring 850 mb temps of -25C to -27C into ORD and -23C to -25C here. If that verifies, very impressive for around here. We did some stats using the NARR at the office, the coldest 850 temp observed over nrn IL from 1979-2010 was -32. If there's gonna be an airmass that gets below 0 at ORD even without snowpack, this might be it. But the stats Gino put together show it'll still be tough since nearby upstream areas won't have a snowpack either. Our afternoon forecast went with +1 for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 If that verifies, very impressive for around here. We did some stats using the NARR at the office, the coldest 850 temp observed over nrn IL from 1979-2010 was -32. If there's gonna be an airmass that gets below 0 at ORD even without snowpack, this might be it. But the stats Gino put together show it'll still be tough since nearby upstream areas won't have a snowpack either. Our afternoon forecast went with +1 for ORD. Do you know the 3 dates that ORD went below zero (with no snow) and Madison had less than 5" on the ground? Would be interesting to look at those setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Still 41 as we approach midnight. May make a run at 50 tomorrow before the front hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Do you know the 3 dates that ORD went below zero (with no snow) and Madison had less than 5" on the ground? Would be interesting to look at those setups. I don't know them offhand but I should be able to look them up in the morning. Thankfully it's only 50 yrs of data. If I get the chance I'll try to put together a composite mean for those 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I don't know them offhand but I should be able to look them up in the morning. Thankfully it's only 50 yrs of data. If I get the chance I'll try to put together a composite mean for those 3 days. Sounds good. I'm guessing that -32C you mentioned was probably in January 1985? Those maps from the 19th-20th are some of the craziest maps I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Forecast high was bumped up to 47° tomorrow. Can hear the wind gusts outside easily this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 MEX spitting out -2 here Tuesday morning. Think that is the first piece of guidance to actually show below zero temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Sounds good. I'm guessing that -32C you mentioned was probably in January 1985? Those maps from the 19th-20th are some of the craziest maps I've ever seen. Either that or 1/10/82 when it was -27 at RFD (all time record low there) and -26 at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Sounds good. I'm guessing that -32C you mentioned was probably in January 1985? Those maps from the 19th-20th are some of the craziest maps I've ever seen. Only time i ever saw OES when i lived at the coast was during that Arctic outbreak. That was some brutal cold. I had just moved to the coast and thought i had moved to the Arctic coast instead. lol Missed nearly a week of school between the brutal cold temps ( yes they closed school there for the cold ) and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 00z MEX mos roundup for Tue morning. MI/OH don't get posted since they will be modified due to being downstream of the Lakes. : LSE: -16 MSN: -12 GRB: -14 MKE: -7 MLI: -3 RFD: -8 ORD: -5 LAF: -2 IND: 0 FWA: 0 STL: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GGEM has a nice swath of snow around D6 with a juicy clipper. The GFS jackpots Cincy and the OV with a southern slider. Completely different set-ups, but same end product. Maybe the next time frame to watch, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 FWIW, 00z Gfs is much more aggressive with cold air next weekend. Shows major snow event for OV. at 156-168 hrs. I'm sure this will change somewhat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 00z MEX mos roundup for Tue morning. MI/OH don't get posted since they will be modified due to being downstream of the Lakes. : LSE: -16 MSN: -12 GRB: -14 MKE: -7 MLI: -3 RFD: -8 ORD: -5 LAF: -2 IND: 0 FWA: 0 STL: 6 I wonder if that could help strengthen the LES in these parts via a stronger convergence zone? Could ofcourse kill flake size as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Only time i ever saw OES when i lived at the coast was during that Arctic outbreak. That was some brutal cold. I had just moved to the coast and thought i had moved to the Arctic coast instead. lol Missed nearly a week of school between the brutal cold temps ( yes they closed school there for the cold ) and snow. Well, something interesting usually happens whenever the PV bodily plunges into the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 ? GGEM has a nice swath of snow around D6 with a juicy clipper. The GFS jackpots Cincy and the OV with a southern slider. C?ompletely different set-ups, but same end product. Maybe the next time frame to watch, at least. Ha! Does anyone remember what happened 35 years ago to the days (25-26th) when a juicy clipper hooked up with a southern slider? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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