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January 2013 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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We're starting to get a better picture of the next week or so...storm 1 starting tomorrow is a soaker and storm 2 will also be a soaker (possible light mix ribbon on the back side). Storm 3 is going to be the one to watch for snow...hopefully we start to see some better agreement re: timing issues.

12z GFS is trending even less impressive than 6z. This pattern change is shaping up to be a total dud for all other than rain fans. cold shot is going to be shunted hard off to the north east.

This trend of the weakening cold air reared its ugly head yesterday. It continues to be pushed further north while the prospects for a continued flood of PAC air get higher. Not all is lost given its only mid Met Winter. Plenty of time I guess.

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I'm losing hope in January

As am I. The pattern revealed itself around Christmas/New Years. Threats of severe cold on the models only to have them back off. They had a story on the local news about how the ice is still too thin on Georgian Bay for ice fishers. I think they may be in for their second poor year in a row as may be the snowmobilers. Sure, there's a lot of snow at the moment in many places, but that will soon. dissapear after we reach the upper 40s/low 50s this week.

We'll see what the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS have to offer. It's odd that the Euro weeklies flipped to cold, as per Brett Anderson, and just as they do that, the models flip to a warmer solution.

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the 12z euro should tell us whether the flip on the models regarding the LR, starting after the 12z runs yesterday, is more than a flip or becomes a flop.

Very disturbing trends for all those counting on a second half of January winter wonderland to arrive.

On that note, still spotty areas of snow here....should be back to grass and mud by tomorrow evening. We've had a solid snowcover since Dec. 26th, pretty impressive for these parts....thus no complaining.

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the 12z euro should tell us whether the flip on the models regarding the LR, starting after the 12z runs yesterday, is more than a flip or becomes a flop.Very disturbing trends for all those counting on a second half of January winter wonderland to arrive.On that note, still spotty areas of snow here....should be back to grass and mud by tomorrow evening. We've had a solid snowcover since Dec. 26th, pretty impressive for these parts....thus no complaining.

I was hoping this could turn out like 1995 or 2005, both of which saw a big January thaw then the arrival of arctic conditions.

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the 12z euro should tell us whether the flip on the models regarding the LR, starting after the 12z runs yesterday, is more than a flip or becomes a flop.Very disturbing trends for all those counting on a second half of January winter wonderland to arrive.On that note, still spotty areas of snow here....should be back to grass and mud by tomorrow evening. We've had a solid snowcover since Dec. 26th, pretty impressive for these parts....thus no complaining.

It would certainly be disappointing to have so many indices support the idea of a colder pattern but it still won't happen. A product of a warming world, maybe, or just plain bad luck with the pattern. The change on the models has been pretty rapid and dramatic, though, the last few days.

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It would certainly be disappointing to have so many indices support the idea of a colder pattern but it still won't happen. A product of a warming world, maybe, or just plain bad luck with the pattern. The change on the models has been pretty rapid and dramatic, though, the last few days.

I agree, although it seems that much of Asia is really cold this year. North America seems to be having a tough time getting a sustained cold pattern.

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Wow on the 12z GFS...  Precip fail (now showing less then a tenth of an inch..been watching this for days now..keeps cutting precip)...and fail on the temps next week.  Just a casual no nothing cool down...  Saukville must be smiling from ear to ear... 

 

I don't expect anything of any significance in the next week... we should keep our ice, but it could be iffy in spots.  Another thing is the snow on top of the ice may melt, when it refreezes it could be ugly (slippery). 

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The models are struggling I think with this SSW event and polar vortex split. I can't see how we can escape a prolonged cold period with blocking across the pole and a +PNA. Now we have the primary chunk of the PV in Canada. The MJO isn't the greatest, but that should at least set us in a stormy wintry pattern across part of the subforum.

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Snow melt here is very slow.  I only had 4.5 inches in my yard to begin with, but there are still a few left.  It's going to take all week to melt off most of this very wet snowpack.  I wouldn't be surprised if I still have at least an inch in my yard when the cold front arrives Friday night.  Snowless locations south of Iowa City are seeing 40s and 50s, while we're stuck in the upper 30s.

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