Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Hmm... lots of storm action.... This should keep many posters tuned in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 We're starting to get a better picture of the next week or so...storm 1 starting tomorrow is a soaker and storm 2 will also be a soaker (possible light mix ribbon on the back side). Storm 3 is going to be the one to watch for snow...hopefully we start to see some better agreement re: timing issues. 12z GFS is trending even less impressive than 6z. This pattern change is shaping up to be a total dud for all other than rain fans. cold shot is going to be shunted hard off to the north east. This trend of the weakening cold air reared its ugly head yesterday. It continues to be pushed further north while the prospects for a continued flood of PAC air get higher. Not all is lost given its only mid Met Winter. Plenty of time I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 the cold is still there lurking just north...we're finding just about every exotic way to keep it from coming down at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'm losing hope in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'm losing hope in January As am I. The pattern revealed itself around Christmas/New Years. Threats of severe cold on the models only to have them back off. They had a story on the local news about how the ice is still too thin on Georgian Bay for ice fishers. I think they may be in for their second poor year in a row as may be the snowmobilers. Sure, there's a lot of snow at the moment in many places, but that will soon. dissapear after we reach the upper 40s/low 50s this week. We'll see what the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS have to offer. It's odd that the Euro weeklies flipped to cold, as per Brett Anderson, and just as they do that, the models flip to a warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 the 12z euro should tell us whether the flip on the models regarding the LR, starting after the 12z runs yesterday, is more than a flip or becomes a flop. Very disturbing trends for all those counting on a second half of January winter wonderland to arrive. On that note, still spotty areas of snow here....should be back to grass and mud by tomorrow evening. We've had a solid snowcover since Dec. 26th, pretty impressive for these parts....thus no complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 the 12z euro should tell us whether the flip on the models regarding the LR, starting after the 12z runs yesterday, is more than a flip or becomes a flop.Very disturbing trends for all those counting on a second half of January winter wonderland to arrive.On that note, still spotty areas of snow here....should be back to grass and mud by tomorrow evening. We've had a solid snowcover since Dec. 26th, pretty impressive for these parts....thus no complaining. I was hoping this could turn out like 1995 or 2005, both of which saw a big January thaw then the arrival of arctic conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 the 12z euro should tell us whether the flip on the models regarding the LR, starting after the 12z runs yesterday, is more than a flip or becomes a flop.Very disturbing trends for all those counting on a second half of January winter wonderland to arrive.On that note, still spotty areas of snow here....should be back to grass and mud by tomorrow evening. We've had a solid snowcover since Dec. 26th, pretty impressive for these parts....thus no complaining. It would certainly be disappointing to have so many indices support the idea of a colder pattern but it still won't happen. A product of a warming world, maybe, or just plain bad luck with the pattern. The change on the models has been pretty rapid and dramatic, though, the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 It would certainly be disappointing to have so many indices support the idea of a colder pattern but it still won't happen. A product of a warming world, maybe, or just plain bad luck with the pattern. The change on the models has been pretty rapid and dramatic, though, the last few days. I agree, although it seems that much of Asia is really cold this year. North America seems to be having a tough time getting a sustained cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 What a fail. Lets see if ole euro follows the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I agree, although it seems that much of Asia is really cold this year. North America seems to be having a tough time getting a sustained cold pattern. Yep, the cold has been there, it's just been extremely difficult to get anything brutal into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Wow on the 12z GFS... Precip fail (now showing less then a tenth of an inch..been watching this for days now..keeps cutting precip)...and fail on the temps next week. Just a casual no nothing cool down... Saukville must be smiling from ear to ear... I don't expect anything of any significance in the next week... we should keep our ice, but it could be iffy in spots. Another thing is the snow on top of the ice may melt, when it refreezes it could be ugly (slippery). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 12z euro has a low end advisory snowfall for Chicago. Sunday event. Close to .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The models are struggling I think with this SSW event and polar vortex split. I can't see how we can escape a prolonged cold period with blocking across the pole and a +PNA. Now we have the primary chunk of the PV in Canada. The MJO isn't the greatest, but that should at least set us in a stormy wintry pattern across part of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 12z euro has a low end advisory snowfall for Chicago. Sunday event. Close to .25 That looks to be the most likely possible time for decent snowfall, Sunday night into Monday morning on the backside of a mostly wet low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 12z euro has a low end advisory snowfall for Chicago. Sunday event. Close to .25 Pushing it, although maybe advisory worthy considering this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 12z euro has a low end advisory snowfall for Chicago. Sunday event. Close to .25 Good to hear. The 00z had no precip for us. I am guessing it trended toward what the GFS has been showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Good to hear. The 00z had no precip for us. I am guessing it trended toward what the GFS has been showing? Yep, and some of the GFS Ensembles back this up and are more amped/NW. I'll take a backside inch or two for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yep, and some of the GFS Ensembles back this up and are more amped/NW. I'll take a backside inch or two for sure. As would I, especially with extended range looking less than promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yep, and some of the GFS Ensembles back this up and are more amped/NW. I'll take a backside inch or two for sure. this is what we're talking about...so yeah. Overperforming at 50 downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 48 here...flew past MOS and 2m projections by 6-9 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 48 here...flew past MOS and 2m projections by 6-9 degrees. Up to 51 downtown...feels pretty nice. Any snow left down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 42 here, pretty gusty west winds as well. Midway is up to 50 at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Up to 51 downtown...feels pretty nice. Any snow left down there? Gone outside of some bigger piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Interesting to see substantially lower dewpoints around NE IL compared to surrounding areas. I have been noticing it at other times as well. I wonder if dry ground/lack of snow are big reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 At this point there's not much to say except that I don't trust any of the models beyond 84 hours as far as I can throw them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Snow melt here is very slow. I only had 4.5 inches in my yard to begin with, but there are still a few left. It's going to take all week to melt off most of this very wet snowpack. I wouldn't be surprised if I still have at least an inch in my yard when the cold front arrives Friday night. Snowless locations south of Iowa City are seeing 40s and 50s, while we're stuck in the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 SW winds gusting to 35-40mph, full sunshine, and temps soaring to the upper 40s has been an absolute snow-killer today. 2-3" of snow remain in the shade and just a T in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Lotsa holes in the snow pack developing over the last several days. Looks pretty dingy out there. Failing a nice 4-8" to refresh everything, a complete annihilation due to the warmth will have to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Pushing it, although maybe advisory worthy considering this winter. weird little setup with thickness values pretty high aloft. But Euro produces a wide 3-6" area combined with both little waves that ride on up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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