Stebo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 In my observations from reading this board, Stebo seems a bit pompous and just puts others down if he doesn't like their posts. It is easier to be alright wih the winter when one's region has gotten winter. I don't understand why some on this board expect Chicagoans and West Michiganders to be all daisies with this winter. It makes sense that we would be skeptical of anything good in terms of snowfall when really, nothing, has worked out. Makes sense to me...but some think you HAVE TO be positive. I decided to take my rants over to the "complaint thread" and some posters came over and act annoyed to read it. Then don't go there to read it. Not everybody has to be "all roses"! Lol your observations are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Sudden stratospheric warming in full swing, associated cold shot on long range GFS is impressive with 850 temps bottoming out at -27 C over Madison. I'm expecting the models to change quite a bit before the cold shot happens though, things become quite chaotic for numerical forecasting as the polar vortex falls apart. Only thing guaranteed now is we will be seeing some Arctic air as the polar vortex initially breaks apart, followed by warmer conditions from lack of polar air, and then things will slowly get cooler as the polar vortex rebuilds. The 18Z GFS has quite a warm up in the long range. I know it will change, but I don't understand what these models pick up on that can cause such drastic changes in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Lol your observations are off. Ok. Just personal experience... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 In my observations from reading this board, Stebo seems a bit pompous and just puts others down if he doesn't like their posts. It is easier to be alright wih the winter when one's region has gotten winter. I don't understand why some on this board expect Chicagoans and West Michiganders to be all daisies with this winter. It makes sense that we would be skeptical of anything good in terms of snowfall when really, nothing, has worked out. Makes sense to me...but some think you HAVE TO be positive. I decided to take my rants over to the "complaint thread" and some posters came over and act annoyed to read it. Then don't go there to read it. Not everybody has to be "all roses"! Are you really going to call someone out like that in this thread. Yikes. Class up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 +1 5 ppd? Nah no one needs to be 5 ppd for that, blackrock just needs to be a bit more polite when it comes to things. I have an open inbox if he needs to discuss things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Nah no one needs to be 5 ppd for that, blackrock just needs to be a bit more polite when it comes to things. I have an open inbox if he needs to discuss things.5 ppd? What does that mean?Where was this conversation? You know, I will call you out. It is alright for you to have some private convo with others and Schaumburg about me, and then you post a comment that he makes about me about being "ppd"d. Really? Wow. Yeah, I am kind of ticked when you go on the complaint thread and make fun of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 5 ppd? What does that mean? Where was this conversation? 5posts per day and the conversation is not made until you send me a PM, that is if you'd like to discuss things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 5 ppd? What does that mean? Where was this conversation? You know, I will call you out. It is alright for you to have some private convo with others and Schaumburg about me, and then you post a comment that he makes about me about being "ppd"d. Really? Wow. Yeah, I am kind of ticked when you go on the complaint thread and make fun of me. FYI, this was not a private message. I had posted that here in this thread, thought better of it, and deleted it. Lightning fast stebo quoted it in between those two actions. But anyway, cracked the 40 mark today and Christmas lights are down. Now epic cold and snow can commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 FYI, this was not a private message. I had posted that here in this thread, thought better of it, and deleted it. Lightning fast stebo quoted it in between those two actions. But anyway, cracked the 40 mark today and Christmas lights are down. Now epic cold and snow can commence. If I had some weather I probably wouldn't be paying close enough attention to the forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 FYI, this was not a private message. I had posted that here in this thread, thought better of it, and deleted it. Lightning fast stebo quoted it in between those two actions. But anyway, cracked the 40 mark today and Christmas lights are down. Now epic cold and snow can commence. [Oh, I see... As I told Stebo in PM, I am sorry if my complaining irks you guys. I didn't even realize how I was coming across. More frustrated than anything. I just wish you hadn't called me out the way you did on the complaint thread. quote name=Stebo" post="1987382" timestamp="1357690017] If I had some weather I probably wouldn't be paying close enough attention to the forums. Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Wow, things are getting ugly in here today. Hey, I could see SOMETHING coming out of this. Maybe a little snow for someone, maybe a little ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 It's going to sound odd but I'm kind of looking forward to the warm up. I've had a terrible cough the last two weeks and I think the warmth, especially accompanied with higher dewpoints, is just what the doctor ordered. ban Only managed 42 today, which was a bit disappointing. Thought we had a shot at making a run at 50. Clouds must have kept us from warming as much. Still patches of snow left around area yards due to the underachevement. we still have a crust pack in a few areas but we'll be 100% snow free tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Wow, things are getting ugly in here today. Hey, I could see SOMETHING coming out of this. Maybe a little snow for someone, maybe a little ice. ecmwfNA_850_temp_144.gif I'll post pics of my .9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Wow, things are getting ugly in here today. Hey, I could see SOMETHING coming out of this. Maybe a little snow for someone, maybe a little ice. ecmwfNA_850_temp_144.gif Yeah, much of it is my fault. Apologies. Anyways, that image looks like something should come out of the low. Alek, we may need to issue a winter weather advisory for your one inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Wow, things are getting ugly in here today. Hey, I could see SOMETHING coming out of this. Maybe a little snow for someone, maybe a little ice. ecmwfNA_850_temp_144.gif I agree, there is potential there with the gradient like that, just need some of the moisture thrown back into the cold sector. That part of the equation has been missing from runs so far as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Wow, things are getting ugly in here today. Hey, I could see SOMETHING coming out of this. Maybe a little snow for someone, maybe a little ice. ecmwfNA_850_temp_144.gif That's almost off the chart cold! I think will see a storm. It might be run of the mill, but that'll be fine. The SE ridge could be our friend in part of the subforum if it holds the storm track in one swath for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 That's almost off the chart cold! I think will see a storm. It might be run of the mill, but that'll be fine. The SE ridge could be our friend in part of the subforum if it holds the storm track in one swath for several days. I think I speak for all of NE IL when I agree, run of the mill is fine. In fact, how about a massive jan 17th overachiever for my birthday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I think I speak for all of NE IL when I agree, run of the mill is fine. In fact, how about a massive jan 17th overachiever for my birthday? It seems that for my birthday; Feb. 5, that there is almost always snow! Except last year. Before last winter, I think I had a white b-day 4 years in a row. 4 more more days of this boring mild stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Nice AFD from LOT regarding potential record temperatures on Saturday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ink to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Wow, things are getting ugly in here today. Hey, I could see SOMETHING coming out of this. Maybe a little snow for someone, maybe a little ice. ecmwfNA_850_temp_144.gif Verbatum it was actually quite a nice snowstorm for here. Future runs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 00z GFS coming in with more close teasers. It's at least worth a prayer for the Chicago and SW MI. Run-to-run consistency is terrible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 It's going to sound odd but I'm kind of looking forward to the warm up. I've had a terrible cough the last two weeks and I think the warmth, especially accompanied with higher dewpoints, is just what the doctor ordered. I got something like that at the beginning of Fall, wasn't as bad as the swine flu but it was annoying and almost everyone I knew got it. College towns like Madison are a breeding ground for viruses in the Fall and Winter, people are stuck indoors most of the time, stressed out from lack of sleep, drink too damn much, don't eat right, don't exercise, etc. Several of my students were gone for a week or 2 from being sick this past semester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Potential for obscene overnight temps on Jan 12...I could see us staying in the 50s...problem is that we probably won't hold it the rest of the day unless the cold front slows down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Temp surged to 38F here (warmest all day)... weird I'm almost 100% sure my wife had influenza that started around Halloween and lasted nearly a week (several days of fever). I also had something right around that time, but mine was very mild (just a day of fever/chills)... Whole family has been pretty good for the last month or so (in regards to illness). Little kids are the worse. I went to my son's school back in December and watched a little girl sit there and and suck on all her fingers! (YUCK!)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Temp surged to 38F here (warmest all day)... weird I'm almost 100% sure my wife had influenza that started around Halloween and lasted nearly a week (several days of fever). I also had something right around that time, but mine was very mild (just a day of fever/chills)... Whole family has been pretty good for the last month or so (in regards to illness). Little kids are the worse. I went to my son's school back in December and watched a little girl sit there and and suck on all her fingers! (YUCK!)... Temp made it up to 39 F an hour ago, nothing like above freezing temps at night to really accelerate a melt. Winds gusting over 20 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Friday and/or Saturday look like they have the potential to reach 60 degrees here. The last time we hit 60 in January was on January 31 of last year. The last time there were at least 2 consecutive days in a row in January was January 6-8, 2008 (64, 69, 63) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Temps have held in the upper 30s all eve here. Most of the snow patches are gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'll be hitting the golf course Saturday if the front slows down or just play early. Rain should be long gone by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 29F for a low last nite... ouch.. Record low for today is -31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 We're starting to get a better picture of the next week or so...storm 1 starting tomorrow is a soaker and storm 2 will also be a soaker (possible light mix ribbon on the back side). Storm 3 is going to be the one to watch for snow...hopefully we start to see some better agreement re: timing issues. 12z GFS is trending even less impressive than 6z. This pattern change is shaping up to be a total dud for all other than rain fans. cold shot is going to be shunted hard off to the north east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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