Jonger Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Best 12Z GFS run to date. You guys are too focused on the storm. Its going to be 50 degrees fri-sat, lets get some cold in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 could you point me towards a desirable model I can hug? I said the 12z Euro was close to something for Chicago and you dismissed it. Fair enough. Enjoy the rest of your "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Sadly that almost never happens, with the amount of WAA we will probably end up decently windy during the duration of the warmup. Agree 100%..especially in winter/spring ... The air may be "warm", but with a 20-30mph wind, it sure doesn't feel so hot when your out on a bike ride or walking into the wind... much rather have cooler/calm conditions... Only time I don't mind a wind is in summer, although a south wind is usually like a furnace in July. Some high thin clouds streaming through today... still managing mid 30fs.. Not sure how much a hit our snow pack will take...think a lot depends on the amt of rain we get. Snow cover still holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I said the 12z Euro was close to something for Chicago and you dismissed it. Fair enough. Enjoy the rest of your "winter". Fair enough, it's close in the sense that it's close to a 1" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I am with Chicago Wx, I don't understand some in this region, looking immediately for the worst outcome and then completely buying it 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I am with Chicago Wx, I don't understand some in this region, looking immediately for the worst outcome and then completely buying it 100%. I get the frustration, I really do. Some places have been screwed so far this winter, no denying that. But I'm not going to change anyone's mind that it may get better, so I'm done trying. I'm probably wrong anyway. As I said, enjoy the rest of the season...I'm out. EDIT: and I talking more about the pattern ahead all along, to be clear. Not just one big bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I am with Chicago Wx, I don't understand some in this region, looking immediately for the worst outcome and then completely buying it 100%. No one is doing that. I acknowledge the 12/18z GFS runs that showed similar solutions yesterday (almost no one talked about them and i even predicted they would come in wetter...they didn't)...a backside inch looks possible during this timeframe but we're worlds away from the big storm most were looking for during this period. The 500 mb map is a mess and we're seeing less and less wound up solutions during this timeframe. The writing is on the wall and it looks more likely we'll transition without a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 The consensus has been and continues to be showing that there isn't any decent threat. Could it change, obviously it can, but there's theres nothing showing toward it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I get the frustration, I really do. Some places have been screwed so far this winter, no denying that. But I'm not going to change anyone's mind that it may get better, so I'm done trying. I'm probably wrong anyway. As I said, enjoy the rest of the season...I'm out. Yeah it's getting pretty pointless to read around here, too much Chicago poster influence assuming the weather is going to always be terrible for the rest of eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yeah it's getting pretty pointless to read around here, too much Chicago influence assuming the weather is going to always be terrible for the rest of eternity. another strawman. We still have the end of January and February but the mid month pattern change looks like it won't deliver. It's that simple. No need to insert your own fears into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 another strawman. We still have the end of January and February but the mid month pattern change looks like it won't deliver. It's that simple. No need to insert your own fears into the mix. What fears, I don't have a forecast I am riding, plus the pattern change favors Eastern parts of the region more than anything anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yeah it's getting pretty pointless to read around here, too much Chicago influence assuming the weather is going to always be terrible for the rest of eternity. another strawman. We still have the end of January and February but the mid month pattern change looks like it won't deliver. It's that simple. No need to insert your own fears into the mix. Won't deliver for a storm to start it off.... Who's to say that a more southern storm would have changed the pattern? We are looking at major cold and that sets the plate for something better... Let's get the clipper express fired up. Man, you sound like an eastcoast big dog storm type... How common is that around here anyhow? Not very. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Like many, I'm already looking forward to spring. February may still deliver, but waiting has worn me out mentally, and I'm ready to look forward to warmer weather.Jumping the gun much? What about "jan may still deliver"? It is the 8th of the month! Every single month on here people are assuming the current month is shot before its a third over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I am with Chicago Wx, I don't understand some in this region, looking immediately for the worst outcome and then completely buying it 100%.We have a run of the mill january thaw on the way, very typical, then back into winter. Yes Chicago has been screwed but other than that the region has had colder than normal temps and snowcover for the most part since the winter solstice. I honestly don't know what some want. If model shows mega cold its whining about suppression, eases on the cold then we get complaints about that. Its a literal no win around here, ever. Regardless while im not looking forward to losing the snowpack I AM looking forward to knowing the brief warmth is over already by sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I am with Chicago Wx, I don't understand some in this region, looking immediately for the worst outcome and then completely buying it 100%.We have a run of the mill january thaw on the way, very typical, then back into winter. Yes Chicago has been screwed but other than that the region has had colder than normal temps and snowcover for the most part since the winter solstice. I honestly don't know what some want. If model shows mega cold its whining about suppression, eases on the cold then we get complaints about that. Its a literal no win around here, ever. Regardless while im not looking forward to losing the snowpack I AM looking forward to knowing the brief warmth is over already by sunday! How often does a 50 degree day evolve into a big storm... Usually the front clears with frozen puddles and a dusting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Lot of 40F+ readings showing up in N Wisconsin. 35F here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Lot of 40F+ readings showing up in N Wisconsin. 35F here... Those pine trees soak up the warmth more! Been hovering around 39° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 What fears, I don't have a forecast I am riding, plus the pattern change favors Eastern parts of the region more than anything anyways. exactly what those of us negative nellies not in the eastern parts are thinking. shame on us for not liking our chances back this way again for the foreseeable future. Nobody from mke to chicago has cancelled winter for their backyard or the entire sub-forum - yet all winter so far the positive polly's continue to spin it like we have for sucks fake. I'd be pretty excited if I was in MI for LES combined with a couple clippers/disturbances to drop in. OV could be a nice spot to be also. Chicago and more-so mke naso so much the place to be for a while still unless things change on models. Nice thing is even if we waste the first 2/3's of January there is still a lot of winter left to score a couple big storms back this way and once I get in to feb/morch that's what my eyes are looking for - not nickle and dime stat padding crap that melts away in sun baked area's in a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Pretty nice day here up to 43 currently with sun Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Pretty nice day here up to 43 currently with sun Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 exactly what those of us negative nellies not in the eastern parts are thinking. shame on us for not liking our chances back this way again for the foreseeable future. Nobody from mke to chicago has cancelled winter for their backyard or the entire sub-forum - yet all winter so far the positive polly's continue to spin it like we have for sucks fake. I'd be pretty excited if I was in MI for LES combined with a couple clippers/disturbances to drop in. OV could be a nice spot to be also. Chicago and more-so mke naso so much the place to be for a while still unless things change on models. Nice thing is even if we waste the first 2/3's of January there is still a lot of winter left to score a couple big storms back this way and once I get in to feb/morch that's what my eyes are looking for - not nickle and dime stat padding crap that melts away in sun baked area's in a day. This is how I like people thinking, instead of foolishly cancelling the rest of the month. If I had gone by Dec 8th's model predictions and used them for face value I would have probably said December was going to end like crap, but it didn't. Things aren't etched in stone at all with meteorology so the silly cancelling of any time period >5 days is a waste of typing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Sudden stratospheric warming in full swing, associated cold shot on long range GFS is impressive with 850 temps bottoming out at -27 C over Madison. I'm expecting the models to change quite a bit before the cold shot happens though, things become quite chaotic for numerical forecasting as the polar vortex falls apart. Only thing guaranteed now is we will be seeing some Arctic air as the polar vortex initially breaks apart, followed by warmer conditions from lack of polar air, and then things will slowly get cooler as the polar vortex rebuilds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 It's going to sound odd but I'm kind of looking forward to the warm up. I've had a terrible cough the last two weeks and I think the warmth, especially accompanied with higher dewpoints, is just what the doctor ordered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 It's going to sound odd but I'm kind of looking forward to the warm up. I've had a terrible cough the last two weeks and I think the warmth, especially accompanied with higher dewpoints, is just what the doctor ordered. I hear whatever is going around this year is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I hear whatever is going around this year is brutal. Speaking from experience, it wasn't fun. Took me a good 2 weeks to recover... So, yeah, I'm with SSC, I'm not totally disappointed about the warmth for a few day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Aw poor baby...roads too slick for ya? lol, do you actually like driving when the roads are crappy? Lack of snow just doesn't get to me like it used to. And it's not like we're doing poorly anyway to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I hear whatever is going around this year is brutal. I usually never get sick so for it to hit me, it'd have to be a stone motha ****a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yeah it seems like there's a lot of sickness going around. Even some people I know who got the flu shot have come down with what seems like the flu. Anyway, made it to the 40s here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Only managed 42 today, which was a bit disappointing. Thought we had a shot at making a run at 50. Clouds must have kept us from warming as much. Still patches of snow left around area yards due to the underachevement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 exactly what those of us negative nellies not in the eastern parts are thinking. shame on us for not liking our chances back this way again for the foreseeable future. Nobody from mke to chicago has cancelled winter for their backyard or the entire sub-forum - yet all winter so far the positive polly's continue to spin it like we have for sucks fake. I'd be pretty excited if I was in MI for LES combined with a couple clippers/disturbances to drop in. OV could be a nice spot to be also. Chicago and more-so mke naso so much the place to be for a while still unless things change on models. Nice thing is even if we waste the first 2/3's of January there is still a lot of winter left to score a couple big storms back this way and once I get in to feb/morch that's what my eyes are looking for - not nickle and dime stat padding crap that melts away in sun baked area's in a day. In my observations from reading this board, Stebo seems a bit pompous and just puts others down if he doesn't like their posts. It is easier to be alright wih the winter when one's region has gotten winter. I don't understand why some on this board expect Chicagoans and West Michiganders to be all daisies with this winter. It makes sense that we would be skeptical of anything good in terms of snowfall when really, nothing, has worked out. Makes sense to me...but some think you HAVE TO be positive. I decided to take my rants over to the "complaint thread" and some posters came over and act annoyed to read it. Then don't go there to read it. Not everybody has to be "all roses"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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