Nelson Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 not to derail the discussion, but can I get a technical definition of the term "whoppie" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Blizzard of 1978 redux about 50 miles to the east or bust. BTW, whatever happened to snowstormcanuck's pics of him having "Whoopie" with his snow? It's a family board. PM me for pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I will take active over not active even if it meant warm/wet because you have a much better chance at running into one with that type of pattern. Sure the snow cover will eventually take a hit but it could be replenished with a good storm in an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Looks very torchy through mid-month. Vortex is on the right side of the hemisphere but not doing us much good with the ridge/blocking setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Looks very torchy through mid-month. Vortex is on the right side of the hemisphere but not doing us much good with the ridge/blocking setup. I would agree with this, with the AO going positive to potentially very positive until mid month things are probably going to warm up, if we get a +NAO/-PNA along with it, then it may get very much above normal through mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 6z GEFS are a full out blowtorch from Jan 7 onward. +21º 2m departures tickling the upper Plains on the 8th. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2_6z/tloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 6z GEFS are a full out blowtorch from Jan 7 onward. +21º 2m departures tickling the upper Plains on the 8th. http://www.meteo.psu...2_6z/tloop.html The mid month flip certainly is in the cards there as well. I would probably be watching the Jan 15-20 time period when the pattern flips there will probably be a strong storm that comes with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Next 7 days look decent and than yuck for a week. Personally I would rather keep the cold and suppression over warmth.... We seem to get stuck in warmth patterns too often with the active pacific. Plus, let's freeze those lakes up. It always seems that those without recreational interests favor the wild swings... Screw that. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Mid January/dead of winter thaw coming early this year. GFS looks like a snowpack killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Definitely looks like a warming trend is in the cards in the extended. Will be interesting to see how much damage it does to the negative anomalies built up until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 12z shows a good melt ...been good hints of a thaw...so we shall see. The snowpack here isn't that great (not much moisture in it) so a few days of some warm temps would probably hit it hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 And yet the GEFS mean temperature average anamoly for the U.S. is largely below normal for the 16 day period. 18z from yesterday. Up to -4° for the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Here is the NAEFS I may be way off, but i think when its all said and done, the month is not going to end up a torch. There is a lot of snowcover right now that will need to be melted... especially if its stays sunny (cold nights)... I suppose if we get a week of clouds and 30F...that could hurt averages...but i'd rather have cold/clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Definitely looks like a warming trend is in the cards in the extended. Will be interesting to see how much damage it does to the negative anomalies built up until then. They'll get wiped out fairly easily IMO. The 7-14th, at least, is a roaster on the 12z GEFS. Lots of 9º+ days upcoming...and the 2m departure maps are usually biased "cool" in the medium/long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 They'll get wiped out fairly easily IMO. The 7-14th, at least, is a roaster on the 12z GEFS. Lots of 9º+ days upcoming...and the 2m departure maps are usually biased "cool" in the medium/long range. You could be right. I'm banking on something around -5 to -7 for the first week. Then it's all downhill from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 We gotta watch how this SSW and polar vortex split comes about. Could be seeing some significant changes like Stebo said above around the 15-20th. 10hPa winds at the pole flip hard around the 11th. http://www.cpc.ncep....here/strat_a_f/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 You could be right. I'm banking on something around -5 to -7 for the first week. Then it's all downhill from there. The Euro ensembles are even warmer...so yeah. But I don't think this signals the end, not that anyone has thankfully said that. I can see the last 10 days of January turning more wintry...kind of like December did. For who, that's the question. It's cliche I suppose, but I do have hopes that February might be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 We gotta watch how this SSW and polar vortex split comes about. Could be seeing some significant changes like Stebo said above around the 15-20th. 10hPa winds at the pole flip hard around the 11th. http://www.cpc.ncep....here/strat_a_f/ The warmth may end up spawning one hell of a storm system if we can get a major arctic blast to slam south into it with the right jet structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 What a turnaround from only a few days ago when most of us thought we were headed for a colder than normal month across pretty much all of North America. The CFS is garbage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 What a turnaround from only a few days ago when most of us thought we were headed for a colder than normal month across pretty much all of North America. The CFS is garbage! Time for a break there OB. You're cracking worse than I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 If I recall corectly most January's have a warm up of some extent during the month. I bet it would be hard pressed to find a DTX month of January with no days above freezing. I look at it like this the cold came in and will be supressed as the next batch reloads in the north. During the cold warm temperature wars is when most of us get the big snows anyway. With the gobal weather systems so screwy at the moment I would not put very much faith in the long term cold or warm. I think this weather pattern will have us sitting on the edge of our seats before long. More storms are going to be brewing, its weather reload time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Here's the final CFSv2 run for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Here's the final CFSv2 run for January. Looking blocky El-Ninoish. Do you know if that output is based off a running mean, or is each output completely discrete from the previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Looking blocky El-Ninoish. Do you know if that output is based off a running mean, or is each output completely discrete from the previous run? I'm not sure. That is an ugly dry area...hopefully it doesn't pan out like that but at least the first part of the month doesn't look like it will be getting off to a good start for much of us in terms of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 For my Toronto brethren: January futility # at Pearson is 1.7" back in Jan 1988. Not that we should even be contemplating that now. Dec 2012 should prove how you can turn an abject disaster into a mere letdown just in the last week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Time for a break there OB. You're cracking worse than I would. You're probably right Canuck! Happy New Year to you and all the Lakes/Midwest posters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Doesn't get much worse than this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 What a turnaround from only a few days ago when most of us thought we were headed for a colder than normal month across pretty much all of North America. The CFS is garbage! This warmup has been on the GFS for about 4 days now. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Doesn't get much worse than this... Disgusting. Cold for me, but warm and zonal is such a bad combination. And to be honest, I'm tired of the cold up here in the Pacific NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 If I recall corectly most January's have a warm up of some extent during the month. I bet it would be hard pressed to find a DTX month of January with no days above freezing. I look at it like this the cold came in and will be supressed as the next batch reloads in the north. During the cold warm temperature wars is when most of us get the big snows anyway. With the gobal weather systems so screwy at the moment I would not put very much faith in the long term cold or warm. I think this weather pattern will have us sitting on the edge of our seats before long. More storms are going to be brewing, its weather reload time. Thing is that Januarys have been getting much warmer in recent decades. Just go to the Environment Canada webiste and skim through some of the years if you get the chance. If you were a betting person, you would bet on a warm January overall these days. Toronto likely to tie December 1931 and December 2011 for one of the warmest Decembers since records began in 1839, with 2006 being the warmest. Anyways, I realize that's off topic and should probably be a topic for the climate change forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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