A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 12z GFS ensembles are a bunch of hot garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Some of the east coast big dogs and many in our subforum saw the previous active pattern coming and it delivered...the midwest/lakes is a huge area, we'll see who gets lucky. 75% of this sub-forum cancelled winter on November 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I realize that...but I've been beating the drum with a little more positivity. Just nice to see HM thinking that period holds some promise for our region. That's all. He's pretty good at what he does. We'll see. thats great news to hear. Just hope its the entire midwest that sees it, dont wanna leave anyone out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Up to 35F here... Look to be over performing so far today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 12z GFS ensembles are a bunch of hot garbage Are they trending toward the operational and killing the cold spell duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 75% 85% of this sub-forum cancelled winter on November 25 10 fixed And dont forget that the timeperiod around Christmas-New Years that delivered 8-16" of snow to much of OH, IN, and SE MI was said to have "nothing on the horizon" a few days before the winter solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Some of the east coast big dogs and many in our subforum saw the previous active pattern coming and it delivered...the midwest/lakes is a huge area, we'll see who gets lucky. I think the next couple weeks will tell the tale of the winter for Chicago. If they cash in, then maybe it ends up being ok or run of the mill below average. If they miss out, there's probably no coming back to salvage a good winter. It'd be like trying to convert a hail mary while blindfolded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Are they trending toward the operational and killing the cold spell duration. I dont check out the individual ensembles, but the ensemble mean doesn't have a temp above freezing here after hour 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I think the next couple weeks will tell the tale of the winter for Chicago. If they cash in, then maybe it ends up being ok or run of the mill below average. If they miss out, there's probably no coming back to salvage a good winter. It'd be like trying to convert a hail mary while blindfolded. There's always a Feb 2007 for someone. But it depends if that's enough to salvage one's winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I think the next couple weeks will tell the tale of the winter for Chicago. If they cash in, then maybe it ends up being ok or run of the mill below average. If they miss out, there's probably no coming back to salvage a good winter. It'd be like trying to convert a hail mary while blindfolded. Pretty much, it's hard to put together a decent season total when you get nothing from 2 or your 3 biggest snow months (not to mention no bonus November action). The 15th and just beyond continues to look active but i'd feel better if there was an occasional run or two showing a major snow for the general region but they just aren't out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 There's always a Feb 2007 for someone. But it depends if that's enough to salvage one's winter. Well, their winter standards are higher than ours so they'd probably need something like Feb 2007 and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well, their winter standards are higher than ours so they'd probably need something like Feb 2007 and then some. 26" of snow in 12 days wouldn't cut it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 26" of snow in 12 days wouldn't cut it? that would be ideal...pile it all up ASAP and then on to another warm March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 26" of snow in 12 days wouldn't cut it? Id say for most on here it would. Those of us who are more into winter as a whole, no, but the storm guys, absolutely. I remember several years back Denver had a nearly snowless winter then had a 3 foot storm in late March. Storm would be awesome, but no way would it salvage the nonexistent winter for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 26" of snow in 12 days wouldn't cut it? It's been a near shutout and they average north of 35". Months like Feb 2007 show what can happen but you're living dangerously if you're counting on something like that as a bail out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It's been a near shutout and they average north of 35". Months like Feb 2007 show what can happen but you're living dangerously if you're counting on something like that as a bail out. It's a hypothetical, relax. I understand Chicago's climo quite well. Anyway, we'll see how it all shakes in the end. I like the potential from mid-month onward for the region, but who wins and who loses TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 Epic Chicago pattern this time? lol. How did that work out last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 lol. How did that work out last time. pretty well for areas just NW and just SE...not sure how much accuracy you can reasonably expect at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 pretty well for areas just NW and just SE...not sure how much accuracy you can reasonably expect at this range. I was being sarcastic given the futility here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 lol. How did that work out last time. Epic Madison and Indy pattern...close enough I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I'll pass on the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I'll pass on the 12z Euro End of the run could try to cook something up if that low in the southwest doesn't get stuck there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 End of the run could try to cook something up if.... Story of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro is close to something big by 192. Southwest energy may hang back just enough to screw it up but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Inversion city on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 it's a shame we don't have snowpack to deliver a classic january thaw dense fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 Inversion city on Thursday Overdone. Just like it shows for today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 that's one hell of a stubborn southeast ridge on the euro. I guess that's a good thing for us folks west of the apps. If the euro is up to it's old game of hanging energy back...and in reality it all comes out. Wow, with that southeast ridge and the cold drilling down the plains someone in this region is gonna get CLOCKED. It'll be interesting to see when/if we start to get a blockbuster storm concensus on the models soon. Damn, we all need something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The difference in those soundings is a wind off the lake. So I would expect an inversion on Thursday! - particularly up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 36F... see some stations in this area are showing low 40Fs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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