michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Tonights lows have me wondering. Temp sitting at 34 and a forecast low of 20..... Looking at temps accross lower Mi I can't see the sudden drop comming. DaddyLL nice walk you had today. Ice in these parts not ready for that kind of adventure. Although Lake Erie and St Claire are starting to chunk over. Love to see the beauty in everyones back yards. Perhaps the cold will slosh back into the region after Jan thaw much like in Dec. The cold pushed SE with the storm track during the month. By looking at the GFS the same SE shift might work again. Stayed overcast all night (as often happens here lol) so temps never did fall. They are actually falling now as the suns up. Snow is probably a frozen glacier now. Oh, and yes, nice pics dll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 1 week from now the cold will already be locked back into place. With a big area of snowcover lost, however, we will have to hope we get into a snowy pattern. Locked? Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Locked? Not really. Ensembles say locked, operational says temporary. With the pacific in its overbearing mode, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Might have 2 severe weather threats in the Ohio Valley in quick succession...one on the 10th and potentially a bigger one around the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Cut-off 1 is a lock for rain for the entire sub-forum, storm 2 (850 over MSP on 12z GFS) is a lock for rain for 100% of the subforum and beyond that concensus falls apart given typical pattern change issues. IMO Storm 3 looks to be right on the heels of 2, so much so that I don't expect the trough to go negative and don't expect much to come from it. Storm 4, who knows but many of us will be risking suppression by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 decent flooding threat as waves ride the positively tiled trough over the potent semi-stalled baroclinic zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Cut-off 1 is a lock for rain for the entire sub-forum, storm 2 (850 over MSP on 12z GFS) is a lock for rain for 100% of the subforum and beyond that concensus falls apart given typical pattern change issues. IMO Storm 3 looks to be right on the heels of 2, so much so that I don't expect the trough to go negative and don't expect much to come from it. Storm 4, who knows but many of us will be risking suppression by that point. Storm 3 looks like an anafrontal type setup, at least on the GFS. Freezing rain in LAF at 144 hours on the 12z GFS...a KTIM special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Too many pieces of energy all at once, if any of them had any sort of wave separation you'd get a strong solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Too many pieces of energy all at once, if any of them had any wave separation you'd get a strong solution. This has been an issue for a while now, going back to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 This has been an issue for a while now, going back to last winter. Yes but we haven't really had a favorable long wave trough location too often in that time frame. Which makes this week different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I wish sometimes there was no access to the op runs past 180/192 hours. The hugging that goes on past that point is downright stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Storm 3 looks like an anafrontal type setup, at least on the GFS. Freezing rain in LAF at 144 hours on the 12z GFS...a KTIM special. I'm rooting for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I wish sometimes there was no access to the op runs past 180/192 hours. The hugging that goes on past that point is downright stupid. i stopped prognosticating at hr 150 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I'm rooting for ya. No no, I'm rooting for you. Hopefully we lay down some snow before pipe bursting cold comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 i stopped prognosticating at hr 150 or so Smart man. But every six hours on this board is winter cancel, winter un-cancel, winter cancel, winter un-cancel...all based off every GFS run past 192 hours. I mean come on. It's an exercise in futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 No no, I'm rooting for you. Hopefully we lay down some snow before pipe bursting cold comes in. Of course, but I'm talking about the ice storm deal. I know that's what you've been seeking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Got down to 12 early this morning. Already back up to 33, and moving up quick. Let the thaw commence. Bye-bye snow cover, it's been a great 2 1/2 weeks. Thanks for the white xmas lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Definitely has been nice almost 2 weeks of cold and snow cover. Just need any winter weather can hold off until after Jan 15th, son is heading off to San Antonio for Air Force Basic Training. Then it can get cold and snowy once again after that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 These will get wiped out quite easily by this time next week, should be sporting decent + departures by then...but here's the temperature departures for the first 6 days of January in central Indiana. IND: -5.1º EYE: -5.2º LAF: -5.4º GEZ: -6.5º BMG: -6.6º HUF: -7.0º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 For storm 2, I think some areas in the subforum should get snow. Mostly rain, but DLL, mnweather, Andy, and Turtle in particular could see some snow. After the cool down this weekend, I highly doubt will see any mild days like this week the rest of the month. Everything points to lengthy time below freezing. The GFS is trying push the cold air too far east too fast. So I think the subforum will be under the gun for some snow systems through the 25th or so before a colder, drier air mass moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38691-moving-past-first-week-of-january-general-discussionbanter/page-20#entry1985075'>http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38691-moving-past-first-week-of-january-general-discussionbanter/page-20#entry1985075 Warm up the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 12z GFS almost says put a fork in Jan...at least this run... shows the cold shot, but its very tame compared to earlier runs... Looks like rain later this week...temps still don't look to get very high here, so that should save most of the ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Geos- I hope we get some more snow, especially after the rain this week...but the GFS shows almost no precip for this area... What the heck is with all the rain in winter around here? For how cold it gets here, the past few years sure have had plenty of winter rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38691-moving-past-first-week-of-january-general-discussionbanter/page-20#entry1985075 Warm up the bus. we've been talking about the 1/15ish period for close to a week now...i'll be watching but don't feel all that optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 we've been talking about the 1/15ish period for close to a week now...i'll be watching but don't feel all that optimistic. I realize that...but I've been beating the drum with a little more positivity. Just nice to see HM thinking that period holds some promise for our region. That's all. He's pretty good at what he does. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I realize that...but I've been beating the drum with a little more positivity. Just nice to see HM thinking that period holds some promise for our region. That's all. He's pretty good at what he does. We'll see. Epic Chicago pattern this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Locked? Not really. Im talking cold-enough-to-snow cold, not epic cold. After this weeks warmup, every single signal, model, ensemble shows the cold returning. Its strength is to be determined, but its silly to make this typical (but annoying) January thaw anything more than that - a January thaw. If the GFS eases off the cold, we will hear "gfs already taming the cold" and if it strengthens the cold we will hear "great suppression here we come". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 12z GFS almost says put a fork in Jan...at least this run... shows the cold shot, but its very tame compared to earlier runs... Looks like rain later this week...temps still don't look to get very high here, so that should save most of the ice... My epic meltdown the other day was alluding to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I realize that...but I've been beating the drum with a little more positivity. Just nice to see HM thinking that period holds some promise for our region. That's all. He's pretty good at what he does. We'll see. Epic Chicago pattern this time? Some of the east coast big dogs and many in our subforum saw the previous active pattern coming and it delivered...the midwest/lakes is a huge area, we'll see who gets lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Epic Chicago pattern this time? I hope so. But you know how it goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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