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January 2013 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Next week looks very mild, at least for Jan around here... 12z GFS is very dry, so don't see any accumulation for at least another week.

I think you gotta follow the euro at this point. The gfs went from showing the polar vortex over MN a few days ago in the long term, to a continually delayed run of the mill January cold shot and trough centered further and further west. No doubt the cold will come, but probably sometime after the 18 th at the earliest (at least here in Ohio)

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Next week looks very mild, at least for Jan around here... 12z GFS is very dry, so don't see any accumulation for at least another week.

I think you gotta follow the euro at this point. The gfs went from showing the polar vortex over MN a few days ago in the long term, to a continually delayed run of the mill January cold shot and trough centered further and further west. No doubt the cold will come, but probably sometime after the 18 th at the earliest (at least here in Ohio)

It's hard to get a true cold shot with the pacific blitzing the continent with warm air.

Partly its the lack of block, just not a good combo... 1990's winter.

Jon

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But its ok for you Chicago posters to meltdown.

 

I haven't noticed any meltdown by ORD posters. In fact, most of the posts are referring to cheering on the futility run and those of us outsiders who are lightheartedly teasing them. You can't change it, so you might as well laugh about it.

 

A meltdown is freaking out over the long range GFS.

 

P.S. For a little solace, go read QVectorman's analysis in the long term thread.

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I haven't noticed any meltdown by ORD posters. In fact, most of the posts are referring to cheering on the futility run and those of us outsiders who are lightheartedly teasing them. You can't change it, so you might as well laugh about it.

A meltdown is freaking out over the long range GFS.

P.S. For a little solace, go read QVectorman's analysis in the long term thread.

QVectorman has been so spot on. Its great to have his thoughts and input for our region.

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lol.

 

Anyway, stratocumulus has advected in. WE've had cloudy skies for the past hour. YAY!!!

 

Winter in Michigan and we have a weak system moving in, not sure why the cloud cover is surprising or why you lamenting about it. Hell it was sunny all day yesterday probably should have gone out then if you wanted to something in the sun.

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Winter in Michigan and we have a weak system moving in, not sure why the cloud cover is surprising or why you lamenting about it. Hell it was sunny all day yesterday probably should have gone out then if you wanted to something in the sun.

 

The same reason some people lament about our hot/humid summers

 

BTW, looking at the satellite, the SC overhead has nothing to do with the approaching system. It's mostly clear across much of the state. If anything, it may be lake enhanced by Erie/St. Clair.

 

20130105_1615_DTW_vis.jpg

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The same reason some people lament about our hot/humid summers

 

BTW, looking at the satellite, the SC overhead has nothing to do with the approaching system. It's msotly clear across much of the state. If anything, it may be lake enhanced by Erie/St. Clair.

 

20130105_1615_DTW_vis.jpg

Lake enhanced due to the wind coming out of the South ahead of the next system...

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Lake enhanced due to the wind coming out of the South ahead of the next system...

But not directly tied to the lift/dynamics of the next shortwave. The bulk of th shortwave after all is still located, in two separate pieces, across MO/KS/OK and the Dakotas.

 

Otherwise, I imagine we would have mid/upper level clouds advecting in above the stratocumulus deck currently and the areas upstream across Northern Indiana and SW Michigan would also be overcast.

 

If anything, the cause of the SC deck locally is likely a combination of things...

 

1. WAA at/above 850mb brining in temps aloft at/above 0*C or 32*F.

2. Surface temps falling into the middle teens under clear skies last night.

3. Surface moisture increase from all of the water that evaporated from the snowpack yesterday.

4. A bit of lake enhancement form Lake Erie/St. Clair.

 

WAA can be generated simply by rising heights aloft and return flow behind a high pressure system.

 

dwpt_chg.gif?1357405515736

 

850mb.gif?1357405482921

 

vadv.gif?1357405428807

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GFS showing a bit more precip with this system than before, 0.05-0.1" liquid. We'll see how much of that is freezing rain/drizzle and how much is snow, could create some havoc if it ends up being mostly rain since temps will be solidly below freezing throughout the event in Madison.

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37º at ORD. Futility will live on.

 

 

Got flakes here now in the LAF too.  

 

I was just getting ready to post that I hadn't seen hide nor hair of Tim for the past couple of days. I figured that you'd be on here crowing about your up to 1" of incoming snow.

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