Geos Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 34 on my thermometer. Bye bye snow. Must be better WAA up where you are at! I don't think areas outside of the NE IL snow hole are going to lose much today. The snow is so frozen and dense that it would probably take a 40° afternoon to melt it off. If this was low density snow, then I would have been gone by the time we hit 30° late this morning with sun. SREF didn't even have you hitting freezing today! Sometimes it's best to start off with a fresh snow cover again. Gets mangy looking like cyclone said yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I'd be a rich guy if I had a dollar for every time the GFS 2m temps were underdone. That being said, there is snowpack to deal with and some uncertainty about how things evolve as far as the cutoff so there are reasons to not go all out yet. I think the summertime GFS problems were fixed in August of this year. It had something to do with soil moisture. As far as the cool season temperatures-- I don't really know what it is. If you look at the GFS MOS and MEX MOS, they have higher max temperatures than the 2m temperature directly from the GFS (at the warmest hour of the day.) and maybe for the entire 24-hour period (not sure.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 LOT mentioned this earlier this week regarding the cold bias the GFS is showing. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE WAS ABOUT 5F TOO COLD FOR HIGHS TUES IN AREAS WITH BARE GROUND AND MODEL INITIALIZATION OF THE SNOW COVER HAS BEEN HORRID...WITH IT THINKING THERE IS NEAR 4" OF SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF CHICAGO AREA AND UPWARDS OF 9 INCHES IN FAR SE CWA. THE POOR HANDLING OF SNOW COVER IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO POOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND A COLD BIAS IN BOTH MODEL 2M TEMPS AND STATISTICALLY DERIVED MOS NUMBERS. THE CHALLENGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A COLD BIAS THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING AND THEREFORE TEMP FORECAST IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Feels good to be back after 6 days off the weather forum.. quick glance at euro still shows the torch. figures after we just bought a boring touring snowmobile last sunday. At least we got this whole past week in riding on primo trails right out the garage door of my friends cabin near Horicon. Hopefully this torch saves some base but even if it does I have a gut feeling we'll be waiting until Feb before the sled leaves from that garage again unless we get a trailer. Even if we don't get out again this winter it was an awesome week vacation and the wife is hooked and wants her own sled now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Feels good to be back after 6 days off the weather forum.. quick glance at euro still shows the torch. figures after we just bought a boring touring snowmobile last sunday. At least we got this whole past week in riding on primo trails right out the garage door of my friends cabin near Horicon. Hopefully this torch saves some base but even if it does I have a gut feeling we'll be waiting until Feb before the sled leaves from that garage again unless we get a trailer. Even if we don't get out again this winter it was an awesome week vacation and the wife is hooked and wants her own sled now.. Stebo? Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Stebo? Jon lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Stebo? Jon Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 No snow on ground on Highway 10 Between Bay City and just west of Midland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 No snow on ground on Highway 10 Between Bay City and just west of Midland... Should drive through there at night, so you don't have to look at the snowless hell. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Duluth sitting at 34F, along with some areas of N WI>..must be the coniferous forests soaking up all that sunshine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Made it to 35° here. Snow melted a little on the edges. 80-85% snow cover in the neighborhood about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I like how the Euro is all on board with the late period cold surge. Hour 144 the GEM has the freezing line up to central Wisconsin, while the GFS has it up to the Hudson Bay! I just don't see above freezing temps making it above Lake Superior.... the snowpack is over 2 feet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I know its 380+ hours out, but the damn pacific still trying to shove the cold off the continent... We need to build a 40,000 tall wall along the US and Canadian coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I was pretty confident that without the March torch we had no way of breaking 2012's high temp record... Starting to think we will. This winter will finish +5 and than the western drought will torch us with easy to heat soil... I mean seriously, whats it going to take to get that pacific back to normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 The cold snap next week might be epic with regards to duration and intensity. Hopefully it doesn't get to "dry" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 The cold snap next week might be epic with regards to duration and intensity. Hopefully it doesn't get to "dry" Its one crap run, but the GFS shreds the cold pool with pacific piss as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Jonger meltdown in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Its one crap run, but the GFS shreds the cold pool with pacific piss as always. Its ok man...breath. Seem to have no issues pumping death ridges up this way but getting good chill is difficult. Honestly I think most of us would pass on a long duration dry, cold arctic airmass. The pre/post Christmas pattern seems to be producing anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Its ok man...breath. Seem to have no issues pumping death ridges up this way but getting good chill is difficult. Honestly I think most of us would pass on a long duration dry, cold arctic airmass. The pre/post Christmas pattern seems to be producing anyways. As long as there is snow, who cares? Lakes freeze and other activities are possible. Look, we all have our purposes for being weather fanatics... But the majority of cold weather fans have recreational interests, probably 95%. I prefer cold to warm for obvious reason, censored reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Yes, Jonger - breath! It was the 18z GFS after all! You know the 18z GFS can throw some off the wall solutions out there - it seems. If we get a high pressure to span into the high Arctic and/or over the pole, the cold air will only have one way to go - south! And it won't be able to escape off the East Coast if there is blocking, which is very common with a -AO. Hopefully we have a good active period as we transition from run of the mill January cold to polar cold. I do think will have a cold period like early Feb. 2007 sometime this winter. Hopefully when it's really cold out we can all enjoy nice LES and snow from Clippers while the storm track is across the OV or wherever it might be pushed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Take it to the complaint thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Jonger meltdown in progress. It's getting annoying. Shut up already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 It's getting annoying. Shut up already. Me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Temps overachieved today at 35. Snowpack didn't budge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Me? No no, him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 No no, him. Ah ok, I just thought cuz you quoted me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Going to be a real bummer if we fall short of a record because of a scant inch that melts 30 minutes later. Don't worry, Chi Storm knows his way around ORD. He'll have a broom in hand to take care of the snowboard. It's looking like you could see an inch though, barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 May have hit freezing today here... Tomorrow looking nearly a repeat. Sounds like a chance of freezing drizzle late Sat/early Sun...could be interesting and/or a traffic nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 A clear (but breezy) day today. While I prefer cloudy winter days, I always enjoy the sunset/dusk from a sunny winter day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 It's getting annoying. Shut up already. Yes....Talk of warmth WILL NOT BE TOLERATED! Lol, seriously what did he say that was so bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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