Geos Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 4km NAM brings the freezing line up to I-80 Saturday night and keeps the rest of northern IL between 30-32°. Wrt tomorrow, the model doesn't have it cracking 30° here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Funny how I have seen flakes in the air every day since Christmas. They might be very light at times but still something falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Decent little vort with this thing. Maybe a few pockets of overachievement possible. Looks like that snow this weekend would be completely at night (for IL). Roughly from 6pm Saturday - 6am Sunday. The wave on Saturday does look slightly better organized on the 00z NAM, but some of the issues I noticed when I looked at it today are still there. The forcing, while decent, looks to be weakening/shearing out as the wave pushes into IL. At the onset (21z NAM sounding for ORD), the low levels are a bit marginal thermally so the snow would have to come down hard at that time to accumulate efficiently, which may be tough given the weakening forcing: The sounding looks decent and colder at 00z: But then at 03z (and 6z and 9z), the low levels remain saturated, but saturation is lost in the snow growth region, so if anything there might be some leftover freezing drizzle and an occasional flurry once to Sat evening: Since the GFS soundings tell a similar story, it looks like a short window (late afternoon/early eve) where there could be some light snow, transitioning to drizzle in the mid evening, and things would have to go right to even get a light accumulation out of this one. I for one hope that it overachieves and ORD gets its 1" accum so Gino can stop writing about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 All week highs have been in the upper 20's and low to mid 30's. If only we had a system with some juice to work with, this would have been a great week for a snowstorm. Looks like we could warm back into the low to mid 50's next week. Hopefully, the warmup isn't here for long, and we cool back down with an open Gulf of Mexico to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Yeah unless the lake is active West Michigan and Chicago usually ( some exceptions ) have the same results. Most spots have between 6-9" for the season and yes that includes the heart of the Lake belts. Incredible stuff considering many of those areas should be at/around the 40" mark.. Been since 1952-53 since this area here has finished with below 30" on the season ( 27") and i imagine for them one has to go back to 1948-49. So far we are on pace with both. I suspect though we wont be talking futility for too much longer up this way. Gonna be very hard to do especially if we get that arctic chill late next week/beyond.. That will surely fire up the lake machine.. http://fox17online.com/2013/01/03/snow-drought-continues-in-michigan/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Since the GFS soundings tell a similar story, it looks like a short window (late afternoon/early eve) where there could be some light snow, transitioning to drizzle in the mid evening, and things would have to go right to even get a light accumulation out of this one. I for one hope that it overachieves and ORD gets its 1" accum so Gino can stop writing about it. A f*cking men. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 A f*cking men. The January 17th AFD could be gold if ORD is still waiting for a 1" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Lol^ Another cold one tonight, down to 14° IMBY. Backyard pond has about 4-5" of ice on it from this cold spell. EURO definitely beating the cutoff low drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 The January 17th AFD could be gold if ORD is still waiting for a 1" snow. Yup, that would go right along side with the many classic pieces of digital save worthy files. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Got down to 9 early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 After a chill morning, temps should rebound quite nicely today with full sunshine and a stiff SW wind.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Snow looks freshened up from all the wind last night. City plow truck out this AM to clean up the mess from all the drifting. Sunny and cold with the whistle of wind on the doors and windows too. Hoping the warm up is short lived. The nightime lows still look to dip below freezing most night so there will be lost nightly spot check to do duriing this time. A week of continual Alberta clippers would really make me smile!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Snow looks freshened up from all the wind last night. City plow truck out this AM to clean up the mess from all the drifting. Sunny and cold with the whistle of wind on the doors and windows too. Hoping the warm up is short lived. The nightime lows still look to dip below freezing most night so there will be lost nightly spot check to do duriing this time. A week of continual Alberta clippers would really make me smile!! Do you live in an open area? I havent seen any drifting of the old snow, its quite settled. And yes, a clipper train would make me smile as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 This is pretty cool shot of Chicago taken by Cmdr. Chris Hadfield from his mission in space. On the north side and north shore, a meso band off the lake dumped 1-2 inches of snow on a limited area. There were a few smaller events between then and now. Despite ORD's snow drought, not more than nine miles away from the airport I have a glacier of 2 inches. https://twitter.com/Cmdr_Hadfield/status/286932987407380480/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 GFS still won't blink...most offices are still riding the Euro...could we be looking at a pretty big failure for the Euro> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 GFS still won't blink...most offices are still riding the Euro...could we be looking at a pretty big failure for the Euro> Isn't it all the models versus the euro? Looks like the euro isn't as warm as yesterday. Northern Michigan is forecasted to hit the mid 30s while the euro has 40+.... So I'm not sure who they are going with. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Isn't it all the models versus the euro? Looks like the euro isn't as warm as yesterday. Jon maybe can't say as i have looked at anything else..i usually don't unless an event is imminent. either way, it's going to be a minor event for all....the good news is wave spacing looks good down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 The GFS took a step back towards the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 My main concern was to keep the warmup south of 44 degrees N... It now looks to go north of that. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 This is pretty cool shot of Chicago taken by Cmdr. Chris Hadfield from his mission in space. On the north side and north shore, a meso band off the lake dumped 1-2 inches of snow on a limited area. There were a few smaller events between then and now. Despite ORD's snow drought, not more than nine miles away from the airport I have a glacier of 2 inches. https://twitter.com/Cmdr_Hadfield/status/286932987407380480/photo/1 That a really cool shot! Thanks for sharing. You can really see the snow cover this morning across the entire region. Including the spot on the north side of Chicago. Was pretty chilly this morning @ 12°. Wind is making it feel just as chilly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 My main concern was to keep the warmup south of 44 degrees N... It now looks to go north of that. Jon verbatum, the GFS and its ensemble mean have 2m temps here getting no warmer than the mid-upper 30s. Its really not unheard of for surface temps to be much colder than the upper air numbers would indicate, but cue the "gfs has a cold bias 60s are on the way" posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 verbatum, the GFS and its ensemble mean have 2m temps here getting no warmer than the mid-upper 30s. Its really not unheard of for surface temps to be much colder than the upper air numbers would indicate, but cue the "gfs has a cold bias 60s are on the way" posts. I'd be a rich guy if I had a dollar for every time the GFS 2m temps were underdone. That being said, there is snowpack to deal with and some uncertainty about how things evolve as far as the cutoff so there are reasons to not go all out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 28F... should make it to freezing today. Looks to actually be melting a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Going to be a real bummer if we fall short of a record because of a scant inch that melts 30 minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Up to 31° here with a wind chill running in the upper teens. Definitely colder over heavy snow cover areas north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 27 here right now, should be able to make it into the low 30's this afternoon. Looks like freezing drizzle is possible tomorrow night in between the 2 s/w with dry upper levels and saturation near the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Up to 31° here with a wind chill running in the upper teens. Definitely colder over heavy snow cover areas north and west. Southeast too. Only 24 here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 The GFS is also bias in Summer. Nothing like 22-23C 850s, 26-27C 925mb, full sun in July and the GFS getting us to 90-92F when we reached 97-99F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Up to 31° here with a wind chill running in the upper teens. Definitely colder over heavy snow cover areas north and west. 34 on my thermometer. Bye bye snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 ORD off to the races again...5 degree jump there in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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