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12/30 Coastal Part II - Snowing Our Way Into NYE

Clinch Leatherwood

By Clinch Leatherwood,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Nice..I think most of C and E Ct is 7-11

I think it's hard for you and me. You will probably do a bit better but areas to your southeast are in much better shape. Ginx should jackpot.

Pretty much should be all snow from here on out for the CT shore. The warm layer around 2kft is gone (dual pol shows all snow) just have to get rid of the >0c air between 0-2kft which is taking place now.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I think it's hard for you and me. You will probably do a bit better but areas to your southeast are in much better shape. Ginx should jackpot.

Pretty much should be all snow from here on out for the CT shore. The warm layer around 2kft is gone (dual pol shows all snow) just have to get rid of the >0c air between 0-2kft which is taking place now.

I honestly don't see how much of thr Eastern 2/3 of entire state sees less than 7 inches

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

It's interesting on dual pol you could see what the issue was with the coastal CT rain. It really was a layer from like 2kft-4kft that was a bit too warm initially. You had melting flakes mixed with rain drops. Low CC. Once that layer cooled it took a bit of time (under an hour, generally) to cool the 0-2kft layer enough to give you snow down to the ground. It was easy to do but had that warm layer not been there initially it would have been almost all snow from the get go.

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RIcoastalWX

RIcoastalWX

Posted
Posted

I think it's hard for you and me. You will probably do a bit better but areas to your southeast are in much better shape. Ginx should jackpot.

Pretty much should be all snow from here on out for the CT shore. The warm layer around 2kft is gone (dual pol shows all snow) just have to get rid of the >0c air between 0-2kft which is taking place now.

31.6/29 - still struggling to go over to all snow. It's very close by - say a mile or two inland from me is all snow but along the immediate coast - the sleet just wont' give up.

The bouts of snow are more frequent and longer in duration but sleet is still the predominate form of precip.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

that was before the ccb started pushing n. precip definitely weakened as it developed to your south

Classic development, warm layers mix out, bombogenisis starts cranking, CCB expands to the NW, looks like a 6-8 for me. I think somewhere between PVD and the Cape sees a foot. Scooters parents more than likely.
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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

A keeper from Box, 421pm:

Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...

***a short duration but high impact snowstorm through late tonight

and travel is not recommended***

All the ingredients are coming together for a significant winter

storm across southern New England. Low pressure was in the early

stages of bombing off the Virginia coast and have noted some

lightning strikes over the past hour. In fact...the low pressure

system will undergo bombogenesis dropping nearly 25 mb in 12 hours!

This is a classic setup for a heavy snowfall across southern New

England. The worst conditions will probably be from around 5 PM

until midnight. So a short duration but high impact storm is

expected.

Given all the above factors...have expanded winter storm warnings

several counties further northwest. Even though quantitative precipitation forecast will be lower

across the interior...snow ratios will be higher and should be

enough for marginal Winter Storm Warning criteria. Snowfall

accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are anticipated from southern

New Hampshire/southwest and central Massachusetts...as well as northern CT. The latest

trends over the past 24 hours have been to increase quantitative precipitation forecast and place it

further northwest with the rapid intensifying storm. Feel that the

upgrade to a warning is the best move at this time. Latest radar

imagery and mesoscale models support these amounts.

The worst of the storm looks to hit interior Rhode Island/southeast

Massachusetts. Given the rapid intensification of the low pressure system a

very strong deformation zone should develop. Snow growth is quite

impressive...with the NAM indicating 30 to 50 mb/S of lift roughly

between 5 PM and midnight. This is supportive of 2 inch per how

snowfall rates and can/T even rule out a clap or two of thunder. It

appears there should be a swath of 6 to 12 inches of snow across

interior Rhode Island/interior southeast Massachusetts. It should be cold

enough for mainly snow in this region and may see a coastal front

setup...which would help in the higher amounts. Across the

immediate coast...enough of a marine layer and marginal 925 mb

temperatures may support a mixture for a time through early this

evening cutting down on accumulations a bit. The other thing will

have to keep an eye on is for a band of wet snow in this region to

result in some downed tree limbs/isolated power outages.

Across the cape and islands...it looks warm enough for much of the

precipitation to fall as rain through early evening. However...as

the low bombs out they will likely turn to a period of snow

particularly across the upper cape. That is the best chance for

seeing several inches of snow. Can/T rule out a sloppy inch or so

across the Outer-Cape/Nantucket...but that will depend upon how much

moisture is left of the backside.

Uncertainties... like any winter storm there are a few things that

will need to be closely monitored.

(1) we did upgrade to winter storm warnings across a good chunk of

the interior...based on the mesoscale models and latest radar

imagery. However...as the coastal undergoes bombogenesis it could

bring an end to the snow earlier than anticipated across the

interior. If this occurs...our snowfall amounts may be overdone in

this area.

(2) the exact placement of the rain/snow line across the far

southeast New England coast is uncertain. Snow accumulations may

end up higher or lower than forecast along the immediate South

Coast/coastal Plymouth County and the upper cape depending on the

exact thermal structure. Soundings show conditions becoming

isothermal...so an hour or two difference in the change over to snow

will make a big difference in accumulations.

(3) even high resolution models may be off with the exact placement

of heaviest snow. This will depend on very mesoscale features such

as exact locations of coastal front and how far west the intense quantitative precipitation forecast

field makes it. The heaviest snowfall could end up further

northwest/southeast than we have depicted in our forecast.

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