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12/30 Coastal Part II - Snowing Our Way Into NYE


Clinch Leatherwood

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Mid coast Bath east to DE Maine is the zone

I think you are right but that rain/snow line is going to be real close.

When I lived in Bath, we used to get some taint, but it would always be late in the game. Cool Spruce would be my 'benchmark'. If he was good, I was good. If he tainted, it was time to count the minutes.

Where is Cool Spruce anyway? Did he never make the move from Eastern to American?

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SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0122 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LONG ISLAND THRU MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 291922Z - 292315Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR

INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY 23-00Z...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH

02-03Z...AND PERHAPS BEYOND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH DEEPENING

OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST

ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR SINCE MID MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE

INDICATES THAT RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO

THE EVENING HOURS...AND BEYOND...AS IT MIGRATES INTO AREAS SOUTH AND

EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00-03Z. THIS IS EXPECTED

TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION

AND INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MID

ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC

PROFILES ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. EVEN

ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN

THE MID 30S...AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...COLD

ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE

21-00Z TIME FRAME.

HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND

EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT THROUGH MUCH OF RHODE ISLAND AND

A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE

BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...BY AROUND 00Z. THIS SHOULD OCCUR IN

CONJUNCTION WITH THE EVOLUTION OF DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A

NEWLY FORMING AND DEEPENING MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER...AS LIFT

INTENSIFIES IN THE LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR LARGE

DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. SUPPORTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER ON

THE ORDER OF .5 TO .75 INCHES...MAXIMUM SNOW RATES PROBABLY WILL

EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR...PERHAPS APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN

SHORTER-LIVED CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BURSTS.

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My area was just upgraded to a WSW!

..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WAS OVER SPREADING THE REGION AS OF MID AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER MIDNIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE NEAR ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR UNTREATED SURFACES.

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WSW updated for 6-12" interior RI and SE MA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
224 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

...A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT...

CTZ004-MAZ005>007-012>021-RIZ001>007-300330-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-121230T1200Z/
WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...FRAMINGHAM...
LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...
PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT
224 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND...FAR NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AS
WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...BUT A SWATH
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR RHODE ISLAND AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

* TIMING...SNOW WAS OVER SPREADING THE REGION AS OF MID AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW MAY INITIALLY BE MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG THE
COAST...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE EXPECTED.

* UNCERTAINTY...THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES INITIALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVY
BY EARLY EVENING...ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO HEAVY
SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD BE
LOWER IF RAIN LASTS LONGER.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL QUICKLY ACCUMULATE AND UNTREATED ROADS WILL
BECOME SNOW COVERED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POOR. IN
ADDITION...A SWATH OF WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

$$

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