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12/30 Coastal Part II - Snowing Our Way Into NYE


Clinch Leatherwood

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Dude. How much longer can it trend NW? We are less than 12 hours from the dang event.

It will be raining over Eastern SNE if you keep it trending.

LOL.

Any 'trends' in the next suite of runs will be significant for areas downstream (GYX./CAR). For here they'll merely reflect what we're reporting on the obs thread I think.

Congrats east of 190-395. The rest of us will enjoy our advisory refresher.

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More and people should agree with me. They'd get more snow and they'd lead happier lives.

Yeah there's going to be 12+ amounts. If I had to pick a spot I'd say Norfolk/Foxboro area of Mass over to Putnam ,CT

You've stayed steadfast. Good for you. I think we will make out well here. There were a few of us who saw this coming.

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where do you see that? curious to learn.

Well it's a little less here, but when you see that top layer follow a moist adiabat like that..or even if it tilts more to the left (this is conditionally unstable)..it's possible it could signal heavier bands of snow.

post-33-0-67159100-1356796164_thumb.gif

Here is a better example. Notice the top of this sounding bend back. It's in between the dry adiabatic lapse rate and moist adiabatic lapse rate...yet this parcel of air is moist. This means that the parcel is unstable and could be convective. Also, if there is any frontogenic forcing to help force the parcel to rise even more....the better chance you have to get heavier snow.

post-33-0-86528100-1356796396_thumb.gif

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It had the .5'' contour to us this run, but I looked at the Euro and the NAM and it doesn't quite reach us on them. Picturing lots of subsidence and 3-4'' out of this, not inclined to raise my expectations any more than that.

Pretty much agree with this. Fairly minor advisory snow for us. Someone in the bottom half of NH might sneak a weenie 5"

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Scott...new gfs has a decent signal for strong banding across all of SE Mass and RI...mid level frontogen values between 100-200 units with some negative epv on top...looks real good around 00z.

That's what it looked liked on the other products too. I'm hoping the frontogenesis and lift from 700-600 gets into this area..I think it will. Sometimes I like to look just NW of the big 700 omega gradient for the good stuff.

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Well it's a little less here, but when you see that top layer follow a moist adiabat like that..or even if it tilts more to the left (this is conditionally unstable)..it's possible it could signal heavier bands of snow.

Here is a better example. Notice the top of this sounding bend back. It's in between the dry adiabatic lapse rate and moist adiabatic lapse rate...yet this parcel of air is moist. This means that the parcel is unstable and could be convective. Also, if there is any frontogenic forcing to help force the parcel to rise even more....the better chance you have to get heavier snow.

Thanks Scott!

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It had the .5'' contour to us this run, but I looked at the Euro and the NAM and it doesn't quite reach us on them. Picturing lots of subsidence and 3-4'' out of this, not inclined to raise my expectations any more than that.

I have 3-6" for southern NH except 6-10" along the immediate MA border (expecting 6 not 10, but I like to keep my ranges even... not go 3-6/4-8 etc).

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That's what it looked liked on the other products too. I'm hoping the frontogenesis and lift from 700-600 gets into this area..I think it will. Sometimes I like to look just NW of the big 700 omega gradient for the good stuff.

Yeah, i like to look for the best banding to cling to the northern edge of the frontogen max...so if the gfs is a perfect prog that would be between pym and owd.

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I have 3-6" for southern NH except 6-10" along the immediate MA border (expecting 6 not 10, but I like to keep my ranges even... not go 3-6/4-8 etc).

That's me, I'm about 2 miles or so from the MA border. I don't know I just don't think I'll hit 6''...maybe I can weenie my way to 4.5'' or 5'' but even then I kinda doubt it. Probably won't even be a fluffy snow.

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Pretty much agree with this. Fairly minor advisory snow for us. Someone in the bottom half of NH might sneak a weenie 5"

I disagree the storm is stronger and further north than modeled. reports out of ohio and penn. is that what was expected for accumulations they actually received higher amounts. I think a good 4 to 6" is likely of coarse this is my opinion we shall see

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