moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Just a quick note...The SREF snowfall probabilities will be underdone. A group of SREF members (the ARW ones) have not been producing any snowfall for the last several weeks because of a bug...and will not be fixed for a few weeks. This will therefore lower the SREF mean by default. Thanks for the reminder on that! SREFs have pretty high probs for 2"/hr snows over SE MA, even 3"/hr over the Cape. The 700mb frontogenesis and EPV get right into BOS so hoping for that. Many people will be rocking out--have fun guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Once you remove the ARW members from the Sref plumes, It takes the mean from 4.82" to 7.23" snowfall here for PWM @09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Mitch FTW Mitch McCue @wxmanmitch This may turn into a significant snowstorm for the eastern half of MA, RI, and much of CT where 6-12" could fall, maybe more in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Thinking we might approach 6-8 here, but if we get 4-6 I will be happy. Possibly on the 6-8 but not likely and definitely on the being happy with 4-6. This one is mostly fun for SNE and that's all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks solid... NAM still with up to 0.5" QPF up here (even a spot in central/southern VT in excess of 0.5") coupled with upslope flow later tonight, could pull a surprise out of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I like the ability on the SREF plumes to take out the Ar members, increased model output when done. Greg Carbin at SPC really did a great job with that...awesome tool to have. We may have to go minimal warning for our entire immediate coast. The mid coast of maine for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Greg Carbin at SPC really did a great job with that...awesome tool to have. We may have to go minimal warning for our entire immediate coast. The mid coast of maine for sure. You at GYX today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 You at GYX today? Yes. Not on short term...but having lots of input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbob Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 SREFs have pretty high probs for 2"/hr snows over SE MA, even 3"/hr over the Cape. The 700mb frontogenesis and EPV get right into BOS so hoping for that. How about Northern RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 If you look at some of the products on the SPC SREF page (non plumes) and the HPC winter diagnostics tool...it screams SE MA blizz for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Greg Carbin at SPC really did a great job with that...awesome tool to have. We may have to go minimal warning for our entire immediate coast. The mid coast of maine for sure. oddly it works better with ipad than pc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 How about Northern RI? It basically stops at the I-95 region. Not that it is right, but shows you a sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 If you look at some of the products on the SPC SREF page (non plumes) and the HPC winter diagnostics tool...it screams SE MA blizz for a time. another great page, I know Phil is teetering but really its a classic SNE storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 RAP has it snowing for like 16 hours up here lol. C'mon backside upslope flow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks solid... NAM still with up to 0.5" QPF up here (even a spot in central/southern VT in excess of 0.5") coupled with upslope flow later tonight, could pull a surprise out of the mountains. I already have close to 2 inches, huge fluff balls falling out of the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Lol...new ruc (rap) has 0.8 liq for gyx now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Keep your map!! Did you make one? I'd bump up my totals a couple inches in each area at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 how far inland are you? I much rather be where you are than me today.. I might drive down there later if a band sets up just east of me.. the wife is working all day so I can go storm chasing today lol We might just miss out on the good stuff, but I'll take my 4-6" and run (and plow). We can make up some with heavy heavy slant sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I am still seeing a solid 6-8 here in NE Ct, with possibly some spot 10 inch on hills near RI line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Lol...new ruc (rap) has 0.8 liq for gyx now. Where do you get the QPF output from that model? All I know of is the NCEP maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Where do you get the QPF output from that model? All I know of is the NCEP maps. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yes. Not on short term...but having lots of input. I see CAR bumped 3 zones into WSW and moved WWA's further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 i'll be surprised if I get 3" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Where do you get the QPF output from that model? All I know of is the NCEP maps. I'm at work...I see it on AWIPS. But you can get it here... http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=rap_jet&domain=t3&run_time=29+Dec+2012+-+13Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I already have close to 2 inches, huge fluff balls falling out of the sky Nice... yeah I'm liking how this may be setting up. Looking at the forcing, there's the one mega band that develops over SE New England, but then there appears like another band well removed to the NW may linger from the Adirondacks into somewhere in north/central VT/NH/ME. There'll probably be a dead zone of subsidence between them but someone across the North Country could be very surprised if things line up. Radar looks great. Right now that axis to watch for those of us up north is from Rutland-Oswego-Buffalo-Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Holy crap to the nam. 1.33". Looks like warmest layer is below 950mb. Could be some fun later on this evening. Good spot. TAN and Foxhole should be ripping later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 another great page, I know Phil is teetering but really its a classic SNE storm It's not quite classic though - that's the problem. I feel like I'm going to bust one way or another though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12Z RGEM looks to have more or less held serve...maybe a tigher QPF shield surprisingly consistent all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Even the euro has 0.65" for me. Like c'mon OKX. They'll update this afternoon I bet Been expecting an upgrade from OKX here, too, based on all major models outputting at least .6 QPF for northern Middlesex. Most of the times I disagree with OKX, though, seems they end up right. Generally like our area for this storm, though. Don't expect to jackpot, but think 5-8 is a reasonable bet, with higher amounts if snowgrowth is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm at work...I see it on AWIPS. But you can get it here... http://rapidrefresh.... Dec 2012 - 13Z Cool thanks. Much better graphics on the whole than NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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