CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Would be funny if I can get near normal Dec snow with this, while being +4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAM cools BDR from 36 at onset of precip to 32 during most precip, GON 35 down to 33.. I wouldn't really worry about temps for most of CT except immediate SE corner maybe, cape is different story until the "mega-band" really cranks over there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I don't think it matters one iota, but with the tickles still coming NW you'd have to think the warnings are pushed west a bit. Agree. As of now, not a fan of how OKX is dealing with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 well you guys are saying i will be lucky to get a couple inches while not far away rips at two or three inches/hr and gets up to a foot. i appreciate the honesty and i am inclined to agree having lived through it enough times prior. better than being forecasted a lot of snow and being bummed out. i cannot move so please dont anyone suggest that. i will keep out hope someday for a 1888 redux as long as i live in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAM cools BDR from 36 at onset of precip to 32 during most precip, GON 35 down to 33.. I wouldn't really worry about temps for most of CT except immediate SE corner maybe, cape is different story until the "mega-band" really cranks over there.. You think I'm fine here? The meteorology says I'm fine with backing flow and dynamical cooling. Modelology says no. I tend to think ill be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Just a quick note...The SREF snowfall probabilities will be underdone. A group of SREF members (the ARW ones) have not been producing any snowfall for the last several weeks because of a bug...and will not be fixed for a few weeks. This will therefore lower the SREF mean by default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 In the SREF plumes, there's pretty much two camps for BOS. One around 2-2.5, and another at 6+. Yeah, nothing like good convergence of solutions..lol. There is also two QPF camps...clearly some say comme head, some do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Agree. As of now, not a fan of how OKX is dealing with this. I dont understand why they have 15 miles inland in southern CT getting 1-3" on the snow map.. Even BDR is forecast to be freezing and thats right on the water.. I think the 4-6" line should be all the way down to the coast.. And I'm almost certain there will be a 6-10" band somewhere in OKX, although they did mention somwhere might exceed 6".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Just a quick note...The SREF snowfall probabilities will be underdone. A group of SREF members (the ARW ones) have not been producing any snowfall for the last several weeks because of a bug...and will not be fixed for a few weeks. This will therefore lower the SREF mean by default. Did you find anything out about what's wrong with the NAM and when we can stop tossing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Thinking we might approach 6-8 here, but if we get 4-6 I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 pouring snow here in the southern adriondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 You think I'm fine here? The meteorology says I'm fine with backing flow and dynamical cooling. Modelology says no. I tend to think ill be ok. how far inland are you? I much rather be where you are than me today.. I might drive down there later if a band sets up just east of me.. the wife is working all day so I can go storm chasing today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I dont understand why they have 15 miles inland in southern CT getting 1-3" on the snow map.. Even BDR is forecast to be freezing and thats right on the water.. I think the 4-6" line should be all the way down to the coast.. And I'm almost certain there will be a 6-10" band somewhere in OKX, although they did mention somwhere might exceed 6".. I think new London and middlesex should be under a warning for 5-9" on average for the zones, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 how far inland are you? I much rather be where you are than me today.. I might drive down there later if a band sets up just east of me.. the wife is working all day so I can go storm chasing today lol I'm three miles off the sound at 200ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yeah, nothing like good convergence of solutions..lol. There is also two QPF camps...clearly some say comme head, some do not. For HYA, most are 1-4", there's none from 4-8", and then there's 6 from 8-11". I don't envy Phil. Hell of a forecast for the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Latest RAP destroys eastern ma. brings 1" qpf to ma/nh border Agree. As of now, not a fan of how OKX is dealing with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Did you find anything out about what's wrong with the NAM and when we can stop tossing it? I haven't yet. Need a bigger sample size. I'm going to toss some emails around this coming week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 OT, just saw that David Brown is leaving channel 5...I always thought he did a pretty good job around this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhj Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 LIVING ON THE WATER HERE IN NIANTIC ALL MY LIFE YOU GET A FEEL IF YOU ARE ABOUT TO BE SCREWED BY THE EASTERLY DEATH WIND!!! I DO NOT SEE THAT AND BELEIVE WE WILL HAVE A SNOWFALL OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES IN THE SE PART OF THE STATE........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 meso models dont show heavy snow til 5 or 6pm even for CT, thats about 3 hours pushed back from last night.. i think steady snow between 2-4... becoming heavy 5 or 6pm til 8-10pm.. snow totals will depend on getting heavy snow for an hour or 4 or 5 hours like some might.. looking like this could be a 4 hour duration storm for some unlucky folks, maybe 10 hours for people on east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Holy crap to the nam. 1.33". Looks like warmest layer is below 950mb. Could be some fun later on this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 OT, just saw that David Brown is leaving channel 5...I always thought he did a pretty good job around this area He was always in the more conservative camp IMO. He left the bigger calls to the chief meteorologists. Liking 6-12" down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 SREFs have pretty high probs for 2"/hr snows over SE MA, even 3"/hr over the Cape. The 700mb frontogenesis and EPV get right into BOS so hoping for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think new London and middlesex should be under a warning for 5-9" on average for the zones, personally. me too almost every model minus the EURO shows enough QPF to support that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Holy crap to the nam. 1.33". Looks like warmest layer is below 950mb. Could be some fun later on this evening. You're getting crushed. 8-12". Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 funny, some fantastic snows well to the north today while its high and dry down this way, this thing has really trended north and west, much stronger northern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I like the ability on the SREF plumes to take out the Ar members, increased model output when done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Beautiful snow globe at Okemo right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Holy crap to the nam. 1.33". Looks like warmest layer is below 950mb. Could be some fun later on this evening. Keep your map!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 me too almost every model minus the EURO shows enough QPF to support that.. Even the euro has 0.65" for me. Like c'mon OKX. They'll update this afternoon I bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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