weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM looks SE for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I still can't believe after all the disco and talk from Will and Ekster that people are using or looking at the Nam. you are llike a broken record,we are only discussing what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Odd looking evolution at 700 mb on the NAM. Could almost envision a screw zone of subsidence between the warm advection QG forcing near the cape and the best height falls/cyclonic vorticity advection over NNE/Upstate NY. Add in an unfavorable 700mb track to keep the best frontogenesis out of SNE (at least initially.. I saw 12z GFS did jump the mid level low center to off the Cape) I wouldn't get overly excited yet. That said... I just got in from a day skiing so have only had a very brief glimpse at things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Monster hit isn't it? 18z? On cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 you are llike a broken record, we are only discussing what it shows. And people it seems think it might be correct whether it shows a blizzard or a SE shift. It's not helpful at all in determining what this storm will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 SREFs are exactly what we've been thinking...widespread 2-5" with an area of 6" around N RI/SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM looked a littler sharper with that s/w. Pretty good hit SE MA. Ryan I saw your point too on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM looked a littler sharper with that s/w. Pretty good hit SE MA. Ryan I saw your point too on the models. Impressive vorticity there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 you are llike a broken record, we are only discussing what it shows. Yes Agree, Nobody's running and spiking balls over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 SREFs are exactly what we've been thinking...widespread 2-5" with an area of 6" around N RI/SE Mass. Well tbh .. You have been thinking inland snowshowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Monster hit isn't it? 18z? On cell looks like the 0.5 contour is further edit: west east, but why discuss the NAM? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM actually has a stronger low, so even though its a tad further SE, the precip shield is more expansive and slightly more intense along the SE mass coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yea 18z NAM precip shield is actually bit more expansive, just a tick higher QPF totals, .5"+ GON-SFZ-BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 And people it seems think it might be correct whether it shows a blizzard or a SE shift. It's not helpful at all in determining what this storm will do really just look at it for trends, not exact snowfall or r/s line etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Eyeballing 18z NAM has precip from ~0.3" NW Mass. to ~1.25" outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 trough slightly more tilted... even though SLP appears slightly more SE, CCB now deeper into SEMA roughly: .5-.75 Boston to Plymouth .75-1 Plymouth to Canal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yes Agree, Nobody's running and spiking balls over it Yes that is what troublesome, Tip, Ray and others have said similar things. Nobody has gone hog wild with predictions, been very tempered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think Steve to inland new London cty in CT jackpots relative to CT. Maybe even middlesex cty. Probably 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hi- res NAM from ewall is putting out some impressive qpf totals for the Cape. But sharp gradient to the NW, which falls in line with recent thinking. Link for those interested: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Seems in the last two years models get way over analyzed, every single detail from run to run model to model just under the microscope, sometimes history and climo are more useful in the small nuances. Looks like all of NE gets snow with perhaps two maximums, one over ski country and one closer to the south coast up into eastern mass. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think Steve to inland new London cty in CT jackpots relative to CT. Maybe even middlesex cty. Probably 4-7". SREF mean is about 5.5 for me. I think your range is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yes that is what troublesome, Tip, Ray and others have said similar things. Nobody has gone hog wild with predictions, been very tempered. Every model is discussed on here in some way, But it still good to look at for trends, We all know its not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think Steve to inland new London cty in CT jackpots relative to CT. Maybe even middlesex cty. Probably 4-7". I would think the entire I-395 corridor does well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ginx post that Mosdis satellite grab from today please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I would think the entire I-395 corridor does well Yea climo says that in this situation. OT but nobody mentioned, fooking cold Euro run, holy heck and oh who starts the Jan 3rd threat thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think this could end up pretty solid for eastern areas. Probably low end warning critieria for interior SE MA and maybe into N RI. I think we might get one more small bump NW for close to our final outcome. The commahead/CCB is going to be insane so if it can back west a bit more into the BOS metro region, then there is bust potential in the positive direction. I haven't over analyzed the soundings, but just looking at the synoptics and such, I'd bet dollars to donuts there is probably aheavy banding signal in that commahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 trough slightly more tilted... even though SLP appears slightly more SE, CCB now deeper into SEMA roughly: .5-.75 Boston to Plymouth .75-1 Plymouth to Canal Thats a good point even though the s/w was a hair SE, It still got qpf back here more then 12z had up this way anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think this could end up pretty solid for eastern areas. Probably low end warning critieria for interior SE MA and maybe into N RI. I think we might get one more small bump NW for close to our final outcome. The commahead/CCB is going to be insane so if it can back west a bit more into the BOS metro region, then there is bust potential in the positive direction. I haven't over analyzed the soundings, but just looking at the synoptics and such, I'd bet dollars to donuts there is probably aheavy banding signal in that commahead. You know I'm watching it like a hawk. Come to daddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ginx post that Mosdis satellite grab from today please http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=a1&product=true_color&date=2012_12_28_363&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true§or=USA4&resolution=250m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think this could end up pretty solid for eastern areas. Probably low end warning critieria for interior SE MA and maybe into N RI. I think we might get one more small bump NW for close to our final outcome. The commahead/CCB is going to be insane so if it can back west a bit more into the BOS metro region, then there is bust potential in the positive direction. I haven't over analyzed the soundings, but just looking at the synoptics and such, I'd bet dollars to donuts there is probably aheavy banding signal in that commahead. I agree. I think the jump of best forcing and mid level low centers will be too late for my backyard (probably a 1-3 or 2-4 kinda deal most of CT) but once the mid level low jumps it will rip for a eastern areas. I like the PVD to Sharon/Foxborough kinda deal south toward TAN and depending on boundary layer issues the canal and places like Sandwich etc. When you get a jump of 850/700mb centers you can get sort of a sucker hole when that occurs. If I were to pick a place for that to occur it would be E NY and W SNE lol. If that jump can happen earlier then we'd be in better shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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