ChrisM Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I was wondering the same thing but then I saw it was the entire 84 hour run...there is some overrunning precip that comes in in the final 6-12 hours on the NAM run. Hm, I do think im good for 3 or 4 here anyway...guess its a nowcast thing but I gotta go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That makes me laugh every time. . Especially cause it was being referenced as nri and e ct I think...not the berks to orh cty to my area. Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The water vapor loop is very impressive, makes you wonder how we won't get smoked....but the nuances of the developing secondary robbing the primary of moisture and the convection associated wiht it is something we wouldn't be able to see on the WV loop 12-18 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 . Especially cause it was being referenced as nri and e ct I think...not the berks to orh cty to my area. Wtf? Kevin likes to pretend his area is ground zero a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 FWIW...EC ens QPF 0.50" line runs from about GON-PVD-BOS. It's a slight tick NW from the op. The 0.75" gets to around PYM too whereas the op runs it somewhere between MVY and ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Kevin likes to pretend his area is ground zero a lot. And overestimate potential snowfall by 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Kevin likes to pretend his area is ground zero a lot. I think he does have more snow than me this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The water vapor loop is very impressive, makes you wonder how we won't get smoked....but the nuances of the developing secondary robbing the primary of moisture and the convection associated wiht it is something we wouldn't be able to see on the WV loop 12-18 hours out. I figured something like that but man when you look at all the moisture over the lower Ohio Valley moving NE (not ENE) it makes you think it will be snowing pretty good tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Kevin likes to pretend his area is ground zero always i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I figured something like that but man when you look at all the moisture over the lower Ohio Valley moving NE (not ENE) it makes you think it will be snowing pretty good tomorrow morning. Models have a nice area moving into NNE, but then have it go poof as the secondary develops. I bet you see some snow related to the original disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 FWIW...EC ens QPF 0.50" line runs from about GON-PVD-BOS. It's a slight tick NW from the op. The 0.75" gets to around PYM too whereas the op runs it somewhere between MVY and ACK. Thats actually pretty impressive. The ensembles have actually been a bit more juiced than OP runs today. Both GEFS/Euro and even the SREFs vs the NAM runs. Not really sure what that means...obviously a compact system, the OP runs are handling it a bit differently then the lower resolution ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Models have a nice area moving into NNE, but then have it go poof as the secondary develops. I bet you see some snow related to the original disturbance. You can really see it fall apart on the 1hrly sim radar loops as the secondary coastal takes over.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well, this is the most uplifting news I've had for mby--suspect many folks removed from the bulk of the action would concur. Albany has just put my neighboring zones (northern Berkshire and Windham counties along with others in their CWA) in and advisory. Give me hope when north and west of me get the nod. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MODERATE IN INTENSITY BY THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Models have a nice area moving into NNE, but then have it go poof as the secondary develops. I bet you see some snow related to the original disturbance. somewhere above .25 qpf has been consistent today so I'd think the forecast for 3-4 inches will be on target. A fast moving 3-4 inch snowfall can seem like a real nice storm for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Does 5-8 sound reasonable for Cumberland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Why can't we get the fab defomation that NNY and S QB got yesterday? Was that related to the dying primary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think MPM has the greatest ZFP and PnC fetish...it rivals his QPF fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not for nothing, but there is a rather unstable layer from 500-400mb on the soundings at 03z tomorrow. That might help. Little -EPV maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Point and crap from box for places close in hartford county has 3-7, still1-3 here from Aly but their wwa disco says 4-6. Lets rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 GGEM similar to RGEM...though it doesn't extend the 0.5 quite as far back west. But not surprised overall...its usually very similar to its mesoscale cousin inside of 24h except just a hair more tame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This is an interesting thing - kinda almost want the primary to hold on in this case: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Uncle looks juiced. Of course we can't see the 36 to 42 qpf total but going by the entry and entrance views it looks like a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Does 5-8 sound reasonable for Cumberland? As of the latest data, yes that sounds good 8 might be a bit high 5 or 6 might have a better chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This is an interesting thing - kinda almost want the primary to hold on in this case: That would thrown an interesting wrench in the works.... Off to bed. Hope the ec and 06z runs look great fir all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Uncle looks juiced. Of course we can't see the 36 to 42 qpf total but going by the entry and entrance views it looks like a nice hit. Yeah I was thinking looking at the 5h chart and the 36h sfc/qpf map that it was going to give us a solution that makes us think it got into the leftover eggnog tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Sticking with my thoughts. Map coming within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Good to know. We just got TruVu Max at PSU and now can obviously use the RPM in our products...trying to figure out its strengths and weaknesses. Heard that you made our current graphics way back in the day when you were a student there! Glad my legacy lives on!!! I loved seeing my old showfx scenes from '04 sticking around! Seriously though with max the rpm gives you a lot of great ways to display things. I just feel like deterministic totals/amounts are generally a bad way to go. Even if you're showing "what one model shows" I feel like it wastes a lot of time explaining and in general is confusing. That's just my opinion though there are many better ways to present WX on tv than what i do I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yeah I was thinking looking at the 5h chart and the 36h sfc/qpf map that it was going to give us a solution that makes us think it got into the leftover eggnog tonight. Still a global. Did the 0.5" on the gem get back this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Still a global. Did the 0.5" on the gem get back this way? Yeah it did. Looks like at least HVN east got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 By the way, the north american continent holds quite a bit of the share of snow pack below the 45th parallel over all the N hemisphere: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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