N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not direct comparison wrt to strength and totals, but 12/09/05 had lp over buzz bay and heaviest snow into nw mass. Where do meso's track the lp comp w globals. Any response greatly appreciated as I'm on mobile and can't look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 this is the reason people weenie out http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/friday-night-updated-snow-map/3302864 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I posted about it as a joke...in all honesty, the NAM hasn't been any better recently. Even the SREFs have been pretty cruddy recently too. The meso models as a whole have not had their finest winter so far. Which is unfortunate, because this is the type of event where the mesos might be more useful....but since we can't trust them at all right now, we are left waiting for the globals to come out and only talk about the mesos in passing. Not that it should have any bearing on this event ... but the NAM was actually pretty good on this last system with the exception of the llv temperature fields - which is odd; you'd think the resolution would have been colder during the first half to 2/3rd of the event. But it's low placement was pretty darn good in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 this is the reason people weenie out http://www.accuweath...now-map/3302864 He is worse then JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 ya - it's the product for all the "timeline" graphics on most all Boston channels now Ah... thought so. They usually say "it probably will not happen like this..." Sarah W (Fox-25) likes a general 3-6" for MA to the NH border, 6+ in the SE area neat TAN, Foxboro, Ekster's old snow hole, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 The RGEM is still weenie-ing out with warning criteria for most of SNE. Need to wait about 40 minutes for any globals to come out. It's on Will no need to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 RGEM passes the center of low pressure ~5 miles SE of the benchmark maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 this is the reason people weenie out http://www.accuweath...now-map/3302864 that map is not horrible in my area.. 3-6 is what I've been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm not sure if meso have had any compact vorts to track this year, but my memory isn't stellar. They seem like they are red flags, but I'm wondering where they take lp track. The srefs seem to show a low end warning event for many se of newburyport to 495/pike sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microbursts Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yeah, I've noticed the WSI RPM jump in precip... warm and unstable easterly flow can help trigger some mesoscale banding... have to keep an eye on the 700 mb isobars. If the isobars begin to tighten, intensifying due to frontal forcing is possible. Also have to keep an eye on the RH values... near 90 % and strong lift is present in the mid layers is best case for development. Also, the most important region to focus on for possible snow banding is where peak dendritic growth could occur. Temperatures between -5 °C and -30 °C are most conducive to snow crystallization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Continued remarkable difference in the H5 VM on the 0Z NAM vs. latest RAP... even the 0Z NAM was still way too weak with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I was joking Ryan, Bob did use it on the Nov 7 storm on air. Whatever happened to our AMWX WRF? Let's get crazy and blend every model run tonight , Nam to Nuts. Throw out the high throw out the low. Put it all together and call it Kcrap. Then sell it as a next generation 4 var meso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 0z Gfs looks a little SE from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Whatever happened to our AMWX WRF? heh...I run it now, but I put it briefly into hibernation until Johnwow was ready with the web interface for it. The computer it runs on (the beast) is loud and scary...it sounds like a helicopter coming in for a landing and it has so many blue LEDs I feel like I'm in a night club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 basically same as NAM, more compact QPF field (w/ exception of level of QPF on cape) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 GFS didn;t change a whole bunch for most of the region. It got heavier over the Cape though. The half inch line was maybe a hair SE but really negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 3 to 6 looks the way to go for now more or less depending how things trend in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAM clown: http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=OKX Congrats Ryan, Wiz, Chris M and whoever is in the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 2-4. stay the course. sne snowbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 well thats all for me for today. hopeful i can sneak an inch or two out of this whole mess before it pulls offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 stay the course. sne snowbelt. Honestly if you get the comma head, it may be subsidence zone here. I'm not terribly bullish here at the moment. The only thing that may benefit me briefly is a coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yeah it's worth a look but it rarely sways my decision making process. I never show it on tv for snow or rain totals. Good to know. We just got TruVu Max at PSU and now can obviously use the RPM in our products...trying to figure out its strengths and weaknesses. Heard that you made our current graphics way back in the day when you were a student there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not direct comparison wrt to strength and totals, but 12/09/05 had lp over buzz bay and heaviest snow into nw mass. Where do meso's track the lp comp w globals. Any response greatly appreciated as I'm on mobile and can't look at it This is the last thing I wanted to read as I prepare myself for 2". Leading edge of precip is now into SW PA (at least the returns are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAM clown: http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=OKX Congrats Ryan, Wiz, Chris M and whoever is in the Berks How did it even come up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 How did it even come up with that? I was wondering the same thing but then I saw it was the entire 84 hour run...there is some overrunning precip that comes in in the final 6-12 hours on the NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I just got in from dinner and the movies, looked at the radar and thought "oh my goodness"....weenieing out here but that radar is impressive and that thing is moving northeast. Is it going to get shredding by confluence or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 How did it even come up with that? Not really sure...good lift and saturation in the snow growth zone producing high ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I was wondering the same thing but then I saw it was the entire 84 hour run...there is some overrunning precip that comes in in the final 6-12 hours on the NAM run. Ohhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAM clown: http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=OKX Congrats Ryan, Wiz, Chris M and whoever is in the Berks What is this map? The title says "New Snow or Snow Depth". Since we already have more than it says we're going to have, it's not snow depth. But, LOL about 'new snow'. What ass are they pulling that out of? stay the course. sne snowbelt. That makes me laugh every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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